Simple evaluation question

[humilities]

[hv=pc=n&s=sat32h54dkt72ca87&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1dp1sp2cp]133|200[/hv]

 

Regional Swiss with an occasional partner, we play pretty vanilla 2/1. Regarding opening bids, we open all 12s and decent unbalanced 11s; we do not open balanced 11s.

 

Do you consider this an invitational hand (our bid for this is 3D) or a GF hand (2H 4sf followed by 3D)? Obviously this is better than it's face value of 11, is it good enough to force 5D? Will you pass 3NT?

 

Possibly relevant details:

- we haven't discussed 1444, so I don't know if he'd bid this way with that shape

- I'm pretty sure he would not bid this way with any 1345

- If you bid 2H (4SF) you cannot get out in 4D after a failed 3NT attempt (should you want to do so). You are 100% game forced.

 

Thanks for your input.

[mgoetze]

AAK is great but we do have a balanced hand and yet I can easily imagine 3NT playing poorly opposite some minimum openers. 5♦ looks like a good target but we still need partner to have a little something extra, so it's 3♦ for me.

[mycroft]

Is partner going to pass a flat 14 or an 1=3=4=5 15 when you invite? Better GF then. My partners won't.

[NickRW]

Dunno. If you fg you'll find a few games you wouldn't otherwise. If you invite you'll avoid a few bad games. Personally I'd invite - but it is extremely close.

[whereagles]

Invite. If pard accepts, I think I'll steer away from 3NT.

[Free]

+1 for the invite

[humilities]

OP here, thanks all for the feedback, I too felt this was an invite.

 

Followup question: when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?

[TylerE]

Red @ IMPs? Why haven't I bid 3N yet? Unless partner is opening a lot of really bad hands (which he shouldn't in 2nd) we should be making at least the 32% of the time or so we need to to show an IMP gain in the long term.

[mgoetze]

OP here, thanks all for the feedback, I too felt this was an invite.

 

Followup question: when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?

If partner wanted my input he could have asked for it. Pass.

[masse24]

when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?

 

The thought would not cross my mind. I have described my hand.

If partner wanted to go slamming, he could have initiated a slam conversation. He didn't.

[mikestar13]

OP here, thanks all for the feedback, I too felt this was an invite.

 

Followup question: when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?

 

Obvious pass. If partner accepts we are in a game force, so he can bid 4♦ with slam interest. 5♦ is a sign off opposite an invitation, as 3NT would have been.

3NT should be OK if partner bids it, he won't do so without good heart cards, as the lead is marked on this bidding.

Partner can accept by bidding 3♥ if he needs heart help, which you will deny by bidding 4♦/5♦.

Note that 4♦ by you (a limited hand) in this sequence can be passed.

[the hog]

3D for me. If pd bids 5 I will pass.

[the hog]

Red @ IMPs? Why haven't I bid 3N yet? Unless partner is opening a lot of really bad hands (which he shouldn't in 2nd) we should be making at least the 32% of the time or so we need to to show an IMP gain in the long term.

 

"Why haven't I bid 3N yet?"

Because pd has shown 9 cards in the ms and the H lead is pinpointed. This seems like a good reason not to bid 3NT.

[Free]

OP here, thanks all for the feedback, I too felt this was an invite.

 

Followup question: when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?

I invited, partner accepted, there's nothing else to think about.

[mcphee]

I feel that bidding 2H 4th suit is a massive overbid, it is not even a close choice IMHO.

3D is what this is worth.

[NickRW]

Followup question: when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?

 

To be fair, I'd think "gosh I've got a good invite with controls" and think about it for a second. Then sanity would prevail. As others have pointed out, there were heaps of other things partner could have done other than pass or sign off in game.

[rmnka447]

Red @ IMPs? Why haven't I bid 3N yet? Unless partner is opening a lot of really bad hands (which he shouldn't in 2nd) we should be making at least the 32% of the time or so we need to to show an IMP gain in the long term.

The first priority at IMPs is to bid the safest game when bidding game.

 

As the Hog says, the ♥ lead is pinpointed. Partner has at least 8+ minor cards (and probably 9+ a good part of the time). That doesn't leave much room for many ♥s. If the opponents hold 9+ ♥ and your side has a single ♥ stopper, your side will have to have 9 running tricks to avoid being set. Do you see anything in your hand that makes you think that might be the case? Additionally, if you bid 3 NT, the lead will be through partner's stopper whatever it may be.

 

If you invite with 3 ♦ and partner bids 3 NT, you'll sit. Then, at least a ♥ lead will be coming toward partner's stopper. On a good day, that may even allow partner to create a 2nd stopper or potential 2nd stopper.

 

If partner bids 3 ♥ over 3 ♦ looking for ♥ help, you'll retreat to 4 ♦ and partner can decide whether to bid the ♦ game or not.

 

Then, you've given it your best shot.

