Jinksy Posted October 23, 2014 Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 [hv=pc=n&w=shk8dat432cakjt64&e=skjthqt3dq95cq852&d=w&v=e&b=16&a=1c(Cs%2014%2B%20HCP%20or%20bal%2015%2Bhcp)2h2n4s4np5cppp]266|200[/hv] Three questions: 1) How do you play the D suit for one loser a priori?2) Does the bidding change your line?3) Do you agree with 2N by E, or is it too wet? (alternatives are pretty standard - X for TO and 3N) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted October 23, 2014 Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 If they lead a doubleton spade, I may not care. Spade to 10/Q/ruffA♣ and if all follow J♣ to QK♠/A/ruffsmall heart towards dummy, if N ducks my second heart goes away, if he flies the A and returns a heart, I win the K6♣ to 8, pitch 2 diamonds on major winners, run Q♦ and I don't care what happens to it, I'm only losing 1 at most 1) I think a priori you run the Q then run the 92) It looks like N has 6 hearts and S has 8 spades, so S has 8 spades and 2 hearts, obviously if he follows to 2 clubs you cash A♦3) 2N/3N both plausible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamford Posted October 23, 2014 Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 If they lead a doubleton spade, I may not care. Spade to 10/Q/ruffA♣ and if all follow J♣ to QK♠/A/ruffsmall heart towards dummy, if N ducks my second heart goes away, if he flies the A and returns a heart, I win the K6♣ to 8, pitch 2 diamonds on major winners, run Q♦ and I don't care what happens to it, I'm only losing 1 at most 1) I think a priori you run the Q then run the 92) It looks like N has 6 hearts and S has 8 spades, so S has 8 spades and 2 hearts, obviously if he follows to 2 clubs you cash A♦3) 2N/3N both plausibleIf they lead a trump then you do not have enough entries to establish and enjoy your major suit winners safely. And you may go down if North has Qx in spades. I think you play the eight of clubs on an initial trump lead, hoping to get back into your line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jinksy Posted October 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 6♣ to 8, pitch 2 diamonds on major winners, run Q♦ and I don't care what happens to it, I'm only losing 1 at most Why? It doesn't seem like you've achieved anything - you still have three diamonds to play and the ability to ruff the fourth, and you still lose if N has the K♦ and you misguess the J. 1) I think a priori you run the Q then run the 9 This works iff S has either honour, right? Small to the 9 then running the Q looks better to me - you win if N has both honours or neither or the J only or stiff K. 2) It looks like N has 6 hearts and S has 8 spades, so S has 8 spades and 2 hearts, obviously if he follows to 2 clubs you cash A♦ Y, makes sense. You still lose if S started with KJx, but that doesn't seem very likely now... 3) 2N/3N both plausible Which is plausibler? :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jinksy Posted October 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 If they lead a trump then you do not have enough entries to establish and enjoy your major suit winners safely. And you may go down if North has Qx in spades. I think you play the eight of clubs on an initial trump lead, hoping to get back into your line. He specified if they lead a ♠. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted October 23, 2014 Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 Why? It doesn't seem like you've achieved anything - you still have three diamonds to play and the ability to ruff the fourth, and you still lose if N has the K♦ and you misguess the J. Because N if he wins the K has to play another diamond resolving the position for you or giving you a ruff and discard. The end position is something like [hv=pc=n&s=s98hd87c&w=shdat4ct&n=shjdkj6c&e=shdq95c5]399|300[/hv] It doesn't matter where the diamond cards are, you're only ever losing one if you run the Q, there is no guess. And Lamford, yes I specified on a spade lead that looks like a doubleton, if N has Qx/Ax, he will have led the honour if he leads a spade so there is little risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgoetze Posted October 23, 2014 Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 Small to the 9 then running the Q looks better to me How is small to the 9, run Q better than small to the Q, run 9? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jinksy Posted October 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 Because N if he wins the K has to play another diamond resolving the position for you or giving you a ruff and discard. *head hit keyboard* Right... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jinksy Posted October 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 How is small to the 9, run Q better than small to the Q, run 9? I'm not sure it is. If I were confident what the best play was I wouldn't have asked :P I can't see anything to choose between them, though. Both seem to lose to split honours with N having at least a doubleton if the wrong honour is in the wrong place and work otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted October 23, 2014 Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 *head hit keyboard* Right... In fact small to the 10 may be better still, it has the same effect most of the time, but S is more likely to have stiff K than N is to have stiff J and that makes you the overtrick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnu Posted October 23, 2014 Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 1) How do you play the D suit for one loser a priori? After they lead a diamond, I play low from dummy, win as cheaply as possibly, draw trumps, and ruff a diamond if necessary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cthulhu D Posted October 24, 2014 Report Share Posted October 24, 2014 Suitplay suggests that the answer to 1 is small to the 9 unless they come up with the J (cover) or the King (duck) If you assume that N has 6 hearts and south has 7 spades, the best line doesn't change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted October 24, 2014 Report Share Posted October 24, 2014 Suitplay suggests that the answer to 1 is small to the 9 unless they come up with the J (cover) or the King (duck) If you assume that N has 6 hearts and south has 7 spades, the best line doesn't change. I'd assume S had 8 spades, N might well bid 5♠ with 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cthulhu D Posted October 26, 2014 Report Share Posted October 26, 2014 I'd assume S had 8 spades, N might well bid 5♠ with 3. If S has 8 spades and 6 Hearts suitplay wants to lead small from AT432. If South only has 7 spades, it wants to lead small from AT432, but leading the 5 and covering with the T is almost, but not quite, as good. As that comparison is interesting, let's call small from AT432 A and the 5 from QT5 as B A wins when the suit breaks Kxxx - J, Jxxx - K, xxx - KJ, xx - KJx, x- - KJxxx and V - KJxxx (in the sense that it goes off one less on the Hawaiian break). B wins against K - Jxxx, Jxx - Kxx, J - Kxxx. All other breaks are the same trick expectation. Here is the table of odds and trick expectation produced: http://i.imgur.com/weaRV3H.png With the vacant spaces set: http://i.imgur.com/OsAmaNi.png Side note, I wish I could be as good as suitplay when deciding the best line in a suit! edit: If you only have two entries to dummy, it wants to start with the 5 up to the 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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