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Lead problem


whereagles

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The opps rate to have a minimum of 7 spades between them

I hold another 5

Are you sure about that? Responder transferred to spades, but then didn't seem to let the partnership get out in 6 even if opener had some preference for playing in spades. The transfer might simply have been a misdirection. Or, maybe responder has three kings and figured he could find out everything he wanted to know by setting spades and asking for keycards (whoops, I have a king, I guess that's not it). I don't know, but I'm far from confident that responder actually has spades.

 

Unlike Free, I'm far from confident that a heart lead kills them even if partner does have the queen. And, a heart lead could easily blow up a trick, possibly declarer's 12th.

 

I'd probably lead a middle spade, like hrothgar. Mostly because it looks like the lead least likely to give away a trick or take away a guess from declarer.

 

Tim

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my 5 spades are to the 9. So they still have spade tricks. Further, all minor suit finesses are on

Agreed. They have 5 Spade tricks. With this said and done, a Spade lead isn't going to blow a trick. The Heart lead could very easily be into a tenace...

 

The Heart lead will work spectacularly well if partner has the Ace. Its likely to break the contract if partner has the Heart Queen soemthing on the side. However, I think that its more likely that the opponents hold the Ace and King of Hearts than that partner holds the Ace or Queen.

 

I could be wrong, especially given the opponent's Spade length. It would be interestng to see a simulation.

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The opps rate to have a minimum of 7 spades between them 

I hold another 5

Are you sure about that? Responder transferred to spades, but then didn't seem to let the partnership get out in 6 even if opener had some preference for playing in spades. The transfer might simply have been a misdirection.

Guess it is kinda hypocritical for me to trust the opponent's auctions

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