Mbodell Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 [hv=pc=n&s=sk8ha93dkq873cqt4&d=s&v=n&b=15&a=1d1s1np]133|200[/hv] Playing IMP teams with an inperson pickup partner, 2/1 with 15-17 opening 1nt, what would you call here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulg Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 Undo. I'd have opened 1NT. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 If I was going to upgrade I should have done that a round earlier. As it is nothing in the auction has improved my hand so I have an easy pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broze Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 Yes - abstain. I open a 15-17 NT. Not having done so - pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 What makes this hand worth an upgrade? Spot cards look average and honor concentration is poor. Do you automatically upgrade all 5332 hands? IMO if you open this a strong 1NT you should disclose your range as 14-17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 What makes this hand worth an upgrade? The fact that I'll be declaring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulg Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 What makes this hand worth an upgrade? Spot cards look average and honor concentration is poor. Do you automatically upgrade all 5332 hands? IMO if you open this a strong 1NT you should disclose your range as 14-17.5-card suit with two honours and no jacks in the hand. Declaring the range as 14+ to 17 implies that I have some criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 What makes this hand worth an upgrade? Spot cards look average and honor concentration is poor. Do you automatically upgrade all 5332 hands? IMO if you open this a strong 1NT you should disclose your range as 14-17. Shape + intermediates are good, what do I need from partner for game ? Q10x, J10x (Jxx after subsequent events), Jxx, AJxx is a quacky 9 count and may well make game, it's extremely probable on this hand with the subsequent developments, so maybe you can upgrade later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 I pass. Perfectly normal auction. I have a maximum balanced hand for not opening 1NT. That is allowed, despite a lot of sentiment for upgrading to a 1NT opening. It might be right at IMPs to rebid 2♦. But I am not moving towards game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 sign me up for +150 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trevahound Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 Ya'll really think game won't be 40% or better on average? At these colors/form of scoring, I would think 3nt nearly automatic. Defense is hard, and partner rates to have 9-10 (or even 11, when 2nt would be conventional by him) more often than 6-7. Besides, -100 here rates to be a push, but +150 is expensive. I'd rather this played from my side, but that ship has sailed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 Ya'll really think game won't be 40% or better on average? At these colors/form of scoring, I would think 3nt nearly automatic. Defense is hard, and partner rates to have 9-10 (or even 11, when 2nt would be conventional by him) more often than 6-7. Besides, -100 here rates to be a push, but +150 is expensive. I'd rather this played from my side, but that ship has sailed.Partner is not timid. If 3NT has reasonable play opposite my hand, partner would bid more than 1NT. I am not playing him for a super max. And no, I don't think that game is 40% or better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 Ya'll really think game won't be 40% or better on average? No, I don't think. Pard can have 8-9 H, sometimes even 7. Bidding 3NT is playing craps and even if you "win" and find pard with ♦A, you're not a lock for 9 tricks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordontd Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 Ya'll really think game won't be 40% or better on average? At these colors/form of scoring, I would think 3nt nearly automatic. Defense is hard, and partner rates to have 9-10 (or even 11, when 2nt would be conventional by him) more often than 6-7. Besides, -100 here rates to be a push, but +150 is expensive. I'd rather this played from my side, but that ship has sailed.You jump to 3NT with a hand that wasn't strong enough to open 1NT. What do you do with a hand that was too strong to open 1NT? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quiddity Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 There is also the risk of getting doubled when LHO has a good suit and entries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trevahound Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 Of course I could go set. Loss aversion is a huge fallacy in the bridge world, in my experience. If I genuinely think 3nt to be roughly 40%, I would be saying I expect to go set roughly 6 out of 10 times, rather than that I expect it to be gilt edged. I don't think responder should be bidding 1nt here on the same minimum hands that he would make the call at mps. After all, partner will protect if it's just a part score battle, and it's less likely to be critical to win the race to 1nt. I am presuming 1nt shows some actual cards, and not KTxx and a side K. If my experience with this partner shows otherwise, my vote is different. Forcing