How dumb is 5 diamond bid

[sceptic]

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=s84hqj9532dtca654&w=s96ht84dkq87542c7&e=sj5hak76dj3cqt982&s=sakqt732hda96ckj3]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

West North East South

 

 -     2♥    Pass  4♠

 5♦    Pass  6♦    Dbl

 Pass  Pass  Pass  

 

hi just curious as to how dumb my 5!D sacrifice was, I am not really interested in the rest of it as I can only say, I got slaughtered for it

[keylime]

Five diamonds is begging for a old fashioned butt whooping.

[EricK]

The 5♦ sacrifice is like putting your head on the block.

 

If partner isn't going to read it as a sacrifice then it is like sharpening the axe, handing it to the executioner, drawing a dotted line on your neck and then putting your head on the block.

 

Eric

[guggie]

You have too much losers and not enough winners. You will score 4 or 5 diamond tricks, that is 5 or 6 down, doubled. It never can be good against a game, even if they are vulnerable and you are not it is 620 against 1100 or 1400.

In this hand you were very lucky, yr partner brought 2 tricks in hearts and Jx in the trump suit. And 4S is cold.

[helene_t]

I think it could be a good sacrifice. Partner has two tricks (if he has less there is probably slam for the opps) so you add 2+6=8, three down is acceptable. Of course, partner may have more defensive tricks than offensive one, or the opp's slam may be unbiddable. Partner may not read 5♦ as a sacrifice so I think I would pass.

[hotShot]

1) You hold a 7 card suit, your LHO hold at least a 6 card suit and your RHO holds at least a 7 card suit. What distribution can you expect from your partner?

 

2) Where are the ♣? Give 12♣ to 3 player.

So LHO is likely to 6♥3-4♣, RHO might hold 7♠3-4♣

Leaving your partner with 3-4♥ 4-6♣ and short in ♠ and ♦.

 

3) Well you hold 7 looser. You may loose 3 doubled tricks, so you need at least 2 tricks from your p. Your p HCP are most likely ind ♣ and ♥ his longest suits. ♥ may be ruffed by your RHO (expect LHO to lead Ace and RHO to ruff the second round). And you think your ♣ single is good, well if partner holds ♣ honors, it's not.

 

4) Where will you get thoses tricks?

[the hog]

Well you are going to be doubled, of course and I expect to pay a lot for this bid. Pd MAY have the Ace of C, who knows....I would pass without too much thought.

[Chamaco]

hi just curious as to how dumb my 5!D sacrifice was, I am not really interested in the rest of it as I can only say, I got slaughtered for it

The main point here is that we are at IMPS and not at MP.

 

I will try to make my point as a cost benefit analysis.

 

1- WHEN YOU ARE RIGHT TO BID 5D,

the likely scenario is that they make 4S (or more) and you go down 2 or 3 doubled.

 

You lose 300 or 500 v 620-650 of their game making, so the net gain ranges between 350 and 120.

 

On a very good day you might even go down only one, but I would not count on that (in that case probably pard has so many tricks that 4S would go down so it would be a phantom sacrifice).

 

On an extraordinarily good day, you may make 5D, but I would not count on that, because:

- a. opps are at unfavourable vuln so it is likely it is THEIR hand after they bid 4S

- b. even when 5D does make, if pard has such a good hand, he is likely to raise you to 6D

 

2- WHEN YOU ARE WRONG

when you are wrong, there are many cases:

 

a. THEY HAVE 4S but you go down more: you may score -500/-800/-1100

b. THEY DO NOT HAVE 4S, and this is the worse of all: your net loss in that case can be huge. In the best case your loss is "only" 200 (100 for their down 1 and -100 for our down 1 doubled), in the worse case it can be 1200 (100+1100) or 1500.

 

---------------------------------------------

 

BOTTOMLINE:

 

When you are right, the gain is between fair and modest; when you are wrong, the losses range between modest to huge.

 

So you are betting against the odds.

[mr1303]

I can't see why partner should bid 6D with his hand, even if he thought 5D showed a good hand.But 5D was stupid as a) you've no guarantee of a fit :rolleyes: you may have defensive values and c) most of all, to bid anything here at all is a complete breach of partnership discipline. He did not overcall over 2H, and has not asked you to sacrifice at the 5 level. Even if it went only 2 down with 4S making, I would still not be impressed.

[whereagles]

I think a 5D bid at this stage should be strong. Therefore I would pass 4S.

[inquiry]

I think a 5D bid at this stage should be strong. Therefore I would pass 4S.

At this vul, I would never take 5♦ as be strong. The opponents are vul, you are not, and they appear to have a misfit.

 

NS are laydown for 6Spades (one diamond ruff, ♦A, 7♠ and 3♣) so down five in 6♦X 1100 shouldn't be total disaster if the field is finding the vul slam. Having said that, -1100 versus -680 is no picknic.

 

Let's evaluate rather you should bid 5♦. LHO has six hearts on bidding, you have three and RHO is short in hearts (else, why not play hearts).. so your partner rates to have three and possibly four hearts. This is a factor against bidding. Second, LHO has six hearts, RHO has seven or more spades, and you are lookng at seven diamonds. Where is the club suit, for which you have one? Your partner rates to be long in clubs, and yet he didn't bid over 2♥. His legnth in clubs is not a good thing for you either.

