ATB

[ArtK78]

[hv=pc=n&s=skt9874hdt73caj72&n=saqj62ht73d2ck953&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=3hp4hppp]266|200[/hv]

 

This is from the second final session of my District's NAOP. My partner and I stood fourth after the first final session, with the top 3 qualifying for the National finals in New Orleans next March. This hand is one of the reasons why we did not qualify.

 

So, which one of us should bid (both or neither are acceptable answers, even though "neither" is obviously wrong)?

 

If it matters to you, East is a client and West is a pro.

[PhantomSac]

Well north certainly cannot bid

[mikeh]

S and I don't think it close

 

He can't (imo) overcall, tho make that spade 8 the Q and it's an easy overcall.

 

N can't bid, imo, because S will usually have a far, far less satisfactory hand. West doesn't promise a lot of hearts...he could have simply a good hand without willingness to play 3N....Kxx x AKJxxx AQx.....4♥ is far superior to 3N imo, even with a client on play.

 

However, after 4♥ passed back to S, I think S has to take a chance.

[mcphee]

S needs to balance taking his lumps when he is wrong. Surprising how often it is right to bid 4S over 4H in these cases.

[whereagles]

I think S could have bid 4♠ over 4♥. Direct overcall seems frisky and selling out to 4♥ after opps fit is found seems tame.

[Fluffy]

Whoever is balancing should bid spades with both hands, perhaps not north after 4♥-p-p but I think I would.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=skt9874hdt73caj72&n=saqj62ht73d2ck953&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=3hp4hppp]266|200|

This is from the second final session of my District's NAOP. My partner and I stood fourth after the first final session, with the top 3 qualifying for the National finals in New Orleans next March. This hand is one of the reasons why we did not qualify.. So, which one of us should bid (both or neither are acceptable answers, even though "neither" is obviously wrong)?

If it matters to you, East is a client and West is a pro. [/hv]

IMO: N = 0%, S = 30%, EW = 70%.

[ArtK78]

IMO: N = 0%, S = 30%, EW = 70%.

The EW bidding was not remarkable. To give then the credit would be an error.

[ggwhiz]

The final pass by South, 100%

 

Gotta man up especially at mp's.

[gszes]

South has a tremendous positional advantage that north lacks.

S is pretty darn sure the opps have few heart losers and they also

know west does not have all the remaining stuff since all they did

was bid 4h. N has something over there. bidding 4s now gives us a

great chance not just because spades might make but because our

hand can also play in either minor and if 4s get x'd maybe it would

be a good time to xx (save the 4n runout for when you really gambled

on your spade length).

 

There is zero reason to xx here since you did not bi 3s your p cannot

expect the worlds fair in spades so if they do not try to (run or xx) you

should not (if the opps x 4s that is).

 

I have to lump all of my blame on south not backing in.

[MrAce]

I would bid 4♠ after 4♥ comes to me. But to be fair, it is not auto and pass is hell of an alternative. Maybe I see too many players who are raising the 3 level M preempts with a stiff honor or sometimes small singleton. After all this is still an 8 card fit for them. Some of them does it with spades, incase their opponents are believers of "4♥ by them is a transfer to 4 spades for us" Your pd maybe sitting there with 5 hearts and not enough spades if any. Perhaps this is why we should have entered the auction the previous round.

 

I don't know. All I know is Art should have given only the S hand and the auction, since N hand can not act in this auction anyway. This would get us unbiased replies imho.

[gnasher]

I agree that if South passed on the first round he should bid 4♠ after the raise to 4♥. Maybe that's an indication that he shouldn't pass on the first round?

[PhantomSac]

I agree that if South passed on the first round he should bid 4♠ after the raise to 4♥. Maybe that's an indication that he shouldn't pass on the first round?

 

+ 1 million but doubt we will convince anyone :P

[ArtK78]

I don't know. All I know is Art should have given only the S hand and the auction, since N hand can not act in this auction anyway. This would get us unbiased replies imho.

I would hope that you can give an unbiased answer even if you are looking at both hands. At the table, that is what you are presented with after the fact. Of course, my partner had already passed out 4♥ so I got his opinion (and his opinion was worth 25% of the matchpoints).

 

Quite frankly, I agree with you that the North hand cannot act in this auction. I held the North hand and did not bid over 4♥. But I considered it (in tempo).

[the_clown]

IMHO South has a (very close) 3♠ on the first round and a pretty easy (still not automatic) balance on the second.

[whereagles]

huh... I don't think 3♠ is close 1st round.. your playing strength is very limited and you have absolutely no clue as to what LHO holds. Agree that one should prefer to act soon, but this is too much.

 

2nd round is a whole new ball game. Now your hand is exactly what a delayed overcall is about: opps have a known fit and you have shape.

[johnu]

I would hope that you can give an unbiased answer even if you are looking at both hands.

 

LOL, the history of these forums is that almost everybody bids (and plays) double dummy when seeing more than their hand. A small percentage usually do a pretty good job of ignorning the UI, although you can't help but be biased by UI. The vast majority may think they are ignoring the UI, but fail most of the time.

[rhm]

huh... I don't think 3♠ is close 1st round.. your playing strength is very limited and you have absolutely no clue as to what LHO holds. Agree that one should prefer to act soon, but this is too much.

