Play Poll

[sfi]

What are you hoping to achieve with a non-diamond lead? Two cashing side tricks? That seems a faint hope at best given the bidding, so you have two aims in finding a lead from a hand that doesn't have a standout alternative:

 

- don't give up the setting trick

- set up a trick for your side

 

There is some inference that RHO might have both heart and club cards to go along with diamond weakness, so a diamond lead through whatever honours are in dummy looks like your best shot to achieve both these aims. A diamond looks enough like the normal lead that if LHO played a spot card in hearts or clubs instead I would wonder why.

 

If you think that lead directing doubles don't have a significant cost against good opposition, you're not paying close enough attention. They will often show declarer the right line of play, they will talk them out of bidding non-making slams, and they give both opponents a chance to exchange information about the suit you have just told them is dangerous. These negatives are very expensive and you need a high percentage of hands where they would have bid and made slam without the right lead to make up for them.

[rmnka447]

The only thing you know for sure about the hand is that East had 3 trnmps to the Q and West had 1.

 

In order to make the hand you have find a place to pitch the ♦ loser before East gets in with the ♠ Q to cash a ♦.

 

The only 2 choices are the ♣ and ♥ suits.

 

In the ♣ suit, you can find a pitch if ♣ breaks 3-3 or the ♣ J drops doubleton. But the doubleton J has to be in the West hand because East can ruff in on the 3rd round of ♣s and score the ♦ loser before you can pitch. This comes out to about a 44% chance without any other information.

 

But the trump distribution has also affected the hand. West has 12 vacant places and East has 10. That means the odds are 6 out of 11 or about 54% in favor of finding any particular card with West.

 

I think the best you can do is to cash the ♣ AK and see what happens. If the ♣ J drops from West's hand, then you have to decide if it is really doubleton. If it doesn't show, you're down to playing for a 3-3 ♣ split (36%) vs. taking the ♥ finesse (54%).

 

What's most difficult against good opposition is that they are capable of making plays in tempo to mislead you or give as little as information as possible. So some table feel comes into play if the J drops.

[awm]

There have been a bunch of requests for the full hand. I don't think it's particularly enlightening; in fact no line works after the lead and the spade misguess. Here it is though:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=skjt962ha7d42cakt&w=s8h84dqt8753cj763&n=sa74hkj95da6cq542&e=sq53hqt632dkj9c98]399|300[/hv]

[benlessard]

I know I would auto X 4D here (im pretty convinced its losing bridge not to X) but anyone lead a 8H instead of a D here ?

[MrAce]

;-)

[benlessard]

lol..

 

Timo want me to put the lead or the lead directing X as a problem ?

[MrAce]

lol..

 

Timo want me to put the lead or the lead directing X as a problem ?

 

No, I was just amused by another strong word (auto double). Obviously you are very opinionated about the subject. I think I already answered your question, but if you want to do it then go for it. Imo there will be people to dbl and there will be others who won't, as there will be people lead ♥ and some others ♦.

 

I would not mind if you were my pd and doubled 4♦. However, I just don't see it as "auto", not even remotely with KJx. Imho the way you like to stamp the bids that goes in front of you, once in a while you will be appreciated by pd, most of the other times, however, appreciation will come from opponents for the reasons I already wrote up there somewhere in this thread. http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif

[helene_t]

I recall a tip from Martens: W made an aggresive lead so he must have had a reasonable hope of finding values with his partner, this suggests that he doesn't have ♥Q. So I try to ruff it out.

[cherdano]

but anyone lead a 8H instead of a D here ?

It's automatic to make an aggressive lead on this auction. But if you won't believe PhilKing, I am sure you won't believe anyone else either.

[the hog]

I know I would auto X 4D here (im pretty convinced its losing bridge not to X) but anyone lead a 8H instead of a D here ?

 

I think an "auto x" is the height of absurdity. Sth IF he held AQ would know the finesse worked and be even happier to bid a slam. I also think a D lead is marked on the W hand on this holding. A S lead is very poor, a h lead is out for me and a C lead is poor.

Fwiw I would have gone down. AK of S, 3 rounds of H and then play on Cs.

[gnasher]

I think it's obvious to double 4♦ with the East hand. The best chance of defeating slam is to get a diamond lead (which is known to be through the ace) and then make a trump trick.

 

With the auction as it went, I'd lead a diamond anyway, but only because partner didn't double 5♥. It sounds as though declarer has a heart control, so a heart lead needs partner to have at least KJ. He is likely to have four or five of the suit. With that holding and no ♦K he'd have an easy double of 5♥.

 

If you gave me some other auction where I was on lead with the West hand and partner hadn't had a chance to double hearts, I'd lead a heart. That's partly because of the failure to double 4♦, and partner because my diamond length makes it less likely that we can cash a trick there.

 

I don't agree with the implication that a heart lead is passive (if that's what people were suggesting). When the opponents have a lot of high cards, leading from xx through length and into a short honour is far more aggressive than leading from Q10xxxx. Look how close the heart lead comes to letting through 6♠ on this hand.

[MrAce]

I think it's obvious to double 4♦ with the East hand. The best chance of defeating slam is to get a diamond lead (which is known to be through the ace) and then make a trump trick.

