Best Move Here

[eagles123]

[hv=pc=n&n=s52hjt8643d9caj75&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=2hd]133|200[/hv]

 

what is best here

 

scoring: imps

 

 

thanks

 

Eagles

[kenberg]

It seems to me that the choices are 5♥ (turn out the lights, everyone guess) or a lead directing 3♣. Some have explicit agreements that 3♣ is lead directing and shows heart support (obviously it doesn't show this much heart support) but even w/o such an agreement the call will presumably result in a club lead if partner is on lead.

 

I go with 3♣.

[ggwhiz]

5♥ against equal or tougher opponents that I think may use the 3♣ lead director to their advantage and 3♣ against opps I am a favorite to beat.

 

I have an agreement with one partner that a 3nt bid is not just a joke but says I want to dive at the 5-level but am concerned that it will be too expensive unless you have a bit extra shape like a 6-4. It's a rare bird but would only get you to the 5-level here if partner has a stiff and it rates to be in clubs.

[Winstonm]

5H. I want to consume the maximum of space and turn this into a guessing game.

[whereagles]

Here's an imaginative bid:

 

4NT

 

If pard happens to show AK or AKQ, opponent's slam is a virtual certainty and you'll know should save in 6/7♥. If pard shows one keycard only, there's a chance he'll have a side trick, in which case you should NOT save.

[BruceZhu]

I would only bid 4♥, because you are vulnerable and you don't want to be any more than down 2 or 3 doubled. Or I would just redouble, because I expect partner to make it.

[ArtK78]

5♥ for me. Let them guess.

[Cyberyeti]

Here's an imaginative bid:

 

4NT

 

If pard happens to show AK or AKQ, opponent's slam is a virtual certainty and you'll know should save in 6/7♥. If pard shows one keycard only, there's a chance he'll have a side trick, in which case you should NOT save.

 

So partner shows 2+Q and you sac 6♥ ovver RHO's 5♠

 

Unfortunately he had xx, KQ10xxx, A108x, 10, you save in 6♥ only to find you were -2 and 5♠ was going flying on the crossruff or -1 more slowly.

 

There are hands where blackwood will be useful, this isn't one of them.

[helene_t]

Here's an imaginative bid:

 

4NT

I prefer 4♣. The advantage is that if partner forgets Gerber, at least we will get a club lead.

[mikeh]

These are hands on which there is no 'right' or 'best' answer in isolation.

 

The hand is posted in the I/A forum which suggests the opps are likely I/A, in which case one has a better chance of creating confusion than if one were playing against experts, who tend to think differently and are usually able to brush aside psychic bidding.

 

At the table, then, I might fool around to create problems for less-experienced players. However: I would normally not do this because I rate to beat them anyway, and when an expert jerks around an I/A that can create bad feelings. I would do it against players with whom I have a friendly relationship, and who I know to be trying to improve, since we can and likely would discuss their options later.

 

Against anyone else, I make the pragmatic bid of 5♥.

 

Bidding clubs for the lead really works only when partner has a stiff. Since slam their way may depend on picking up the club J, I don't want a club lead otherwise, and he may lead it anyway when he has it.

 

In addition, while they probably belong in spades, any club bid makes bidding diamonds easier for them. Maybe RHO has a one suited spade double and LHO has enough to chirp diamonds over any number of clubs but has to pass 5♥.

 

Meanwhile, I think that 5♥ is a goldilocks bid: it is just right. 4♥ is too little, and 6♥ too much...they will almost always humourlessly double and collect 800 and while that might be good, it also might well be bad. Since I would be happy to defend 5♠ opposite most hands partner has, I want to make the bid that maximizes that chance, while also maximizing the opportunity for the opps to misguess.

 

There are 2 maxims in play here.

 

When pre-empting, bid the limit NOW. We would never bid 6♥ but we would never defend 4♠ if that's where they voluntarily stop. So bid 5 now

 

When not sure what to do, make the opps have the last guess. You don't know what they can make, and neither do they...so make them guess at as high a level as is prudent, and live with the result.

[gszes]

opps have a game and probably a slam but two considerations

how much do we stand to lose by sacrificing and is it worth it:)

5h

 

While the opps might be able to make 7 they probably cannot go

higher than 6 of anything due to the presence of the club A. So

it seems reasonable to assume the opps max will be around 1400 that

means our sacrifice can be around 1400 and we might expect to break

even (which makes the sacrifice no good since opps bidding slam is

not 100%). So what is a reasonable compromise?? if the opps bid a slam

that is doomed to fail and we sac - 1100 that's a pretty darn big loss

while our gain of about 300 (when they make) is sort of tiny by

comparison (ie we need to be right around 80% of the time).

 

It seems we should not really be willing to go down more than 800

so 5h taking up as much space as possible would seem to be the way to go.

Preempts work why not use them when we can. I will say that I would make

a 5c bid (not expecting that to go down more than 8 undoubled) if it did

not have some other meaning in our system. 3c just makes it far too easy

for the opps to get in at a low level when we know they have at least game.

[neilkaz]

Hopefully my 5♥ bid will force the opps to take the last misguess.

[lrussell]

5♣ lead directing and taking up space.

[Fluffy]

If you bid 3♥ they are going to missevaluate their shortness, that might be a good move with slow tricks on 2 side suits as opponents will often go too high to find they had less shape than expected.

 

However we have not enough evidence that they can't make anything, and we'd rather see them in game than slam. Giving them a free 4♥ cuebid is a big msitake.

 

Bidding 4♥ puts LHO under pressure, and he will often bid game over it. And RHO knows partner is under pressure, and will be reluctant to hang partner for making a free bid. This is thebest bid against I/A in my opinion, and might even work against better opponents. 5♥ is the normal bid against experts.

[PhilKing]

I like 4♥. You want to catch lefty with a heavy 4♠ or 5♦ bid. Jumping to Five is too likely to push them into slam, either because he stretches to bid 6♦, or because 5♠ gets raised.

 

For sure, slam is not always making, but I would rather just defend game. I am not intending to sacrifice over 4♠.

[eagles123]

thanks all

[whereagles]

So partner shows 2+Q and you sac 6♥ ovver RHO's 5♠

 

Unfortunately he had xx, KQ10xxx, A108x, 10, you save in 6♥ only to find you were -2 and 5♠ was going flying on the crossruff or -1 more slowly.

 

There are hands where blackwood will be useful, this isn't one of them.

 

That only happens to you, Karapet. Since I'm a lucky Hog, I'll find pard with ♥AKQ instead :)

[mycroft]

4♥ if you think they can make 6 (and I'm absolutely passing 4♠!); 5♥ otherwise.

 

I'm a strong believer in "bid to the level you want them to play at if they pull if at all possible". So it's a question if I think I'd rather have them in 4♠ than 6 (obviously, I'll want them in 5, but the 5 jump is much more likely to lead to 6♠ either direct or after 5♠ than the 4 jump).