What is the best chance of making this contract?

[Wackojack]

I was playing this hand in the Mid Wales Swiss Teams and went one off and was not sure if I gave myself the best chance of making it.

 

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NS are playing 4th 2nd leads and North leads the 3♠.

 

1. You play 2, South 10 who switches to 2♦. Your plan?

 

2. You play Q which holds South playing the 2. You play Ace and another club to your Q in hand which holds, followed by another club. North discards 4♦. South leads 2♦. Your plan?

 

3. You play A♠ and then on clubs as before. This time South plays 10♠overtaken by North with the J. Your plan?

 

Or do you do something else?

[whereagles]

There's a good chance the lead is from KTxx or KJxx (with KJT2 he might have led the jack, with T9xx maybe the ten). I'd try the queen and start on clubs, driving out the king.

 

So basically, plan2.

[mcphee]

Seems to me it looks best to play a H to the J when you win the D in the dummy, if it holds you are not in bad shape and can get started on clubs.

[Wackojack]

There's a good chance the lead is from KTxx or KJxx (with KJT2 he might have led the jack, with T9xx maybe the ten). I'd try the queen and start on clubs, driving out the king.

 

So basically, plan2.

 

OK 1,2 and 3 were alternative starts and any one of these happen to to lead to making provided you guess correctly what next to do. So what do you do next?

[Wackojack]

Seems to me it looks best to play a H to the J when you win the D in the dummy, if it holds you are not in bad shape and can get started on clubs.

 

OK

If you immediately finessed the Q♠ and then tried the ♥ finesse. It fails but you still have chances. Do you now rely on clubs 3-3 and K with South or some other play?

 

OR If you tried play 1. Then the losing heart finesse is fatal.

[Winstonm]

My immediate thought upon seeing the hand was to rise with the spade Ace and lead a heart to the J. Seems to me that one can play for the clubs to come in for 4 tricks, 3-3 r 4-2, king doubleton onside, but if this isn't happening then the immediate heart finesse yields extra chances.

[whereagles]

OK 1,2 and 3 were alternative starts and any one of these happen to to lead to making provided you guess correctly what next to do. So what do you do next?

 

Jack of diamonds. Assuming this holds, club next. I'm in good shape to make 3 clubs, 2 spades, 2 diamonds, 2 hearts.

[rhm]

If you loose 2 club tricks while establishing them your chances are poor. You will have to rely on the heart finesse.

Chances that clubs can be established for 4 tricks are 44% (clubs 3-3 or South having Kx).

Overall this line is not that bad (a bit less than 70%) but one drawback is that it makes the defense fairly easy.

If we play on hearts chances for 3 tricks in hearts are almost 70%, which with 2 spade tricks and 4 tricks in the minors will give you 9 tricks.

This might be improved further if you can endplay opponents to lead hearts into ♥K9 or squeeze North in the majors.

 

However, we also need to be careful not to establish too many tricks to the defense and we have entry troubles.

 

Win spade queen and play a low club to the queen without cashing the ace. (Why establish a club trick for South early? If he has ♣Kx he will play the king anyway)

We need club ace for communication.

If the club queen loses we can test the clubs later. Assume the queen wins.

Now force a diamond entry to dummy to take the heart finesse.

I guess a spade will come back when the heart finesse loses.

 

I would win, unblock the herts and then simply try to get my second trick in diamonds.

I will then decide whether I can cut communications in the minors and endplay an opponent to lead hearts or clubs or whether I should try to drop the heart ten.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[Wackojack]

If you loose 2 club tricks while establishing them your chances are poor. You will have to rely on the heart finesse.

Chances that clubs can be established for 4 tricks are 44% (clubs 3-3 or South having Kx).

Overall this line is not that bad (a bit less than 70%) but one drawback is that it makes the defense fairly easy.

If we play on hearts chances for 3 tricks in hearts are almost 70%, which with 2 spade tricks and 4 tricks in the minors will give you 9 tricks.

This might be improved further if you can endplay opponents to lead hearts into ♥K9 or squeeze North in the majors.

 

However, we also need to be careful not to establish too many tricks to the defense and we have entry troubles.

 

Win spade queen and play a low club to the queen without cashing the ace. (Why establish a club trick for South early? If he has ♣Kx he will play the king anyway)

We need club ace for communication.

If the club queen loses we can test the clubs later. Assume the queen wins.

Now force a diamond entry to dummy to take the heart finesse.

I guess a spade will come back when the heart finesse loses.

 

I would win, unblock the herts and then simply try to get my second trick in diamonds.

I will then decide whether I can cut communications in the minors and endplay an opponent to lead hearts or clubs or whether I should try to drop the heart ten.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

Thanks for that, your logic seems to make sense. OK you have got to this position with one trick lost so far and the lead in hand. The ♠KJ are with North and the K♣is almost certainly with South. Where is the ♦A? What now?

 

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OTOH suppose North returns a diamond and not a spade when in with the Q♥? You win in hand. The position is this. What now? If you like you can have the J♦ in hand and not the K.

 

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[rhm]

Thanks for that, your logic seems to make sense. OK you have got to this position with one trick lost so far and the lead in hand. The ♠KJ are with North and the K♣is almost certainly with South. Where is the ♦A? What now?

 

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I would play the ♦K now.

If is holds, cash the ♣A and play the ♦Q. If South has the ♦A and diamonds break (very likely) he is end played. You discard of course spades on the fourth diamond and the ♣K.

If the ♦K is taken by South and a club or diamond comes back, you need to decide between cashing the ♥K hoping to drop the ten or exiting in spades, hoping that North has to lead from ♥Tx at trick 11.

