Play Poll

[awm]

[hv=pc=n&s=skjt962ha7d42cakt&n=sa74hkj95da6cq542&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1cp1sp1np3s(forcing)p4dp4np5h(2KC%20no%20Q)p6sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

IMPs, strong team game. ♦8 is lead to dummy's ace and East's nine. Ace and king of trumps, West playing the ♠8 and then discarding the ♦5. What now?

[Finch]

Well, as a very simple estimate, ruffing the heart queen down in 3 is approx 1/3

Clubs 3-3 is approx 1/3

Neither of those coming in is 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9, so that combined line is about 5/9.

I don't think that hearts are 1-6 because LHO is more likely to have led a singleton.

 

The heart finesse is a little over 50% (West has the short spades). So these two lines are very close.

However, my 1/3 estimate is low compared to the actual odds, so I go with the two-pronged approach.

[kenrexford]

Another option is to try Ace King in club. If West drops the Jack and is not playing really deep, you can cash the 10 and then cross to Dummy to pitch the diamond. If the Jack doesn't drop, you can then hook. The odds of the Jack dropping doubleton West is probably higher than stiff or void East, and probably by more than West dropping Jack from fourth.

[awm]

Another option is to try Ace King in club. If West drops the Jack and is not playing really deep, you can cash the 10 and then cross to Dummy to pitch the diamond. If the Jack doesn't drop, you can then hook. The odds of the Jack dropping doubleton West is probably higher than stiff or void East, and probably by more than West dropping Jack from fourth.

 

Not by my calculations. Given spades 1-3, there are 12 and 10 empty spaces in the two hands. The odds of a particular 5-1 club break would be:

 

12 * 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 10 / 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17

 

The odds of a particular 2-4 club break would be:

 

12 * 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 / 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17

 

So the ratio of a particular 5-1 break to a particular 2-4 break is 10:7. We are interested in specifically 5-1 breaks where the jack is not singleton (of which there are five), and in 2-4 where the jack is doubleton (of which there are also five).

 

Thus it seems you are more likely to go down by cashing ♣AK and getting ruffed, than you are to find Jx onside and make. Of course most of the time neither of these events happen and you are reduced to the heart finesse (which is actually better than 50% odds given the spade break).

[benlessard]

There is a red flag in the bidding for me here, the D lead despite north bypass of a club control and east failure to X 4D. IMO it strongly suggest that west has the J of clubs and the hes likely to have the QH too.

[MrAce]

There is a red flag in the bidding for me here, the D lead despite north bypass of a club control and east failure to X 4D. IMO it strongly suggest that west has the J of clubs and the hes likely to have the QH too.

 

I am % 100 confident that what you saw as a "red flag" and what it "strongly suggests" is nothing more than your own shadow. Especially the analyse of non club lead and whereabouts of club J is really funny.

[buha]

Well, as a very simple estimate, ruffing the heart queen down in 3 is approx 1/3

Clubs 3-3 is approx 1/3

Neither of those coming in is 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9, so that combined line is about 5/9.

I don't think that hearts are 1-6 because LHO is more likely to have led a singleton.

 

The heart finesse is a little over 50% (West has the short spades). So these two lines are very close.

However, my 1/3 estimate is low compared to the actual odds, so I go with the two-pronged approach.

Plus the squeeze

[buha]

Well, as a very simple estimate, ruffing the heart queen down in 3 is approx 1/3

Clubs 3-3 is approx 1/3

Neither of those coming in is 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9, so that combined line is about 5/9.

I don't think that hearts are 1-6 because LHO is more likely to have led a singleton.

 

The heart finesse is a little over 50% (West has the short spades). So these two lines are very close.

However, my 1/3 estimate is low compared to the actual odds, so I go with the two-pronged approach.

Plus the squeeze

[manudude03]

Plus the squeeze

 

Welcome to the forums. Unfortunately on this hand, the squeeze could never work as you can't cash enough winners for a squeeze without the count (you would have to give up a trump before you can run them, and as soon as you do, they win and cash a diamond).

 

Well, ok, there is a very remote squeeze, but it would require diamonds to break 8-1 with West leading the 8 from KQJT8753, not likely, but if it did happen, the squeeze would have to be in diamonds, and clubs or hearts (West can't have both rounded suits or there would be too many cards, and if East had them, dummy would be squeezed first).

