(1S) - P - (3S) - X - P - ?

[Mr Rat]

I consulted my database and no one has ever bid 3NT to play in this auction within the last decade in top-level championship play. A couple of illustrative hands did catch my attention:

 

Gavin Wolpert held: ♠J2♥T62♦K964♣7432

 

He guessed to bid 4♦ and got smacked for 500. Partner held a less than ideal ♠T4♥AQJ8♦52♣AQJ85 on which 4♣ makes ten tricks. And no, they could not make 4♠.

 

On another hand Jassem held:♠93♥K♦T9763♣J9862

 

He did not guess - he bid 3NT for the minors and conceded 300 in 5♣ against a vulnerable making game.

 

Widening the search slightly to include 1♥-pass-3♥-x-pass, Bertens held: ♠A95♥AJ4♦J8543♣J4. He cued 4♥ and converted 5♣ to 5♦ down 2. The winning action was 3NT, but maybe that was not an option. If that is true he had another chance - pass would have gathered an easy 500.

Your database looks pretty useful - is it your own creation or is it freely available?

Also, I'm wondering if its search facility is sophisticated enough to differentiate between 3M being pre-emptive versus invitational? The weakness of the first 2 hands (Wolpert & Jassem) makes me wonder if the 3♠ raises were actually systemically invitational.

 

The 1♥ - 3♥ sequence is a bit different, since we have an opportunity to double, cue and bid 3S mostly below game level, so there's less pressure. Partnerships need to agree what these bids show of course and I'm not sure many have discussed how good a hand each of these show and how it may change when the 3M is pre-emptive.

[PhilKing]

Your database looks pretty useful - is it your own creation or is it freely available?

Also, I'm wondering if its search facility is sophisticated enough to differentiate between 3M being pre-emptive versus invitational? The weakness of the first 2 hands (Wolpert & Jassem) makes me wonder if the 3♠ raises were actually systemically invitational.

 

The 1♥ - 3♥ sequence is a bit different, since we have an opportunity to double, cue and bid 3S mostly below game level, so there's less pressure. Partnerships need to agree what these bids show of course and I'm not sure many have discussed how good a hand each of these show and how it may change when the 3M is pre-emptive.

 

The database is not freely available. Anyway, it contains fewer than 30000 deals, so it's not really large enough to examine auctions like this. This database will not grow much, since compromising the quality of play becomes an issue, but I might make a second one including weaker events to get 100k+ hands to examine more obscure situations.

 

I just looked at the equivalent heart auctions to see if there was a single instance of getting to 3NT.

 

And sorry - the Wolpert auction was against a limit raise. The second opposite a semi-pre raise, I think. The fact is, preemptive raises are not that common in championship play - they are more common amongst decent young tournament players. I could only find a handfull of genuinely weak raises, and 3NT was never in the frame.

[kgr]

...[Question: how to get it to show a ? under West's 2nd bid]

[hv=pc=n&w=st8hkj2dk863ckt76&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1sp3s(Pre-emptive)dp?]133|200[/hv]

Enter the hand with the hand diagram and then manually add the '?' at the end of the bidding:

 

hv=pc=n&w=st8hkj2dk863ckt76&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1sp3s(Pre-emptive)dp?]133|200[/hv]

[dake50]

Do I assume ALL shapes are packed into partner's double? Or did he have some shapes shown with his 4C,4D (non-leaping Michaels, eg.)

I play a particular "Defense Against Opponents' Preempts", DAPO. Thus partner's double denies a 2-suiter, denies 6xH, by a process of elimination, he has bal without a S-stop, a 3-suiter with 4+H, or a 1-suiter strong enough to go 5C,5D,5H over their likely 4S and/or my likely response. Then I try 4C.

[phil_20686]

I think the only real choices are 4N and Pass. If you bid 4m its so easy to play there when 5m had play in the other minor. Its easy to imagine partner holding 14(35).

 

Regards the law. On a given deal total tricks is within one trick of the Law total only like 60% of the time. You can easily have hands with two eight card fits where neither team can make 2x.

 

I like to pass these in general. If you are not afraid to concede some double partscores you do tend to pick up some good results. I would say here that partner rates to have a pretty good hand if he has two spades. If he has only one spade then he can have less. If partner has some 2434 15 count you will be well in the money by passing usually, and its hard to imagine making anything. If he is 13(54) you are really going to wish that you had bid.....

 

PhilKing's gadget is sensible.