It's a guess

[Mbodell]

[hv=pc=n&s=sa93hakt5d832ca84&n=skq84hqj8dkjc9532&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1n(15-17)p2cp2hp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Opening lead is the ♦4 playing attitude leads (I.e., the 4 is not necessarily the 4th best spot). (It is A/X Sectional Swiss teams, (IMPs w/ 7 board match on a 20 VP scale) if it matters, and the opponents are a local expert team).

[whereagles]

Clear-cut guess.

[fbuijsen]

I voted "K is marginally better", because I think west is lsightly more likely to choose an aggressive lead holding Axxx(x) than holding Qxxx(x). Given the NS holdings, west might have a better club alternative in the latter case.

But any difference in odds is very small, so you might just as well flip a coin for your choice.

[eagles123]

i'm probably imagining things but I swear I remember reading or hearing somewhere that low from Qxxx is a slightly more common lead than low from Axxx against 3NT?

[helene_t]

The auction makes a diamond lead attractive (declarer/dumy have shown the majors while p didn't double 2♣), I think that W is likely to lead a diamond both from Qxxx and Axxx unless he has 4+ good clubs, which he usually doesn't have when we have seven clubs between us.

[Trinidad]

If the 4 weren't attitude, the correct play would be: "Unblock the king, please." ;)

 

Rik

[Mbodell]

at the table result: I choose the K. I wasn't as worried about the 4-4 split since I still have a chance if diamonds are 4-4 and I guess wrong, so I was more worried about 5-3. I decided that Axxxx might be more encouraging that Qxxxx, but who knows. Of course it was wrong and the split was Qxxxx opposite Axx and I lost the first 5 tricks. It ended up a push at -100, although I don't know the contract and result at the other table.

 

After the hand, I thought that maybe the J is right, not because it is more likely to be right (I think it is pretty much 50/50 on the nose), but because if you have AQ both onside you'll learn more about the distribution of the hand and points from winning the J than from winning the K. But I wasn't sure if that wasn't the resulting of that hand making me find reasons I should have played the J.

[FM75]

Hand of death. Our auction (a super-precision strain) would have started with an amorphous 1♦-1♠, 1NT and we still don't "right-side" this contract. But even if we do, doesn't it still come down to the same guess?

 

I do like "unblock the King". If you did that, would it fool your opponents?

 

Seems like the auction, and your partnership holdings, pretty much guarantees the ♦ lead. Unless spades are 3-3 does it even matter?

 

Next board.

[BillPatch]

Eddie Kantar Teaches Modern Bridge Defense(1999) on p 15 recommends the lead of the suit against NT that does not have the ace

when "You have two suits of equal length and one is headed by the ace." The auction strongly suggests a minor lead, and the discrepancy between suit lengths makes it unlikely that opening leader is 5-5, so this only affects overtricks when for the leader to be 4-4 in the minors, although it may affect the contract when the leader is 3-3.

[gszes]

Looking only at OUR holdings toss a coin and good luck but that's

taking only a cursory glance at the problem. Rho will win the trick

(if not the hand is over) and what they do next might easily depend

on what card you play from the dummy and your hand.

If you play the King and rho wins the ace you have clearly given away

the position of the Q since otherwise your choice of play would be the

J to at the very least let rho think lho has the Q.

If you play the J and rho plays the Q and it holds rho does not know for

sure if their p holds the A (since you might duck to hold up anyway) and if

they have something that "looks better" they might switch.

 

You also need to carefully play the 8 because you want to hide the 32 in case

this might give the impression lho has led 2nd best from nothing in diamonds.

[Finch]

Unless spades are 3-3 does it even matter?

 

er.... yes. If you make a diamond trick, you have 9 tricks. Also, if you get it wrong and diamonds are 5-3 you are immediately off. Both of those make the spade break irrelevant.

[Finch]

As a very general rule, I think a lead from Qxxx is more likely than from Axxx. So if we bid 1NT-3NT and a get a heart lead, I'd play the jack and think it not very close.

If LHO has 5 diamonds, I think it is basically a complete guess, on this auction where opener and responder have both shown a 4-card major he will lead a 5-card diamond suit 100% of the time independent of his holding in the suit*.

If LHO has led a 4 card suit, I still think Q10xx (say) is more tempting than Axxx but this is marginal.

 

 

*unless he's got 5+ clubs as well, that is...

[awm]

If LHO has five diamonds, it's a complete guess (I think he always leads a five-card diamond suit on this auction). If he has four diamonds, a lead from queen is more appealing than a lead from ace; for example holding Axxx Qxxx in the minors I think it's clear to lead from queen. So I'd play the jack here.

[c_corgi]

If West has 3♦ and 4♣, then I think he is more likely to lead a diamond, trying to hit partner if he has the Q; more likely to lead a club, trying to set up his own suit if he has the ♦A as an entry. I wonder what the tipping point would be in terms of quality of West's club suit.

[johnu]

2nd hand low says to play the jack :) On the auction, if I had to bet, I would have bet (not a whole lot)that I would get a diamond lead. South has shown 4 hearts, North has implied 4 spades, East didn't double 2♣. Seriously, I would play the jack on even numbered days, the king on odd number days, except for leap years when I would reverse this method. If I misguess and go down, I blame partner for making the obvious bids.

[rmnka447]

♦ J

 

It's basically a guess, but holding 5 ♦ between the 2 hands some opponent (or both [4-4]) has ♦ length. Like others I suspect LHO would be slightly more likely to lead from Qxxx than Axxx. If they are 5-3, then I don't think LHO would have an issue leading from either Axxxx or Qxxxx. But when they are 3-5, I suspect that LHO would have a lot more trouble leading from Axx than Qxx. So the J seems marginally better than the K to me.

[Finch]

♦ J

 

It's basically a guess, but holding 5 ♦ between the 2 hands some opponent (or both [4-4]) has ♦ length. Like others I suspect LHO would be slightly more likely to lead from Qxxx than Axxx. If they are 5-3, then I don't think LHO would have an issue leading from either Axxxx or Qxxxx. But when they are 3-5, I suspect that LHO would have a lot more trouble leading from Axx than Qxx. So the J seems marginally better than the K to me.

 

Axx is such a horrible lead, I agree Qxx is much more likely.

If you are going to lead Axx in the search for partner's suit, in many cases the Ace is better because partner can read to duck the second round with Kxxxx. That rather depends on the auction making it clear that you are leading from A to three, however.

[BillPatch]

If West has 3♦ and 4♣, then I think he is more likely to lead a diamond, trying to hit partner if he has the Q; more likely to lead a club, trying to set up his own suit if he has the ♦A as an entry. I wonder what the tipping point would be in terms of quality of West's club suit.

Bird/Anthias emphasize non-Stayman auctions in their NT book. In Stayman auctions when opener shows a major there is a fair sized minor preference, and in most cases the longer minor is superior(Most of the hands they cover for this auction have 2,3, or 4 little cards. In these cases shown, the longer minor always shows superior results.)

 

Also, if opener has 4 clubs, it is unlikely his partner was considering doubling Staymen for lead.

[fromageGB]

The lead of the 4 when playing attitude implies to me that it is probably a 5 card suit, so it's 50/50. However, I will feel silly if I lose the J to Q, and the return to A fells my K, whereas going up with K from doubleton, and losing, does not seem so bad. Purely psychological.