 

OTOH suppose North returns a diamond and not a spade when in with the Q♥? You win in hand. The position is this. What now? If you like you can have the J♦ in hand and not the K.

 

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The scenario is similar but we now have a definite exit card in diamonds and if South has the ace he will be end played.

(This is one advantage of this line that the optimal defense is not straightforward)

I would cash all aces before exiting in diamonds.

I South has the diamond ace you are home, as long as he has 2 spades, the ♣K and no more than four diamonds.

If North has the diamond ace he might have to lead eventually from ♥Tx at trick 11.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[Lovera]

I think to play and unblocking clubs : in this case we loose 2 club, 1 diamonds and 1 spade, stopping every returns to get at 10th trick to squeeze South in S - H for a simple with a twin entry menace (i'm non sure this is against and defence [herts]). I choise line 1).

[gszes]

trick 1 spade Q (lets hope it holds for once)

trick 2 heart to J

 

If we can score 3 heart tricks we need very little else from

the hand to make our game and losing to the heart Q does not

prevent us from trying for 33 clubs later. We can score 3 heart

tricks either by the finesse working or the T dropping 3rd.

 

The other advantage of a heart finesse is that it is the only play

the has to go into the danger hand for sure (we can take the club

finesse through lho and we can hope the dia ace is with rho. By

attacking hearts first we might dislodge lho only entry and might

hold the opps to zero spades so we can make even if we lose the

heart finesse along with dia ace and 2 clubs (both to rho).

[Lovera]

But, looking better, the heart attack is not a problem: infact we need to return in West's hand after to have cashed spade Ace (Vienna coup ) to avoid blockage squeezing South hand (that is not necessary if North) being spade 8 equivalent to Queen against spade 4 - 2. If diamond Ace get off early we may return in West either diamond or, if necessary , in heart (little to Ace). Squeeze ending : W © sq. card (d) - (h) (A) J (s) 8 N (not influent) E (s) - (h) K 9 5 (3) S © - (d) - (h) Q 10 x (s) K.

[Wackojack]

trick 1 spade Q (lets hope it holds for once)

trick 2 heart to J

 

If we can score 3 heart tricks we need very little else from

the hand to make our game and losing to the heart Q does not

prevent us from trying for 33 clubs later. We can score 3 heart

tricks either by the finesse working or the T dropping 3rd.

 

The other advantage of a heart finesse is that it is the only play

the has to go into the danger hand for sure (we can take the club

finesse through lho and we can hope the dia ace is with rho. By

attacking hearts first we might dislodge lho only entry and might

hold the opps to zero spades so we can make even if we lose the

heart finesse along with dia ace and 2 clubs (both to rho).

OK I understand but you haven't followed through what you would do if the heart finesse fails. If say you play for diamond ace with south are you going to try for clubs 3-3? Or plan an end-play and if so how?

[Wackojack]

But, looking better, the heart attack is not a problem: infact we need to return in West's hand after to have cashed spade Ace (Vienna coup ) to avoid blockage squeezing South hand (that is not necessary if North) being spade 8 equivalent to Queen against spade 4 - 2. If diamond Ace get off early we may return in West either diamond or, if necessary , in heart (little to Ace). Squeeze ending : W © sq. card (d) - (h) (A) J (s) 8 N (not influent) E (s) - (h) K 9 5 (3) S © - (d) - (h) Q 10 x (s) K.

Sorry I don't understand.

[Wackojack]

I would play the ♦K now.

If is holds, cash the ♣A and play the ♦Q. If South has the ♦A and diamonds break (very likely) he is end played. You discard of course spades on the fourth diamond and the ♣K.

If the ♦K is taken by South and a club or diamond comes back, you need to decide between cashing the ♥K hoping to drop the ten or exiting in spades, hoping that North has to lead from ♥Tx at trick 11.

 

 

The scenario is similar but we now have a definite exit card in diamonds and if South has the ace he will be end played.

(This is one advantage of this line that the optimal defense is not straightforward)

I would cash all aces before exiting in diamonds.

I South has the diamond ace you are home, as long as he has 2 spades, the ♣K and no more than four diamonds.

If North has the diamond ace he might have to lead eventually from ♥Tx at trick 11.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

Very impressive. Thanks.

 

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This was the actual deal. However, there is an element of betting that the diamond ace is with South. If we put the A♦with north and swap it for a low card, then your play would fail. It is then necessary to endplay North to lead hearts away from the queen. Nevertheless A♦ in the opposite hand to the Q♥and clubs 4-2 looks much more likely.

[Lovera]

Sorry I don't understand.

What don't you understand ?

[Lovera]

It seems that a clarification is required: how i have said on my post n.13 i have choise line 1) trying to solve the contract with an automatic single squeeze heart/spade ; the consideration on opening lead take me thinking that King of spade were in South and then to play for 4-3-2-4 with Q 10 x in heart and A x in diamond . On this absumption i lose then 2 clubs ,1 diamond (if Ace when lead into 3th round for return in other color) and 1 spade. The squeeze position (being automatic ) althougt is with the same cards in North. The consideration about Vienna coup are on tecnique of squeeze and its use . Let' think that if in diamond we have A85 and Ace when played on third round returning heart we can squeeze North only on positional ending of 4 cards (that orients as lie cards ) because we cannot play Ace of spade not having a comunacation for West to play last club as squeeze card. Squeeze ending (with 4 cards) : in West 8 7 in spade, J in heart and last club as sq. card in East A Q or also A 6 in spade , K 9 in heart against K J in spade and Q 10 in heart in North.( I am disponible for ulterior explanation) , bye .