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What a difference an 8 makes


1eyedjack

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[hv=sn=1eyedjack&s=SQ4HK3DQ853CAKQT9&wn=Robot&w=SK652HAJT87D7C864&nn=Robot&n=SAJ8H92DT9642CJ53&en=Robot&e=ST973HQ654DAKJC72&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=PPP1N(notrump%20opener.%20Could%20have%205M.%20--%202-5%20%21C)PPP&p=D7D2DKD8H5HKHAH2HJH9H4H3HTD4HQD3DAD5S6D6H6S4H7S8H8SJSTC9S2SAS3SQ&c=6]400|300[/hv]

 

MP, 55% robot rebate, best hand south, pro gib v 30

 

I don't know if there is a lesson that I can take away from this.

 

The hand was played 6 times, myself included. The auction was identical at all 6 tables.

 

The contract made 7 tricks at 5 tables, myself not included. 0%.

 

At my table the defence cashed the first 7 tricks off the top, and I claimed the next 6.

 

I suspect that variations in spot cards played at trick 1 account for the deviation.

 

At 3 (of the other) tables, declarer and dummy followed to trick 1 with their lowest diamonds.

 

At one, dummy played 10, 3 from hand.

 

At one, dummy played bottom, 5 from hand.

 

I played bottom from dummy, 8 from hand (the card I was known to hold, at least by East).

 

Is there any clue that I should not?

 

 

 

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With Q8753 and NT contract, supposedly not some clues, like 1N P P P, GIB would lead 5.

 

No, you misunderstood my question.

 

Out of a population of Q8753, West might hold the following possibilities that include the 7 (led at trick 1):

 

7

Q7, 87, 75, 73

Q87, Q75, Q53, 875, 873, 753

Q875, Q873, Q753, 8753

Q8753

 

It is suggested by BBradley62 that of all these possibilities, GIB would lead the 7 from, and only from,

7, 75, 73, Q87 (singleton 7 added by me). Do you agree with this?

 

Proceeding on the assumption that you do, then when West leads the 7, South may hold the complementary cards:

Q853, Q83, Q85 or 53

 

Earlier I the thread I suggested that South was known to hold the 8 once the 7 had been led but this was in error as it did not allow for West holding Q87, I don't think that this materially affects my point.

 

You have suggested that my play of the 8 makes me heavy favourite (from East's viewpoint) to have started with Q853. I don't follow this.

 

It was my understanding that

a) GIB claims to play insignificant cards at random, and

b) GIB assumes that its opponents (and partners), including humans, adopt the same strategy.

 

If 8, 5 and 3 are essentially equal insignificant cards in terms of their trick taking potential, it seems to me that Q853 is a statistically minority holding from which to play the 8, in contrast to your suggested "very likely".

 

Incidentally I am not convinced that GIB plays small cards at random. I have no empirical data but my gut feel is that it is weighted to concealing the smallest card in favour of playing a higher one. Until rumbled to it, this is likely to be a winning strategy, as most inexperienced players will lose track of the smaller card.

 

Not that any of this is necessarily relevant to why the defence opted to cash 7 tricks off the top against me alone.

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Let say GIB had

 

8753/753

 

The lead would be 3. Not 7.

 

So by seeing 7 and then 8, GIB-East knows 7 is from ( 7/73/75 ). 8753 is off by default as declarer cannot be singleton. 753 is not possible and neither Q75/Q73/Q87 which makes declarer not having just 8(5/3).

 

So with impossibility of Qx in declarer's hand, diamond continuation doesn't need to be in rush. It will cash declarer's Q as additional trick while heart stopper, if just one, is not kicked out.

 

GIB is not considering 8 to be misleading or random. It just deals declarer with some cards and no matter what declarer throws away. It's not GIB-East problem. 8 is as important card just to help defender confirming the partner's or declarer's holding in some suit.

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