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Your Lead 1


lamford

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I think this is tough. At mps, I think a diamond is a strong favourite but I am not sure that it offers the best chance to get 4 tricks, as opposed to the best chance to get 3.

 

Assume we can grab 2 diamonds and partner's likely 4 card trump suit comes in as another winner. Now declarer probably has the rest of the tricks, since clubs behave so well for him.

 

However, I lead the diamond Ace since I think that it needs a little less from partner to be the winning lead than does a heart. A black suit is impossible.

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[hv=pc=n&n=s2ht864daqj94c876&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=p1cp1hp2s(FG)p3cp3sp4sppp]133|200[/hv]

What do you lead? A strong London league; if you know the hand, comment but do not say what works.

IMO A = 10, Q = 9, x = 8, x = 7. Q is an attempt at the brilliancy prize, in case partner has Kx -- although, perhaps, with that holding, partner might win the brilliancy prize, himself, by unblocking on the A lead.
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If it promises 5-6, a lead looks tempting. We might get a first round ruff on a good day; if not, hopefully we can manage a stop from P, a round of s to hold up so I can give him a second round ruff, and then a fourth trick in the wash (apparently that DK that mikeh is intending to collect).

 

Agree with WesleyC - passing 1 was weedy. 2 for me.

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I lead the DA as well. For those who would like to overcall, an overcall that takes away no room should show a good hand. This does not fall into the definition of a good hand. I notice this was a "A strong London league", so I am not surprised there was no overcall.
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I lead the DA as well. For those who would like to overcall, an overcall that takes away no room should show a good hand. This does not fall into the definition of a good hand. I notice this was a "A strong London league", so I am not surprised there was no overcall.

I agree with your view of a 1 overcall. It is not that it contains any great danger, but it should show a good hand. However, I disagree strongly with the A lead. In my view a club is a stand-out. It beats the contract most of the time partner has a void, and may beat the contract when partner has a trump trick and the ace of hearts and a singleton club. Partner had xxxx AKxx xxxxx none and a club lead beat the contract immediately (declarer was 5-1-1-6 with a good hand). But if he had held Axx Axxx xxxxx x a club lead would still have been a huge winner.

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It seems to me that you have two chances here

 

(1) Start forcing declarer immediately, and try to give partner trump control.

(2) Try to set up a club ruff.

 

I think that option A is more likely. Put me down for the diamond ace.

 

I do not think that a club void is at all likely. With 3-4 in the black suits responder would have made more of an effort to play in clubs.

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Based on declarer's extreme shape my first instinct was to go for the DA as well. There is a small chance partner has a void in clubs but there's a better chance that the DA will force declarer such that he can't run clubs easily.

 

ahydra

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2d is even sillier than 1d, but please continue to bid this way. It just reinforces my beliefs based on previous pists.

 

I can hardly believe I'm still optimistic enough to ask this, but do you have a reason for this claim? Perhaps one based on - y'know - reason rather than your traditional 'a reely reely good player I once played with told me this and he was awesome and better than anyone you've played with!!11!!'?

 

Advantages:

Good enough suit and distribution to not get Xed

Favourable vul

Takes lots of opps' bidding space

Good chance of LHO playing the contract, so it helps P with lead

P has passed, so no chance of preempting him

Weak enough that opps might have slam

 

Disadvantages:

Certain BBO forumers were taught by Obi-Wan Kenobi that they needed an extra D for the bid and find it morally abhorrent without one

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Based on declarer's extreme shape my first instinct was to go for the DA as well. There is a small chance partner has a void in clubs but there's a better chance that the DA will force declarer such that he can't run clubs easily.

 

ahydra

 

Maybe, but if P has two winners and declarer a (or two), a singleton would serve as well (and the forcing defence might not work if dummy shows up with something like xxx Axxxx Kx QTx)

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I don't know why, but when I posted my answer, for some reason I overlooked the club raise by dummy. I wouldn't lead a club expecting a void. I'd be surprised to find that the opps had a 10 card fit in clubs. However, I agree with the club lead, having reviewed the auction.

 

As I mentioned in my earlier post, I had difficulty seeing how the diamond A lead (which I chose anyway) could lead to 4 defensive tricks. A club lead points an easy way to 4 tricks if partner holds a stiff and an early trump trick, and of course an even easier path if he holds a void and either we get 2 diamonds, or he has another trick to go with 2 ruffs.

 

So at imps, I agree that the club lead is best. At mps, I am still a diamond leader, since the club rates to lose a tempo and seems to me more likely to cost us an important defensive trick than to set the contract.

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I can hardly believe I'm still optimistic enough to ask this, but do you have a reason for this claim? Perhaps one based on - y'know - reason rather than your traditional 'a reely reely good player I once played with told me this and he was awesome and better than anyone you've played with!!11!!'?

 

Advantages:

Good enough suit and distribution to not get Xed

Favourable vul

Takes lots of opps' bidding space

Good chance of LHO playing the contract, so it helps P with lead

P has passed, so no chance of preempting him

 

 

Disadvantages:

Certain BBO forumers were taught by Obi-Wan Kenobi that they needed an extra D for the bid and find it morally abhorrent without one

 

Good enough suit and distribution to not get Xed

Not if an opp has KTxx

 

Favourable vul

True

 

Takes lots of opps' bidding space

Not really

 

Good chance of LHO playing the contract, so it helps P with lead

Who says? If anything I would say you are likely to be on lead. lho's 2M is forcing for most people, and even if you play nfb lho may well only have the values for a nfb Only if lho Xs is rho a decent bet to play the contract unless it happens to be in Cs

 

P has passed, so no chance of preempting him (sic)

With a fit pd has no idea at what level to raise if you pre empt on this type of hand.

 

P has passed, so no chance of preempting him

Here you are playing with yourself. Your pd could still have a decent 10 count, 2 bullets in fact, and you have reasonable defence.

 

Certain BBO forumers were taught by Obi-Wan Kenobi that they needed an extra D for the bid and find it morally abhorrent without one

Maybe. Maybe some others play a sounder game than you too.

 

Look, I overcall on the 1 level possibly lighter than anyone who posts here regularly IF the overcall takes some space away. 1C 1S does and is extremely powerful. Look at the overcalls made by Duboin, Versace and Meckewell for example. I don't overcall on hands where I have little gain and the possibility of great pain.

 

However as I said before, do as you will. I hope that if I ever play against you anywhere you continue to do this. It is certainly clear from your posts that you are unwilling to take any advice and listen to others, and I am not the only one to say this.

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