 

With the auction as it went, I'd lead a diamond anyway, but only because partner didn't double 5♥. It sounds as though declarer has a heart control, so a heart lead needs partner to have at least KJ. He is likely to have four or five of the suit. With that holding and no ♦K he'd have an easy double of 5♥.

 

If you gave me some other auction where I was on lead with the West hand and partner hadn't had a chance to double hearts, I'd lead a heart. That's partly because of the failure to double 4♦, and partner because my diamond length makes it less likely that we can cash a trick there.

 

I don't agree with the implication that a heart lead is passive (if that's what people were suggesting). When the opponents have a lot of high cards, leading from xx through length and into a short honour is far more aggressive than leading from Q10xxxx. Look how close the heart lead comes to letting through 6♠ on this hand.

 

 

Even thinking about ♥ lead from xx when pd seems to have length in this suit and did not overcall, seems wrong to me. But my leads sucks anyway and I maybe wrong. And if pd does not have length in ♥ suit, where is the ♥ loser going anyway, if there is any?

 

Otoh, I still believe doubling 4♦ is not even remotely auto or obvious for everyone. I believe it helps opps more in the long run. God forbid if S held the ♦ Q, this dbl would probably lead to defending 6 NT. Or on this hand perhaps this would stop NS from bidding the slam, or maybe not. It definitely gives extra space to opps. The benefits of it seems much less than the damages it can cause in the long run imo. There is only one thing obvious about this DBL to me, and that is whatever info it provides to pd, is also provided to opponents. There is nothing obvious about telling opponents "Hey, you guys are getting too excited but you may have a problem on this suit, here is your extra space to reconsider, since now you learnt what we will lead and if it is not a problem then use it as a little info about my hand, incase you may need it during the play"

 

Fwiw, If I doubled 4♦, this would be to prevent a spade lead rather than anything else. People lead trump way too often imo. ♥ lead being passive or not depends on how one defines the passive leads vs slams I guess.

[whereagles]

I wouldn't expect pard to dbl 4♦ every time he has ♦Kxx, but I know of good players who do it. I also know good players who don't, so there.

[MrAce]

lol..

 

Timo want me to put the lead or the lead directing X as a problem ?

 

I think you did it anyway in BW, http://bridgewinners...g-problem-5775/

 

So far 24 passers vs 8 doublers. 1/3 Ratio is far from being "auto" or "obvious" as I claimed without even seeing the poll long time ago.

No need to mention all the top players among voters chose to pass. http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/wink.gif

 

Ben, I have no problem with individuals who has strong opinions about this double. As I said "auto" and "obvious" are overstatements. I can even live with those statements. After all, I believe you and Andy are genuinely telling the truth that DBL is "auto" or "obvious" for yourselves.

 

However, in a play topic, if you are assuming that majority of people are thinking like you, thus they will lead (or double) just like you, which leads you to make the declarer play accordingly, in a way that overrides the odds, shows in this topic by BBF members and in the poll of BW that you are way off A- with your assumptions about majority of people. B-with your assumptions about decent players..... Sorry m8.http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/ph34r.gif

[benlessard]

Unfortunatly few of the big gun choose to vote yet.

 

The comments are weird IMO, like the D finesse thing (by one of my partner btw :ph34r:) you have the Jd in your hand so if declarer got the Qd hes happy the KD is in RHO so Xing will encourage him not stop him (howewer if north got the AQd they might play in 6Nt).

 

Also few commented on the IRL aspect of the problem, you have a lot of pts, they make a slam try, if they bid slam partner partner is likely to be broke so X will be at least very tempting so even if you think passing is best will you be able to pass 4D in tempo ? IRL ive seen many BIT pass that barred the leader and still help declarer anyway.

 

Another way to see it is you got a near overcall and opps are bidding slam, its unlikely (and lucky for the non doubler) that partner got a club card & D cards; if he hold only one of these cards are you sure you don't want to double 4D ?? Note there is vienna squeeze if declarer got the Dq and you dont get a D lead.

 

As for the lead IDK, partner wasnt able to X 4D or 5H so I think ill lead D but im not 100% convinced about it, but like Gnasher if partner doenst have the chance to X 5H ill lead H before leading D.

[MrAce]

http://bridgewinners...ad-problem-480/

 

Here is the BW poll for the lead.

 

So far, 23 diamond lead, 10 club lead, 2 led hearts

[benlessard]

Thanks for putting it, I didnt want to put it on my account too early since Ive got some clever friends who spot those things. Im somewhat surprised at all the clubs leads under the jack.

 

One annoyance ive got with the full hand is its possible to bid 6NT instead of 6S with with no positionnal values and no shortness in both red suit, if the S dont run I need partner with AKQ in D or KQ of H for 6S being better than 6Nt (wich mean that hes not going to have the Q of clubs) the best chance is that the guy with 3 trumps got 3/4 clubs. I think I see more construction where partner got AQ/KJ in the reds this is mostly true because of the no doubles East is more likely to be in the blind for lead. If the spades run 6S will be better than 6NT when clubs break 4-1 but again there is cases where 6NT is better. However those minus -300 or -400 might tilt the imps calculations to 6S.