microcap Posted February 24, 2005 Report Share Posted February 24, 2005 [hv=d=n&v=n&n=sxhjxxxxdxckj10xxx&s=skhak10xxdaq10xxxcx]133|200|Scoring: BAM[/hv] Ok you are in 6 hearts after opps bid to 5 spades, but get a lucky trump lead to the Q♥ and Ace. Are the odds better to cash the A♦ and try to ruff out the king, or cross to the J♥ and take the simple finesse? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted February 24, 2005 Report Share Posted February 24, 2005 Finesse has more chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted February 24, 2005 Report Share Posted February 24, 2005 well the problem is entries. If you play ace of diamonds, diamond ruff, heart to hand, diamond ruff with jack your only way back to your hand is a trump which means you will be left with 2 black suit losers. So your only hope to make is Kxx of diamonds onside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoeless Posted February 27, 2005 Report Share Posted February 27, 2005 Don't quote me on this because I am a terrible statician - but i believe the odds of the KJ tight in one hand (which is what you need for this to work) is less than 10%. (My reckoning 4%) Otherwise as Jason points out you dont have the entries or the number of ruffs in dummy to do what you need to do. Think a finesse is still close to 50% unless they changed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GijsH Posted March 4, 2005 Report Share Posted March 4, 2005 I don't think it is that simple as previous posters indicate :-).Considering 2 entries back to hand: 1.The ruffing way works against any 3-3 diamond distribution, while the finesse fails 50% of the 3-3 distr. (K with W)2.With 4-2 split, the ruffing wins when W has Kx, but finesse is better when W has xx.3.With 5-1 split, ruffing is better when W has bare K, or E has sin J. Finesse is never better than ruffing with this split. The odds of 1. are higher than 2. , so ruffing wins by a small margin, I estimate about 56% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted March 4, 2005 Report Share Posted March 4, 2005 Since this is BAM it might matter that you are two down if the finese fails. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame Posted March 4, 2005 Report Share Posted March 4, 2005 Finesse has more chance. im pretty sure you are wrong.but since you dont have enough entries for the ruff, the diamond finnese is best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotShot Posted March 4, 2005 Report Share Posted March 4, 2005 Play A♦ and than small for a ruff. After you return to you hand with trump.Then play the Q for a ruffing finesse, and drop ♠ if the queen in not covered with the king. This should work, if anyone holds K or Kx, and if LHO hold Kxxx.If the J drops you can repeat the ruffing finesse with the 10. This should be better than the simple finesse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame Posted March 4, 2005 Report Share Posted March 4, 2005 Play A♦ and than small for a ruff. After you return to you hand with trump.Then play the Q for a ruffing finesse, and drop ♠ if the queen in not covered with the king. This should work, if anyone holds K or Kx, and if LHO hold Kxxx.If the J drops you can repeat the ruffing finesse with the 10. This should be better than the simple finesse. I dont think your line makes LHO has Kxxx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame Posted March 4, 2005 Report Share Posted March 4, 2005 So your only hope to make is Kxx of diamonds onside. IF im not mistaken the finnese will work for Kxxx onside as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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