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Does Nate Silver compare apples to oranges?


helene_t

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I usually value Nat Silver quite high but I wonder how serious you can take this survey. What do you think?

 

Basically, just about any star trek figure, even Dart Vader, could beat just about any presidential candidate. And congress is less popular than just about any evil, including cockroaches and Genghis Khan. Among the few things that are even less popular than congress is North Korea and Donald Trump.

 

Edit: Thanks Barmar for clarryfying, it wasn't Silver who combined those ratings of politicians vs star wars characters in a single overview, it was done by Hufftington Post on the basis of two seperate polls by FiveThirtyEight, one about Star Wars characters and one about presidential candidates.

 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Natl_010813_.pdf

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/07/23/darth-vader-is-polling-higher-than-all-potential-2016-presidential-candidates/

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Err - Darth Vader is Star Wars not Star Trek, your geek credentials just died :)

 

Less popular than lice, about level with Lindsay Lohan, not sure which I'd be more upset with if that was me :)

 

And the most popular politician is Hillary, level with Boba Fett and well behind most of the star wars guys including Vader. The thought of Vader running the US is chilling, but a better option than the tea party I think.

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And the most popular politician is Hillary, level with Boba Fett and well behind most of the star wars guys including Vader. The thought of Vader running the US is chilling, but a better option than the tea party I think.

I find your lack of faith disturbing.

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What exactly should I make of "Women view Congress slightly more favorably than men"?

Grammatically, I doubt that this statement is true. I would suspect that women view men more favorably than they view Congress (although they may view congress with men in an entirely different way).

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Silver's survey didn't ask people to compare Congress with Star Wars characters. That comparison was done by some random reporter. It's definitely comparing apples and oranges, because people consider different things to be important when deciding how they feel about a fictional character and real people whose actions affect their lives. When you're rating Darth Vader as a character, you're not actually picking them from a ballot that contains them and a particular politician.

 

The poll that compared Congress with lice and cockroaches also wasn't done by Silver. While it did ask respondents to compare them directly, it's a nonsensical comparison. Cockroaches and colonoscopies are minor annoyances in life, while what Congress does affects millions of people.

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This reminds me of the fact that the "generic Republican candidate" always polls better than any actual possible Republican candidate...

 

When you book a hotel through Hotwire, you just pick a general category and, after you agree to take it, they tell you which hotel you are getting. Maybe they could try this approach to elections.

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