[humilities]

OP again - thanks all for the feedback. I bid the hand as suggested here (3D, pass) however my partner's argument was twofold:

 

1. It seemed a bad idea to him to make a slam try with only one keycard opposite an invitational hand

2. With three keycards opposite a jump to 5D, how could 6 not have a decent play? (obviously he thought he could make 5 missing all those cards)

 

His argument is logical, which is why I thought I'd get some feedback. Thanks!

 

his hand, fwiw,

x

KJ

AQxxx

KQJ10x

 

Obviously I could construct a 5D bid for him that has no play for 6 (spade void and Qxx of H or some such) but I think most 5D bids will have a good play for 6D, so I see his point...

Edited November 11, 2014 by humilities

[PhilKing]

There is a lot of really impressive hand evaluation in this thread. Game is excellent opposite some pretty ordinary minimums, eg:

 

♠x ♥Kxx ♦Axxxx ♣KQxx

 

Partner will be wowed by your judgement when 12 tricks roll in.

 

And game is virtually solid opposite a monster such as:

 

♠x ♥xxx ♦AQxxx ♣KQJx

 

It's not exactly farfetched to assume partner is suitable, since he is pretty likely to have a stiff spade if you think about it. Hands such as:

 

♠Kx ♥Qx ♦Axxxx ♣KJxx

 

will generally just rebid 1NT, and with a 3154 minimum, partner raises spades. Give partner an extra length card somewhere and game will generally be better still. ♠x ♥Kx ♦AJ98x♣KJxxx.

 

And if anyone cares whether these are just constructions off the top of my head, they are not. They all occurred in the FIRST TEN HANDS of a short simulation on the playbridge generator. It's a clear game force imo, and then there is no need to double-cross partner later.

[humilities]

There is a lot of really impressive hand evaluation in this thread. Game is excellent opposite some pretty ordinary minimums, eg:

 

Dammit Phil, I was just starting to feel good about my bidding. I don't need you and your fancy "data" ruining my comforting cloak of conformity and conventional wisdom!

[neilkaz]

I invite and if PD bids 3NT I know he's heard the bidding and that he knows a ♥ lead is coming so I will pass.

[yunling]

2♥. In my evaluator, this hand worth 12.75 before adjustment, which is just enough for a game force. Also, contrary to common knowledge, the value goes up considering partner's shape.

[mike777]

OP again - thanks all for the feedback. I bid the hand as suggested here (3D, pass) however my partner's argument was twofold:

 

1. It seemed a bad idea to him to make a slam try with only one keycard opposite an invitational hand

2. With three keycards opposite a jump to 5D, how could 6 not have a decent play? (obviously he thought he could make 5 missing all those cards)

 

His argument is logical, which is why I thought I'd get some feedback. Thanks!

 

his hand, fwiw,

x

KJ

AQxxx

KQJ10x

 

Obviously I could construct a 5D bid for him that has no play for 6 (spade void and Qxx of H or some such) but I think most 5D bids will have a good play for 6D, so I see his point...

 

good thread with good questions and responses.

 

For starters pard has one keycard but also the QD.

 

pard has a 4 loser hand opposite an invite(8loser hand) ltc 24-4-8=12 tricks

pard has extra shape and extra hcp

bottom line your pard has an easy slam try at a minimum.

 

btw I would have taken his 5d bid as showing a 5 loser hand so pass 5d. 24-5-8=11

btw2 responder hand is closer to an adjusted 7.5 loser hand.

plus add in cover cards, etc.

[rmnka447]

OP again - thanks all for the feedback. I bid the hand as suggested here (3D, pass) however my partner's argument was twofold:

 

1. It seemed a bad idea to him to make a slam try with only one keycard opposite an invitational hand

2. With three keycards opposite a jump to 5D, how could 6 not have a decent play? (obviously he thought he could make 5 missing all those cards)

 

His argument is logical, which is why I thought I'd get some feedback. Thanks!

 

his hand, fwiw,

x

KJ

AQxxx

KQJ10x

 

Obviously I could construct a 5D bid for him that has no play for 6 (spade void and Qxx of H or some such) but I think most 5D bids will have a good play for 6D, so I see his point...

Partner's hand is a big player!

 

When you bid 3 ♦, all you know about partner's hand is that he holds both minors. It could be as bad as something like ♠ xx ♥ KJ ♦ AQxxx ♣ Kxxx -- where even 5 ♦ has no play. All you can do is to bid your hand and wait for partner to make the next move.

 

By LTC, partner's hand is a 4 loser hand. Opposite a fitting invitational hand (typically about 8 losers), partner using LTC should see that slam is a possibility if you have the right cards. So, it's up to partner to make the first move toward slam. If and when partner makes a move, you will definitely encourage and cooperate in further slam investigation because you have great cards for an invitational hand.

[aguahombre]

Yes to the theme of the previous 2 posts. It is opener, while accepting the game try who, with a hand such as he had, should do something other than just leap to 5D...then, only then, would Responder fall in love with his/her controls.

 

However, my better half says she would Minorwood a 3D invite (4D) without further ado holding X KJ AQXXX KQJTX, so I wouldn't have to fall in love with my controls as Responder, merely show them.

Edited November 12, 2014 by aguahombre