Oink Oink

[Antrax]

[hv=pc=n&s=skj2hajdaq87ckt93&n=sa6hkqt74d4cq8654&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1dp1h2s2n(18-19%20bal%2C%20%21S%20stop)p3c(NMF.%205+%21H%207+%20TP)p3n(Or%203%21D%2C%20doesn%27t%20matter)p4c(4+%21C%205+%21H%207+TP)p]266|200[/hv]

Once the auction reaches that spot (unavoidable unless opener supports hearts on AJ and then you end up in 4♥), you're trapped. 4NT is RKCB for clubs, suit bids have weird meanings and you have to let GIB declare clubs instead of just playing in NT. As the cards lay 6♣ makes but from GIB's perspective opener could have ♠KJxx ♥AJ ♦AQxxx ♣Kx - there's no reason to assume opener has club support, especially given the ♦ opening bid, but the system would leave you with no recourse if that were your hand. You'd bid 3♦ instead of 3NT to show rebiddable ♦ but GIB still bids 4♣ over that.

[iandayre]

The bid you would like to make is 4D as a cuebid in support of Clubs. What "weird meaning" does the description give that bid? 4H, having already denied 3 of them by bidding 3NT, isn't a bad choice either.

[steve2005]

Suitplay gives 64% chance of winning 4♣ tricks which would make 6♣.

 

4♣ is forcing (Gib used NMF but would probably be forcing in any method), have to make a bid. Gib will be in charge of the hand which is scary but you've shown a 18-19 balanced so this is normal.

[1eyedjack]

I have no reason to doubt your figure of 64%. I have not checked it but instinctively it seems about right and on that basis accept it.

 

However the slam is only that good because of their combined Club holding (and having the other suits wrapped up for 8 tricks and no losers) (of course on some other Club holdings it could be better as well as worse).

 

At the point of bidding 4C (and thereby denying the partnership an option to bail in 4N), North is in ignorance of South's precise Club holding (and the other precise factors that affect slam prospects).

 

So I think that it is misleading to read anything into the 64% success rate of slam on the precise cards as dealt.

 

The relevant question to be addressed is whether (without sight of the actual hands) there is, on the stated auction up to 4C inclusive, a reasonable likelihood that South might want to suggest 4N as a final contract, and yet have slam prospects sufficiently good (from North's perspective) as to justify the 4C bid.

 

My instinct is that if 4C is justified, there remains a sufficient likelihood that South might want to discourage with 4N as to justify 4N as being a non-forcing contract suggestion.

 

 

 

[Antrax]

The bid you would like to make is 4D as a cuebid in support of Clubs. What "weird meaning" does the description give that bid? 4H, having already denied 3 of them by bidding 3NT, isn't a bad choice either.

What do I do with ♣Kx, though? I could reasonably be 5-4-2-2 with no support for GIB, or if 2NT precludes that, only have three clubs with no useful T9.