Safe pass or is it?

[lesh]

[hv=pc=n&s=s4ht3dajt65cajt87&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=4s]133|200|IMPs[/hv]

[MrAce]

I pass

 

This hand just does not have what it takes to bid at that level and colors imho. From the way you wrote I predict bidding was a winner, but I am saying what I would do at the table. There is still pd at the table.. And some of the hands when we have something good at 5 level, bidding now will get pd too excited.

[whereagles]

If you pass, there's a 95% likelihood it ends there, as pard probably has some spade length and won't be too eager on reopening.

 

And so it falls to us to act. It's a guess and my guess is pass, on grounds that maybe my two aces can help setting this.

[Winstonm]

Pass. WTP?

[gszes]

Every hand's a loser and every hand's a winner and the best you can hope for is++++

That song seems to explain why we look for almost any reason to bid no matter the

risk since we hate to let the opps bluff us ====

 

The downside of bidding is simple p with zero count and 4333 we can expect to score

minus 20 bucks opposite their 450 that a LOT of downside. How about when p has an

average hand ??? well rho has around 7 we have 10 so that leaves p with an average

11 1/2 which means overall we rate to go down 1 in 5 of a minor on average while the

opps may make nothing if p has an average hand. that means on average we are probably

talking about losing -150 to -200 assuming we are never x in 5m. This means that for

all of the average hands plus worse we have a whole kit and caboodle of negative

consequences with some of the negative being hughmongous. That's a LOT of risk to

take when you realize it will take close to an opening bid in p hand for us to

make 5m and that there might be a significant chance if p is that good we may not

be able to stop in 5m anyway (life is tough all over).

 

Preempts work do not get snookered into such a poor score there is no coming back

in an IMP match. The gamble at MP is still a poor one but it is only 1 board.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=s4ht3dajt65cajt87&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=4s]133|200|IMPs[/hv]

IMO Pass = 10, Double = 7, 4N = 6. Agree with Mr Ace: action might reap the whirlwind.

[lesh]

Oh well :) Lets call it youth on this one (I am still under 25 so I qualify :) ) I bidded 4nt and needless to say the number of the day -2000 :)

 

I was wondering whether anybody else would do it :)

[Fluffy]

I felt close to 4NT, and certainly would bid them with KQ10 KQ10 instead of AJ10 AJ10

[dake50]

If this hand acts directly, what to do with DK +CK +HA added?

[lesh]

If this hand acts directly, what to do with DK +CK +HA added?

 

We wont be having this thread then since 4NT becomes pretty much straightforward :)

[gszes]

Oh well :) Lets call it youth on this one (I am still under 25 so I qualify :) ) I bidded 4nt and needless to say the number of the day -2000 :)

 

I was wondering whether anybody else would do it :)

 

ouchies -2000 is a pretty darn unlucky number but unfortunately its not like lightning

as you can see it a reasonable amount of the time and at these colors it hurts even

more. Going for numbers like these (or more hopefully collecting them from optimistic

opps) slowly leans one sway from optimism and has a tendency to gravitate one to the

pessimistic side of the force.

 

Don't just learn from mistakes you make--the next time an opp goes for -1100 when they are

unfavorable look at their hand and decide for yourself if that is how you would like to

bid. Best is to try and evaluate the probabilities of success (along with state of the

match and partnership harmony) there is just plain a LOT of difference between systems

partners and SOTM and you get better at calculating as you practice.