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Was I just lucky?


  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. Your call?

    • pass
      14
    • X
      9
    • 4D
      0
    • something else
      0


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Sectional swiss, average opponents.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=skqjh32dakq65c654&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=p3h]133|200[/hv]

 

I decided to pass this, though I was fairly sure they wouldn't pass at the other table (they didn't). Game may be unlikely, but the cost of missing game is high.

 

Pass was right this time, but I'm not confident about it. Was I just lucky?

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P being a passed hand makes a huge difference in the expected balance

of power as well as in the risk vs reward calculation. The RVR seems to

have mainly 4 spades as the target for the great score chance and since

partner has already passed at favorable the odds are they will need to

hold exactly 5 spades in order to make 4s feasible. That's a pretty darn

small target to hit.

 

P average hand rates to be around 6 while lho rates to be around 11 so

we have a small target of 5 spades and p needs to be well above average to

give us a real shot at game. Slim pickings with a fair amount of risk if

lho turns out to be the one with well above average power.

 

pass

 

seems reasonable under these conditions.

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I will try double. No special confidence but I hate selling out to favorable preempts with good hands.

You are not selling out by passing. On some occasions partner, even though he is a passed hand, will balance. It is clear that on those occasions it will be right to balance. There are others where it is right to be in the auction, but I suspect on balance your best action is to pass in direct seat. This is especially true if partner will open the bidding on any excuse.

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Well, you might be cold for 3NT opposite a simple hand like

 

Axx

Axx

xxx

xxxx

 

Not that game will be reached if you act, though... :) The answer to whether or not you're right passing would require a sim. Without one, my feeling is that pass is ok. I would probably do it.

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It is either pass or DBL. Any other call is pretty bad imho.

 

It is easier to pass for those of us who opens very aggressively 1 level or preempts aggressively. But if your general style is very conservative at these colors, and we have a lot of players like this, then you are pretty much gambling with either action and this is another downside example of this style.

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VIP member has correctly said everything.I wish to add one more factor.One does not yet know what LHO hand is since his turn has to come still.Being vulnerable against not ,if you double ,you may be slaughtered for 800 plus.
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I don't think a weak NT with 3 cards in the other major is worth a double at 3 level.

Edgar Kaplan would disapprove calling this a weak NT. It has 15.80 of his knr points. 14.99 knr points is a maximum weak NT in his book.

knr = Kaplan @ Rubens points.

 

edit: I agree with pass for the problem.

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