Shugart23 Posted September 23, 2014 Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 Case 1 : Partner bids 1H, RHO bids 1NT and it passes out. Case 2 : Partner bids 1H, RHO bids 1NT, LHO bids 3NT, all Pass you hold xx in Spades, A32 in Hearts , xxxx,xxxx in the Minors. What do you lead in Case 1 and what do you lead in Case 2 ? I think maybe in Case 1 you lead a low heart but in Case 2 you might lead a low Spade ? Opinions ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted September 23, 2014 Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 ♥ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shugart23 Posted September 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 against the 3NT contract, the heart lead might be giving the 9th trick to Opponents more times than not might be the counter argument and you might be better off sitting on top of his stopper. Your partner has points and will get in for a Heart lead to your ace.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted September 23, 2014 Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 Bird/Anthias have a couple of similar hands. Shd be possible to get some analysis from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted September 23, 2014 Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 ♥Was this an emphatic simple answer, or did it have another significance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordontd Posted September 23, 2014 Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 Was this an emphatic simple answer, or did it have another significance?Perhaps Phil & Lurpoa are one and the same. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted September 23, 2014 Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 Perhaps Phil & Lurpoa are one and the same.I always wondered about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted September 23, 2014 Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 ♥ LurpoKing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted September 24, 2014 Report Share Posted September 24, 2014 ♥ LurpoKing! High praise indeed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted September 24, 2014 Report Share Posted September 24, 2014 Jury's out on how much trust to place in this frankly new product, but I ran a sim through Lead Captain Sample size 10000 RHO defined as 15-18 HCP, balanced with H GuardLHO defined as 0-8 HCP with no 6+ card suitP defined as 11-18 HCP, 5-7 Hearts, no other 5 card suit. V 3NT Lead ......... % set .............expected tricks H3 ............. 60.81 ...........5.09HA .............. 59.55 ..........4.98D6 .............. 50.15 ..........4.82C6 ...............49.96 ..........4.82S3 ...............47.75 ...........4.81 V 1NT (new set of 10000) Lead ......... % set .............expected tricks H3 ............. 24.51 ...........5.09S3 ............. 20.06 ...........4.78HA .............. 19.90 ..........4.97C6 .............. 18.43 ..........4.78D6 ...............18.41 ..........4.79 Perhaps marginally interesting that the Spade 3 leaps up the rankings v 1N contrasted with 3N, but probably the only inference that you can draw is that there is very little difference between 2nd and 5th preference, and with a sample size of 10000 maybe some swapping of rankings is to be expected. [EDIT - just realised that the input criteria for LHO is wrong v 3NT. Have to go to work now, will try to adjust in a few hours when I get back] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted September 24, 2014 Report Share Posted September 24, 2014 Close numbers fall within statistical margins, so S3/HA vs 3NT can probably be deemed "equal leads". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted September 24, 2014 Report Share Posted September 24, 2014 Close numbers fall within statistical margins, so S3/HA vs 3NT can probably be deemed "equal leads". As I say in the Edit, the 3NT stats are completely bogus. Watch this space for update. May get it done lunchtime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted September 24, 2014 Report Share Posted September 24, 2014 As I say in the Edit, the 3NT stats are completely bogus. Watch this space for update. May get it done lunchtime. How do you define heart guard? ♥Qxx is perfectly normal, for instance, and they may misguess with QTx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted September 24, 2014 Report Share Posted September 24, 2014 As I say in the Edit, the 3NT stats are completely bogus. Watch this space for update. May get it done lunchtime. I was speaking in general. I once calculated the deviation for 5000 hands. If I recall correctly it was like ~1% chance of beating, meaning differences of ~1% essentially mean equivalent leads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted September 24, 2014 Report Share Posted September 24, 2014 I defined "a heart guard" as at least 1 of top 3 honours. A bit crude, but then it is all a bit crude. I have re-run the 3NT sim twice by defining LHO as 9 -15 HCP, any shape except (1) denying a 5th Spade (would presumably enquire after Spade fit) and (2) denying a 4th Spade (likewise, but less certain). V 3NT, LHO denying 5th Spade Lead ......... % set .............expected tricks H3 ............. 37.79 ...........4.16 HA .............. 36.35 ..........4.11S3 .............. 27.67 ..........4.00 C6 ...............26.08 ..........3.88 D6 ...............25.82 ...........3.87 V 3NT, LHO denying 4th Spade Lead ......... % set .............expected tricks H3 ............. 36.42 ...........4.05 HA .............. 36.17 ..........4.07S3 .............. 28.57 ..........4.00 C6 ...............22.03 ..........3.71 D6 ...............21.89 ...........3.71 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave_beer Posted September 24, 2014 Report Share Posted September 24, 2014 (1) Why didn't I bid 2♥ over 1NT?(2) ♥2. I think it is more important to lead ♥2 against 3NT since opponents may have fewer than 25 or 26 HCP and being trying to run long suit in which case we have to take our tricks before they take theirs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted September 25, 2014 Report Share Posted September 25, 2014 I think it is more important to lead ♥2 against 3NT since opponents may have fewer than 25 or 26 HCP and being trying to run long suit in which case we have to take our tricks before they take theirs. That can be a 2-edged strategy: They have 8 running tricks with their long suit, the 9th being the H:K that you kindly lead up to at trick 1. If they are short on points then equally partner is more likely to have a side suit entry to lead H through declarer and another to get in to run them. Then again, maybe not :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marcindz Posted September 25, 2014 Report Share Posted September 25, 2014 I thought that 2♥ is a nobrainer for a second. Then I realised, that 1NT is AFTER 1♥ opening. That means, that my partner opening was rather distribution-wise. Depends if Max or Imp. On Max always heart lead. On Imp and 1NT, could risk spade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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