No Gambling

[PhantomSac]

Not sure I follow. I was assuming that the gambling 3NT showed zero outside values.

 

I mean on this hand. Even without any possibility of ruffing out spades you can make on 3-3 clubs or the heart hook which is roughly the same chance as a 3-2 break already. You can do better though the play will be complicated since you squeeze dummy if you play a third trump.

[benlessard]

Maybe the timing is right for a psych. If your like me and in 1st seat its "rarely psych rather than never psych" than I think the timing is right you are W vs red, you have a parachute suit and you dont have a good "normal" bid. This is a very random auction however so its for sure running score and who you are playing agaisnt is everything and its not going to be for everyone taste. I think 1H/1S/1Nt are all fine at this vul but you should stick to your prefered style of psych. Overall in my career I was pretty lucky with my psych and pretty unlucky against them so when it come to psych Im biased and I think rarely is better than never.

[Zelandakh]

Maybe the timing is right for a psych.

So you open 1♠ and partner responds with some forcing raise, say 2NT or 4♦. How are you planning to extricate yourself from here?

[benlessard]

So you open 1♠ and partner responds with some forcing raise, say 2NT or 4♦. How are you planning to extricate yourself from here?

 

ill pass and take my bad score hoping that in the long run it will be less than the good score I get when my psych is working.

[ArtK78]

Thanks for the replies. I decided to open 1D. Partner has somewhere in the region of AJT9x AQx J AKQx, and had the everyday auction of 1D-(1S)-P-(P)-2D-(P)-6NT, just making when partner took "insurance" by giving up a spade. Diamonds were 3-2.

I don't understand. Even if you get a spade lead into the AJT9x, giving up a spade only assures you of 3 spades, 1 heart, 3 diamonds and 3 clubs. Giving up a spade increases your chances of making 12 tricks, but gives up on 13. After a spade lead to an honor and your ace, to make 12 tricks with diamonds not breaking you would need 2 of the following three things:

 

(1) 3-3 clubs

(2) 4-4 spades

(3) Heart K onside.

 

I don't believe there are any real squeeze chances here, but maybe there are some remote possibilities of a squeeze if one person guards three suits.

 

On a rounded suit lead, giving up a spade might give you some additional chances of making on a squeeze or incredibly favorable lie of the spade suit, but the additional chance of making gained at the cost of an overtrick is so much less than a 3-2 diamond break that it is not worth it at matchpoints. For it to be right to give up a spade on, say, a club lead, you would have to be almost certain that no other pair was in 6NT.

 

Even at IMPs it might be wrong to duck a trick early. You might be giving up an IMP in return for a very slightly increased chance of making. Now, it is almost always right to play safe when facing IMP odds of 13-1 or so. But it is not clear that you are gaining enough of a benefit by ducking a trick here to give away an IMP even at those odds.