Jinksy Posted October 5, 2014 Report Share Posted October 5, 2014 [hv=pc=n&s=sjt54hjt872dq94c4&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=1np3nppp]133|200[/hv] IMPs. Your lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyB Posted October 5, 2014 Report Share Posted October 5, 2014 HJ seems obvious. I could imagine Bird-Anthias preferring a spade if your pips were roughly equal in both suits, but as it is, a heart is much less likely to cost a trick in the suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eagles123 Posted October 5, 2014 Report Share Posted October 5, 2014 sry but i think anyone that gets this right is psychic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jinksy Posted October 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2014 Maybe, but I've not seen a sim done on this type of hand, so I can believe it would favour the lead it actually needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanoff Posted October 5, 2014 Report Share Posted October 5, 2014 Find partners suit with ♦3 ? No, ok then ♥J. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted October 5, 2014 Report Share Posted October 5, 2014 hmmm.. heart seems to edge out spades. Couple scenarios where it wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted October 5, 2014 Report Share Posted October 5, 2014 Rather crude, but I defined RHO as 15-17 bal, including any 5332, and LHO as 10-15 with no 4 card major. Sure, dummy could have a 4 card major, but let's see. Selection of 10000 qualifying hands out of 443120 deals: Lead, %Set, expected no. of tricks: JH= 9.10%, 2.508H= 8.23%, 2.412H= 8.20%, 2.41JS= 7.28%, 2.465S= 6.91%, 2.414C= 4.80%, 2.294D= 4.73%, 2.179D= 4.62%, 2.14QD= 3.78%, 2.02 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siegmund Posted October 6, 2014 Report Share Posted October 6, 2014 You want a sim, OK, here's a sim. 1000 deals, opener 15-17 balanced or semibalanced, responder 9-13 no 4CM unless 4333. (Yes, this leaves in a few 3163s etc that would have done something else.) With or without a sim, any non-jack lead here is one part psychic and two parts psychotic. It is not remotely close, whichever measure you use to decide what lead is best: Card , #deals on which par is still possible after that lead, #deals on which 3NT can be set after that lead, #tricks lost vs. best lead, IMPs lost vs. best lead: ♠J: 670 150 -516 -1566♠4: 637 138 -581 -1728♥J: 714 182 -449 -1224♥8: 633 164 -562 -1499♥2: 630 164 -568 -1504♦Q: 406 76 -1053 -2660♦9: 463 91 -927 -2428♦4: 489 95 -887 -2352 ♣4: 551 110 -702 -2087 With 1000 replications, margin of error (95% confidence interval) is about ±30 on the first column, ±20 on the second, ±50 on the third, ±100 on the fourth. More than enough to resolve the H > S > C > D pattern. Edit: I see 1eyedjack got a head start on me. I am also happy to see we are reporting the same qualitative results despite small differences in our constraints and in what we chose to count.I report more frequent sets, of course, since my responder was 9-13 rather than 10-15. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jinksy Posted October 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2014 Thanks both. Right you are, Eagles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted October 7, 2014 Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 Thanks both. Right you are, Eagles. What is he right about? To be psychic in order to get this right? 20 people voted for ♥ J and in the sim heart J came out on top. Or more likely I did not understand what you meant or which eagles you referred to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyB Posted October 7, 2014 Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 What is he right about? To be psychic in order to get this right? 20 people voted for ♥ J and in the sim heart J came out on top. Or more likely I did not understand what you meant or which eagles you referred to. Eagles123 obviously knows the whole hand. I'm guessing a diamond was required Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jinksy Posted October 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 ^ This. P had AKJxx of ♦s, declarer had 9 (or maybe 10) top tricks on any other lead. The reason I thought the sim might conceivably favour a D is in the chapter on leading from very weak hands, the theme seems to be 'lead from a shorter major, the worse your hand is'. If you don't have a short major, that becomes hard advice to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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