 

That's enough squeeze madness for me tonight :)

[msjennifer]

To me it appears,West has 5 diamonds and one spade.His heart and club holdings are unknown.If he has Qxx in hearts then it will come down when the third round is ruffed ,a fact which will occur if he holds xxxx in hearts as it will then come down from East.If nothing happens then it is very likely that clubs will be 3-3 and you can overtake the club ten and take the discard on the thirteenth club.

[whereagles]

I would try the heart ruff line. That has plans (b) [2-2 trumps] and (c.) [3-3- clubs] in reserve.

[gordontd]

I would try the heart ruff line. That has plans (b) [2-2 trumps] and (c.) [3-3- clubs] in reserve.

Plan B has already failed.

[awm]

Well, as a very simple estimate, ruffing the heart queen down in 3 is approx 1/3

Clubs 3-3 is approx 1/3

Neither of those coming in is 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9, so that combined line is about 5/9.

I don't think that hearts are 1-6 because LHO is more likely to have led a singleton.

 

The heart finesse is a little over 50% (West has the short spades). So these two lines are very close.

However, my 1/3 estimate is low compared to the actual odds, so I go with the two-pronged approach.

 

One slight issue -- if east has 2 hearts lacking the queen, he can pitch a club from three on the third heart. This seems to lower the odds a bit, possibly enough that a finesse overtakes the line.

[wynsten]

Another option is to try Ace King in club. If West drops the Jack and is not playing really deep, you can cash the 10 and then cross to Dummy to pitch the diamond. If the Jack doesn't drop, you can then hook. The odds of the Jack dropping doubleton West is probably higher than stiff or void East, and probably by more than West dropping Jack from fourth.

Seems best to me - but what about the interesting case - Jack drops in two rounds from the EAST hand? Could he be falsecarding from three clubs while holding the Queen of hearts? Personally I'd believe the Jack, and take the heart finesse, and congratulate him on a fine play if he tricked me. Kind of a restricted choice philosophy - did he have to play the Jack, or was it a choice?

[benlessard]

Im surprised nobody take the lead into account. Why would west make an agressive lead under a D honnor here ? North didnt show a control in clubs and didnt a show a real suit.

 

Im more agressive than passive when it come to leads but here i wouldnt lead under Hxxxx, Hxxx if I have a safe alternative. In fact when I get low spot lead like this vs top notch players I tend to finesse in S one way or another (but not here obv). The 52-48% odds no longer applies when you get a non-S lead.

[whereagles]

Plan B has already failed.

 

I replied to the poll before reading the rest.. lol.

[whereagles]

Im surprised nobody take the lead into account. Why would west make an agressive lead under a D honnor here ?

 

Black suit lead is in principle out of the picture. Between a diamond and a heart, I would say (on restricted choice grounds) that leading one would imply an unattractive holding in the other.

 

So if LHO likes aggressive leads, odds are he hasn't got the heart queen. If he likes passive leads, he probably has honors in both reds.

[benlessard]

Why club is out ? with 98x 987x etc 876 clubs look safer than D for me. Note partner didnt X 4D too. With Qxx of S he might X agressively to get the D lead.

[PhilKing]

There is nothing "safe" about making a passive club lead on this auction.

[MrAce]

Why club is out ? with 98x 987x etc 876 clubs look safer than D for me. Note partner didnt X 4D too. With Qxx of S he might X agressively to get the D lead.

 

LOL ...Club is the last suit you want to lead. In fact I would think that it would not even occur to to anyone, and this is why it did not occur to anyone who replied, to have a strong clue, or any clue for that matter, from the non-club lead.

 

The conclusion you came to about the club suit and/or failure to lead is way off. What does it tell you, when one of them denies a control in one suit and the other one still keeps on cueing and eventually lands on slam? Besides the fact that some people do not even cue w/o first control. Also besides the fact that N opened 1♣ and we know he has 3-4-5 clubs. The conclusion regarding the whereabouts of ♥Q, due to the lead, is not better than saying "play W for Q on cloudy days" Failure to dbl an artificial bid does not really mean much. People do not dbl with suits like Qxxx QJxx. In fact most avoid to dbl even with much better suits due to the fact that it gives extra space to opponents and/or it helps opps reevaluate in bidding and play better during declaring more than it helps pd. But if you are going to give too much credit to the failure of doubles, keep in mind that E also failed to dbl 5♥.

Do you think Adam or Frances would not take it into account, had there been such a "red flag" as you claimed and that it "strongly suggests" something other than probably nothing?

 

There is nothing "safe" about making a passive club lead on this auction.