 

They may have no fit, you may have no fit. Let this sleeping dog alone. Risk versus rewards here are not right... if you can hold 5♦ to down three, you might have a chance ot beat 4♠, and down three versus their game is not than many imps for you (-620 versus -500), nor is -620 verus -800 that expensive. But the real problem is when you can beat four spades and you go negative in 5♦ or when your 5♦ bid wakes them up and they bid their slam that the hussling 4♠ made impossible witout your help.

 

Ben

[Rebound]

I agree with Ben. The opponents have no real idea of each other's hands and therefore cannot know if 4♠ is their best spot. But you make it easier on them by bidding 5♦. It reminds me of some advice I once read regarding balancing. One should not do so if the opponents do not have a fit. That would seem to apply here also. Just MHO.

[sceptic]

I need to rethink things, I took my club Single as positive sign

[whereagles]

On the contrary. The 4S bidder knows EXACTLY what pard has. N/S know very well what's going on and if there's one sure thing here, that thing is that 4S *is* their best fit (unless the 4S bidder is joking). The only one in the dark here is the person one with diamonds, who doesn't have a clue 4S makes or not, or if a 5D sacrifice is good or bad.

 

I think a 5D bid here is best used as strong because:

A ) Playing 5D weak, you'd have no way to bid strong diam hand if the hand if 4S was weak.

B ) If you're weak the best guess is usually to pay the price for the preempt and pass.

 

Holding the diamond hand, no one would bid

 

4S 5D

 

just because 4S was at red vs green, so why should

 

2H pass 4S 5D

 

be any different??

 

Besides, if you guess to pass, the 2H guy passes and they miss a slam ;)

[Guest Jlall]

5D is playing craps imo. 6D was even wrose.

[pclayton]

I'm OK with 5♦ and I agree with Ben that it doesn't promise anything.

 

Whats this 6♦ call? Pard (should) know that your action is 2-way and that you are bidding under pressure.

 

A lot of real good things can happen with 5♦:

 

It can be a great (-100, win 11), good (-300, win 8) or OK (-500, win 3) sac.

 

It can push the opps to 5♠, which may go down.

 

A few really lousy things can happen with 5♦:

 

5♦ goes for a bath (-800, lose 4) or is really awful (-1100, lose 11). But is doen FIVE really realistic on this? Who's going to have the strong 4 card trump stack?

 

Pard is beating 4♠. Again, highly unlikely since pard can't find a call over 2♥.

 

Pard takes you 'serious' and raises you to 6.

 

 

I think 5♦ is indicated. Those that pass are the ones that come back to the home table and say: "push board, what could we do about it?"

[Flame]

The good news is that you are agressive and not afraid to go down, its not dumb but you should read all the responses and you will find clues to why this bid isnt good. this exact hand wont come again but those pros and cons will help you on other hands. I can add that when you see your opponents bidding in the dark, like after you premprt or one of them prempt , you shouldnt assume they know what they are doing, they might have a cold slam here and not bidding it.

One last point, if you do bid 5D do it in time a confidently, this might help more times then one can imagine.

[fred]

I have to admit that I not even seriously consider bidding 5D on this hand (unless perhaps if I knew that my team was losing and that we desperately needed a swing).

 

Perhaps the best way to explain why is because I would expect that most other players wouldn't seriously consider this call either (probably because I would assume that they, like me, would think that this hand lacks the offensive values for an overcall at the 5-level).

 

Since 5D is a call that most other players would not make, by choosing to make this call there is an excellent chance you will be in a "top or bottom" situation (I know you are playing IMPs here so perhaps a better way of stating this point is that you are taking an action that rates to create a swing).

 

In general I am against the idea of taking such swingy actions. I prefer to play "down the middle" and try to win from either my good play, my partner's good play, or from the opponents' bad play. Bids like 5D on this hand will have a random effect on my results and I prefer to try minimize the effects of randomness on my score.

 

I wouldn't characterize the 5D call as "dumb", but it is not my style to play this way (and even if it was, my judgment suggests that in the long run you will lose more IMPs than you will gain by making this call).

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[pbleighton]

"I prefer to play "down the middle" and try to win from either my good play, my partner's good play, or from the opponents' bad play. Bids like 5D on this hand will have a random effect on my results and I prefer to try minimize the effects of randomness on my score."

 

Fred, does this mean that if the field became predominantly MOSCITO or EHAA, that you would feel obliged to switch to that system, in order to be with the field?

 

Peter :)

[fred]

I am not sure how I would deal with the state of affairs you describe, Peter.

 

Perhaps I would choose to stop playing or just play in events in which there severe restrictions on system (presuming such events existed). Most likely I would just keep playing whatever system I liked. I doubt very much that I would be willing to play any given bidding system just because everyone else was doing so (especially a system that I did not enjoy playing or a system that I think was damaging the game of bridge).

 

Fortunately (at least as far as I am concerned and also, in my opinion, as far as bridge is concerned), I don't think the whole world is going to switch to the kinds of systems you describe in the foreseeable future.

 

In any case, my stated preference of playing "down the middle" has more to do with style than with system. The problem presented in this thread, for example, has nothing to do with the system you play - it is a pure judgment call.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[pbleighton]

"I don't think the whole world is going to switch to the kinds of systems you describe in the foreseeable future."

 

Thanks, Fred, but my tongue was firmly in my cheek.

 

Peter