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The range of the opps NT is irrelevant here. If the opps bidding

shows 54 in the majors and invitational that leaves partner with

6hcp and distribution of xx(x) xxxx(x) with a max of 7 cards and as

few as 5 cards in the minors.

 

Lho will have xx(x) xx(x) and at least 7 cards up to 9 cards in the

minors with the strongest hand at the table. Bidding here may indeed

manage to strongly affect our MP score but I fear that the result

will be much closer to zero than we are currently slated letting the

opps play 2s.

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If the opps bidding shows 54 in the majors and invitational...

 

I suspect that responder is showing 54 majors and they're playing Garbage Stayman myself - though could have up to about 9 or even 10 hcp given the weak NT context. Never the less, as Paul says, this is not a fit auction and partner might/could have done something especially with xx in spades.

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Fit or no fit auction, at MPs I'm bidding 2N if that 2 is weak. There's a good chance we'll find a 4-4 fit for somewhere between 7-9 tricks, and if we do no guarantee they'll be able to X us. I expect 2 to make, so anything better than 3mX - 2 is profit.

 

If it was some kind of invitey hand, I'll pass with the rest.

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Can't we effectively balance by doubling 2D instead?

South is still unlimited at that point, so I wouldn't dare.

 

Plus, our diamonds are nothing to write home about, we could still belong in clubs.

 

All in all I pass, even though I know I very rarely make miracles in defending.

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At pairs the issue becomes, do we have a plus offensively in a minor? Is minus 1 at the 2 level doubled (possibly) better than the possible 110 playing 2S? I can't see the gain from bidding, my hand is reasonable for defense and on a good day we may beat 2S. Plus the bidding is going to begin at other tables with a minor suit opening and a Spade response after our pass. The contract is likely to be 2S across the room, seems the time to back your leads and defense to me, pass 100%.
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I defer to stronger players, but on one last remark: at MPs (esp against club opps), the crapness of my holding is a large part of the reason why I want to bid. It means even on a 5-2 fit, they're might well be making all 5 s and their contract. At least in club play, where most opps won't double a part score unless they really mean it, that means I might still come out ahead if I go two down.

 

(ETA) Ok, one more last argument - one defender has strength in our eventualy trump suit, it's likely to be opener rather than the hand with 9 cards in the majors. Since his P's shown 0 points on this auction, that's going to make a penalty X difficult for him to find.

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Ron: that is true, but...

 

...I think there's a good chance opps have a spade fit (I'm assuming 2 shows 5). If that is true, I'm booked for a bad score. So might as well try for something. Besides, why can't RHO have the spade ace? Or pard Qx, for that matter.

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Sorry Nuno, but this 2NT is bad. Look at your spade holding and sterile shape.

 

Yup, same Nuno did not balance with a 6430 hand and 7 hcp, short in their suit, in another recent balancing topic but now balances with 4432 because this has 4 extra hcps. But to be fair, on this one he is non vulnerable on the other vulnerable and his decision was close imo.

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Come on, there's more to the hands than the hcps and you know it.

 

I agree with you, so why are you balancing on this hand with horrible shape? Your partner is known to have 4-5 hearts and 2-3 spades. They may or may not have a fit and we will often not have a fit. It's not like we have a shapely monster we are 3244. We also have excellent defensive values and pretty bad offensive values. On top of that even with a 4-4 fit we are pretty likely to get a 4-1 break

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It's interesting, but if the last bid had been 2H rather than 2S, I think balancing would be close to automatic, so is it truly horrific to balance here? I wouldn't, but that isn't the same as thinking it isn't that close.
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I agree with you, so why are you balancing on this hand with horrible shape? Your partner is known to have 4-5 hearts and 2-3 spades. They may or may not have a fit and we will often not have a fit. It's not like we have a shapely monster we are 3244. We also have excellent defensive values and pretty bad offensive values. On top of that even with a 4-4 fit we are pretty likely to get a 4-1 break

 

Because my instinct tells me opps are going to make this. Maybe holding them to 8 tricks will be a good MP score, but my experience is it's won't. Agree I can easily be wrong in practice, but I won't fight my instincts and so, at these colours, think I'll give it one last try to keep destiny in my own hands.

 

Final note: obviously, wouldn't even dream to do if 2 only guarantees 4 cards. Nor vulnerable. At teams the profit for grabs is probably also too small for the risk.

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