mikeh Posted July 25, 2014 Report Share Posted July 25, 2014 Explain why 6C makes more often than 6S please.You are known to have at least an 8 card S fit.The odds of having fewer than 8 clubs are pretty long, since one can suppose the opps have a big heart fit, and partner didn't make a roman jump overcall (note this is the expert forum where 4♦ to show a spade-diamond 2 suited overcall would be common). As it is, consider a normal layout such as KQxxx xx AKx Qxx. Try making 6♠ on a 4-1 trump break. Obviously, there are many layouts on which spades will indeed be superior to clubs. I don't think it possible to be precise in saying which is the more likely...clubs or spades...since a simulation would be so dependent on constraints. I think the main problem with spades is that any opp with 3 spades, surely a possible holding, can make the 2 slams equivalent even when on the surface spades is better...they simply force dummy to ruff at trick 2 and render slam dependent on bringing the clubs home with no ruff and no loser. By contrast, if we need to ruff spades to establish them, then the odds are high that dummy will have the entries to do that, in diamonds or clubs. So my sense is that when a slam is making, it will usually be both, and when it is merely one black suit, it will, by a slight margin, be clubs. But your experiences may lead you to the different view, and I doubt that either would be able to 'prove' who was correct. The actual result on this hand would be but one data point and unpersuasive no matter what it shows. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted July 25, 2014 Report Share Posted July 25, 2014 5C is very good if, as seems likely, the auction continues. Partner will draw the correct inference after 5S. *** Yup, but is that "other" or "5c to play" in the choices?why should it continue? Surely you don't expect expert opps to save at the 5-level on the auction 2♥ [2♠] 4♥ [5♣] P P ? I don't think that sounds like an auction in which any good player would dream of bidding again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszes Posted July 25, 2014 Report Share Posted July 25, 2014 bidding goes (unfavorable 2h by rho) and you holdxx KQJTxx QJx Qx let me see a show of hands for a 2s bid xx KQJTxx QJx xx still 2s? maybe a few less hands xx KQJTxx xxx xx any 2s bidders? (ill bet there are some) the point is we have no SAFE way of investigating slam if ourovercall range is a potentially wide as shown here and I am afraid a 2s bid will be made with these types of values aLOT. We are fixed and we should probably stay fixed. Rhohad a chance to make life really tough on us by bidding 5hinstead of 4h so it is quite possible that rho bid 4h to make and would love to x us if we venture further. 4s there will be some hands where 5c is superior but spades shouldbe the overall favorite unless our side can make slam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jallerton Posted July 25, 2014 Report Share Posted July 25, 2014 I feel like Gszes. :ph34r: Although he usually votes for "other". Keep using up the full width of the page. Then the feeling will quickly go away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted July 25, 2014 Report Share Posted July 25, 2014 I think this is one of those rare hands where unilateral action may be best. I bid 6♣. I don't like it. I don't choose it because I like it. I choose it because I dislike it the least of the various options available at this stage.I choose 6♣ because I like it. I like it because it may well make, and I like the fact that the opponents won't know whether to save or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jogs Posted July 26, 2014 Report Share Posted July 26, 2014 I think black slams are probably equivalent in odds. It's not really a question of fit length but more this: if a heart force jeopardises dummy's clubs in 6♠, then 6♣ will require some club luck too. The slams are probably close. But if things go wrong, 6♣ should go down fewer tricks than 6♠. 7-1 play better than 5-3. The club suit may be worth only two tricks in spades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted July 26, 2014 Report Share Posted July 26, 2014 Why are you guys thinking that partner has 5 spades?, the average for a 2♠ overcall I think its close to 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted July 26, 2014 Report Share Posted July 26, 2014 Why are you guys thinking that partner has 5 spades?, the average for a 2♠ overcall I think its close to 6. 6 spades or 5 spades/5♦ are quite likely, but partner might be a bit snookered, he appears to be holding some hearts so 5341 and too much to pass must be possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted July 27, 2014 Report Share Posted July 27, 2014 why some hearts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted July 27, 2014 Report Share Posted July 27, 2014 why some hearts? Because opps green v red with a 6-5 fit might have bid more than 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted July 27, 2014 Report Share Posted July 27, 2014 Why are you guys thinking that partner has 5 spades?, the average for a 2♠ overcall I think its close to 6. Because albeit that's the theory, in practice everybody overcalls with 5 cards :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted July 27, 2014 Report Share Posted July 27, 2014 The slams are probably close. But if things go wrong, 6♣ should go down fewer tricks than 6♠. 7-1 play better than 5-3. The club suit may be worth only two tricks in spades. That is correct, yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted July 27, 2014 Report Share Posted July 27, 2014 Because opps green v red with a 6-5 fit might have bid more than 4 People don't jump to the 5 level without tryin the 4 level as much as you think, and it just takes a 6-4 fit for partner to have less than 3 hearts. Because albeit that's the theory, in practice everybody overcalls with 5 cards :) The also overcall 2♠ with 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted July 27, 2014 Report Share Posted July 27, 2014 Won't partner bid 2♠ on most opening hands that have five spades? Some 51(43) or 5044 shapes will double, and some hands will overcall 2NT or 4♦, but all the 5332 13-counts will bid 2♠. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted July 27, 2014 Report Share Posted July 27, 2014 The also overcall 2♠ with 7. Yes, but usually the bid with 7 spades is game :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted July 27, 2014 Report Share Posted July 27, 2014 Why are you guys thinking that partner has 5 spades?, the average for a 2♠ overcall I think its close to 6.I don't see anyone claiming that partner has precisely 5 spades. I see a lot of posters, me included, allowing for the possibility that he has 5. Surely you agree that he can have 5? Those of us who bid clubs recognize the risks and I don't see anyone claiming that we are sure to have more combined clubs than spades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_20686 Posted August 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2014 The full hand was: [hv=pc=n&s=st4ha863dakt86c53&w=sa76h7d75cakj9764&n=sj3hjt9542d92ct82&e=skq9852hkqdqj43cq]399|300[/hv] So the five level is already too high, even though partner has a pretty decent hand. This felt very unlucky. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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