partner to jump to 2nt on all decent 10's when opener's most likely hand type is a weak NT seems misguided at any form of scoring. Since I expect 8-10 ish, and more than a couple 9's are good enough, I play the IMP odds. At mps I can afford to risk the 10 opposite 14's in 1nt, but hot hot hot at imps? And defense is hard. I've been set before at IMPs, and I've also been doubled and set before, so neither of those will bring out the water works. Cheers, Brian Zaugg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 Loss aversion is indeed a fallacy but so is quoting the 40% like it is set in stone. Those apply for vulnerable games in IMP's provided that we never go down more than 1 and provided that we never get doubled. I don't think either of those conditions apply here. We can go down a bunch if partner brings no help in diamonds, for example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quiddity Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 I doubt anyone will be able to convince you otherwise, but.. you expect 8-10ish. That means you have two balanced hands with 22-24ish and you're jumping to 3NT. I doubt this is percentage even at imps. Also I think you are overrating the chance of a misdefense and underrating the risk of getting doubled and WAY underrating the chance of going down more than one. Defense may be hard but it's likely to be a lot less hard when LHO has announced a 5+ card suit to set up and entries and the lead is coming through your Kx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quiddity Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 The part that I find more interesting is what to expect from responder's 1NT, and whether to expect a stronger hand because this is imps vs mp. I'm not sure, but I think this is wrong. Going down in a red 1nt is likely to be more of a disaster at matchpoints. Protecting at a higher level is more dangerous at imps. So I think it is more important to get your say in early at imps and let partner know that he isn't alone and that he can feel more comfortable fighting for a partscore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasetb Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 A.) Sorry Mike, but count me too as one of the people who upgrade into 1NT. We have a good 5-card suit, and I want to avoid the cheap 1♠ or even 1NT overcall. B.) Having opened 1♦, we now have to pass (my vote in the poll). Unless partner has something like QJxxx or QTxxx, we'll likely have too many points in a Spade suit that we know will break badly, and either Clubs or Hearts will be wide open. I see +120 coming our way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 I like to think I upgrade into and out of 1N as much as most experts, possibly even more than the average, altho I am otherwise quite conservative in my bidding style) but I wouldn't upgrade here. We don't have anything special. The diamond 10 would get me bidding 1N, but without that card, we are looking only at a decent 14 rather than a very good 14. I suspect that at least some of the would-be 1N openers are being influenced, unconsciously, by the realization that this hand would be a far better declarer hand in notrump than it is a dummy hand...imagine partner with a nice 10 count such as Qxx Kxx J10x Axxx We have all kinds of play for game from my side, although it is far from cold on a heart lead, say. However, with the lead coming through my Kx in spades, we are very unlikely to make, since the overcaller rates to hold the diamond Ace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted July 9, 2014 Report Share Posted July 9, 2014 hmm... not sure about overcaller a favorite to hold the diamond ace, mike. It's more like "if ♦A is with opponents, then it's overcaller who is likely to have it". I estimate pard to have the diamond ace about 35-40% of the time. I can run a sim on it if you want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mbodell Posted July 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2014 hmm... not sure about overcaller a favorite to hold the diamond ace, mike. It's more like "if ♦A is with opponents, then it's overcaller who is likely to have it". I estimate pard to have the diamond ace about 35-40% of the time. I can run a sim on it if you want. I'd be interested in a sim. But for the sim we'd need some agreement on what is the strength of the 1nt response in this sequence. Some people were saying that for them partner could have 6-7 some of the time. Some folks think the 1nt here is more of 8/9-11, but others think 10 or more would bid 2nt not 1nt. So I think before you can sim you need agreement for what sort of hands bid 1nt instead of pass or 2nt or something else in this situation (unpassed hand, unfavorable, imps). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted July 9, 2014 Report Share Posted July 9, 2014 Just tell me the constraints you'd like and I'll plug it into the machine :) Can also run it for several types of 1NT styles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted July 9, 2014 Report Share Posted July 9, 2014 Just tell me the constraints you'd like and I'll plug it into the machine :) Can also run it for several types of 1NT styles.I think 8-10 is reasonable. Also there is some constraint on the spade holding - not sure if Qxx is good enough or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.