[benlessard]

Never said it was safe ive said SAFER than D. As east with Qxx in S and Kxxx(x) I would you X 4D 100%. With QJxx its less clear but I like double too since its highly unlikely that the cost is going to be higher than the benefits vs good players.

 

For sure If east turn out with 2 D honnors ill put the hand on BW to see if East should have made a lead directing X. and if west underlead from 2D honnors ill put the hand as a lead problem its going to be interesting one way or another. We will see if my reasonning beat Timo 100% confidence :)

[Finch]

Im surprised nobody take the lead into account. Why would west make an agressive lead under a D honnor here ? North didnt show a control in clubs and didnt a show a real suit.

 

Im more agressive than passive when it come to leads but here i wouldnt lead under Hxxxx, Hxxx if I have a safe alternative. In fact when I get low spot lead like this vs top notch players I tend to finesse in S one way or another (but not here obv). The 52-48% odds no longer applies when you get a non-S lead.

 

Obviously one needs to ask opponents about their leads.

If anything, I think the diamond lead makes it more likely the HQ is offside, because (i) I'd expect an aggressive lead on this auction and (ii) RHO didn't double 4D looking at a diamond honour, which implies that he also has a heart honour and didn't know what suit he wanted led.

[benlessard]

Good point about both Qh and Qd, maybe with QJ of D and Qh its dangerous to X 4D because its telling too much but at the same time it could break an endplay. However I disagree about the need to make an agressive lead here, dummy is 12-14 bal and didnt show a real suit, bidding 4NT keycard is often a sign of a club shortness, when you know partner doesnt have the K♣ the hand go up in value. Curious to see the full hand and curious to see why east didnt double.

[MrAce]

Never said it was safe ive said SAFER than D. As east with Qxx in S and Kxxx(x) I would you X 4D 100%. With QJxx its less clear but I like double too since its highly unlikely that the cost is going to be higher than the benefits vs good players. For sure If east turn out with 2 D honnors ill put the hand on BW to see if East should have made a lead directing X. and if west underlead from 2D honnors ill put the hand as a lead problem its going to be interesting one way or another. We will see if my reasonning beat Timo 100% confidence :)

 

Why not just ask them what you want to ask clearly and openly, if you are % 100 confident? Why do you need to spin around? Why would you ask them if they would dbl or not with QJxx or KJxx? And then make another topic asking them what would they lead from QJxx(x) KJxxx Kxxx Qxxx? Or whether they lead from this suit or not. There will be people who doubles and others who won't as there will be people who leads and who won't. And then you will try to wrap this up, and come to a conclusion about what this lead in hand suggests, whether it is as strong as you think it is. Why not shoot it straight brother?

 

Ben, why would you be interested in what majority of the players think about this lead anyway? Why not just ask to those who had proven themselves with frequent/big achievements in BW, since you seem to ignore those in BBF? Just pm to Weinstein-Woolsey-Gawin-and any other you can think of. I trust you, just do it and let us know. I am really not interested in John Doe's and Jane Doe's opinions. Haven't you learnt your lesson in forums yet? For example MikeH, a very good player and usually makes a good analysis of declarer play, in a recent topic wrote a line, which then later he admitted that it was not a good line. (Commonwealth Challenge topic) There were much better lines, yet he had the most upvotes. Does that tell you something about majority opinions?

 

At the end of the day, if we are going to play W for Q of hearts, this should be due to odds rather than some subjective analysis of the lead imo.(regarding the OP hand)

[benlessard]

Im only interest in majority opinions when its to know what is considered "standard" for when i play with a random/unknown partner. But for the majority of polls im interested in top level individual answers not numbers im pretty sure most people I know care more about expert opinions than about majority opinions unless they are in politics or marketing.

 

I don't think the lead and the failure to double are irrelevant in this problem. They have a real life influence on the odds and distributions of cards even if they are undisclosed and subjective informations. Overall here I don't know wich line is better but I find the D lead odd.

 

The classic case where I still see top level players miss is this one.. you have 9 trumps missing the Q and you have a sure outside loser. If you get a spot lead that has some risk you should finesse vs LHO even if the odds for the drop are a priori 52% while the finesse is 48%. The reason is that with trumps xx-Qx you are going to get a trump lead some % of times. While they will never lead trumps from Qxx-x so when you cash a big one from your hand and play low to dummy and lho follow twice the trumps are more likely to be Qxx--x than xx--Qx. This is of course not true if you get a lead from a sequence like JT(9 or 8).