 

2nd round is a whole new ball game. Now your hand is exactly what a delayed overcall is about: opps have a known fit and you have shape.

Not sure whether this is really true.

Assume West would double 3♠ what will he do with such a hand if you pass?

In that case West will usually be strong enough to look for game, which will be 4♥ almost always. West might raise with a strong hand and a void.

So bidding 4♠ now instead of 3♠ on the previous round will only mean 200 or 300 extra points more for East West and that comparison assumes that 3♠ will not make.

 

I am a frequent balancer and I would bid 4♠ with the South hand but I much prefer 3♠.

That balancing is safer here is a mirage and shows muddled thinking.

The likelihood that East West have a heart fit does not come from West raise. It comes from looking at your void and East preempt.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[ggwhiz]

Not sure whether this is really true.

Assume West would double 3♠ what will he do with such a hand if you pass?

In that case West will usually be strong enough to look for game, which will be 4♥ almost always. West might raise with a strong hand and a void.

So bidding 4♠ now instead of 3♠ on the previous round will only mean 200 or 300 extra points more for East West and that comparison assumes that 3♠ will not make.

 

I am a frequent balancer and I would bid 4♠ with the South hand but I much prefer 3♠.

That balancing is safer here is a mirage and shows muddled thinking.

The likelihood that East West have a heart fit does not come from West raise. It comes from looking at your void and East preempt.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

I don't disagree entirely but in context, if I bid 3♠ directly my regular pard is going to smash them next and we won't like the result.

[Trinidad]

I don't disagree entirely but in context, if I bid 3♠ directly my regular pard is going to smash them next and we won't like the result.

Agree.

 

There is a big difference between bidding 3♠ in direct seat and balancing with 4♠.

 

Bidding 3♠ shows some values (admittedly, there is quite a bit of inflation, but still). Balancing with 4♠ shows a good ODR.

 

The problem with the actual South hand is that it is only just short on values for a 3♠ overcall, and it has only just enough ODR for the 4♠ balancing action. That makes pass and balance the correct action, but you will not find this hand as the prototype in any bridge book. There you will see a hand like:

♠QJT876542

♥7

♦5

♣43

 

Rik

[ArtK78]

Thank you all for a very interesting discussion.

 

Unfortuately, my partner did not balance with 4♠ on the South hand, resulting in a 25% score for -680. But the 4♠ balance might not be the end of the story on this hand. The full hand is as follows:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=skt9874hdt73caj72&w=s53hak4dak954cq84&n=saqj62ht73d2ck953&e=shqj98652dqj86ct6&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=3hp4hpp4s?]399|300[/hv]

 

As you can see, NS are cold for 12 tricks in spades if you play the opening 3♥ bidder for 10x of clubs. And EW are making 12 tricks in hearts on any lead but a club. The lead at our table was a spade.

 

It would be interesting to see how the bidding and play would have proceeded had my partner balanced with 4♠.

[whereagles]

1. Assume West would double 3♠. what will he do with such a hand if you pass? (...)

 

2. That balancing is safer here is a mirage and shows muddled thinking. The likelihood that East West have a heart fit does not come from West raise. It comes from looking at your void and East preempt.

 

1. For starters, he could pass 3♥. Good players do that on a misfit.

 

2. Obviously, if LHO has a singleton heart and is faking an honest raise to 4♥, I'll be down an extra -300. But to be honest it's been YEARS since someone tried that bluff on me. In a more normal scenario I'm pretty confident balancing here should be at least as safe as direct overcall, if not safer. Even considering the "in quick, out quick" principle.

[aguahombre]

1. For starters, he could pass 3♥. Good players do that on a misfit.

 

2. Obviously, if LHO has a singleton heart and is faking an honest raise to 4♥, I'll be down an extra -300. But to be honest it's been YEARS since someone tried that bluff on me. In a more normal scenario I'm pretty confident balancing here should be at least as safe as direct overcall, if not safer. Even considering the "in quick, out quick" principle.

Really? I vote for the obvious balance and not the direct 3S, here...as it seems you do as well. However, If LHO has a stiff or even void in hearts, there is nothing in my hand to make me believe it might have been a 4H bluff. And, a 4H raise with 3 tricks opposite a vul 3H opener..with no trump support...occurs much more often than you suggest.

 

Of Course, I will pay off, big time if LHO has that hand. But it aint a "bluff".

[mikeh]

 

 

I am a frequent balancer and I would bid 4♠ with the South hand but I much prefer 3♠.

That balancing is safer here is a mirage and shows muddled thinking.

The likelihood that East West have a heart fit does not come from West raise. It comes from looking at your void and East preempt.

 

Rainer Herrmann

This is muddled thinking...the last part.

 

When West raises he has either any of a very wide range of hands with hearts or he has a good hand, with or without hearts, and the shorter the hearts, the stronger the hand. So the fact that he raised increases the likelihood that he has hearts, simply because with hearts he will raise very often and without less often.

 

Arguing that the raise showed a heart fit is wrong. Arguing that it is irrelevant to our expectations that he has a heart fit is equally wrong. You know better.

[gnasher]

When RHO opens 3♥ we already know that 91% of the time they'll have a 9+ card fit, and 67% they'll have a 10+ card fit (assuming that RHO has a seven-card suit). How much do you want these figures to go up before it becomes safe for you to bid?