Is It Worth Exploring Grand

[eagles123]

I had this hand come up on BBO earlier. Partner a random but appears strong.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sk5hdakqt9752c874&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1n(15-17)p]133|200[/hv]

 

 

I wasn't sure what to do here: We were playing 4 way transfers so I could've transfered and bid exclusion but I thought it was too risky with my Kx spade holding. Therefore I simply bid 6D thinking the risk of having the contract wrongsided was too great vs the gain of possibly finding a grand.

 

Obviously there was the risk of 2 quick club losers.

 

 

Is there any scientific way to bid the hand!!

 

Thanks

 

Eagles

[ahydra]

What's 3D? If natural, slam interest, forcing, then one can follow up with exclusion without having to worry about the SK being wrong-sided.

 

ahydra

[broze]

Also if 3♦ is the super-accept when you bid 2N, p is unlikely to bid that so you needn't worry about wrongsiding.

[Zelandakh]

I play a 3♦ response as natural and slammy but with modofied follow-ups - 3♥ = decline slam try; 3♠ = accept slam try and no spade control; 3NT = accept slam try, spade control, no heart control; 4♣ = accept slam try, major suit controls, no club control; others = accept slam try and controls in all side suits. Playing 4 suit transfers the usual continuations are to show shortage after the transfer. That would be the scientific start for the agreed system. Of course bidding it the way you did gave you the maximum chance of making 6 if there were 2 cashers in clubs. Opposite a random this seems like a sensible way of proceding to me - the chances of getting all the way to 7 without a misunderstanding are probably not high.

[Cyberyeti]

I play a 3♦ response as natural and slammy but with modofied follow-ups - 3♥ = decline slam try; 3♠ = accept slam try and no spade control; 3NT = accept slam try, spade control, no heart control; 4♣ = accept slam try, major suit controls, no club control; others = accept slam try and controls in all side suits. Playing 4 suit transfers the usual continuations are to show shortage after the transfer. That would be the scientific start for the agreed system. Of course bidding it the way you did gave you the maximum chance of making 6 if there were 2 cashers in clubs. Opposite a random this seems like a sensible way of proceding to me - the chances of getting all the way to 7 without a misunderstanding are probably not high.

 

Too much science can be a disaster in this sort of auction, give partner AQJ, AKQx, xxx, xxx and it's entirely possible no game even makes, but 6 or even 7♦ may make if you don't pinpoint the lead.

 

I'd be inclined to gerber and bid 6 opposite 2 aces, 7 opposite 3, you'd be unlucky for 7 to be worse than a finesse opposite 3 although it can happen particularly if partner has Q♥ without the J, it's quite likely to be cold - any K or Q♠, Q♣ or J♠ puts it on a finesse.

[monikrazy]

6D may end up being best bid on balance because it helps us avoid a killer club lead sometimes.

 

 

Transfer with 2N then 4H would show shortness. Partner should be able to place the final contract or keycard from there. If partner super accepts with 3C we can begin cue-bidding immediately and have plenty of time to space to check for club stops.

[FM75]

It is "scientific" IMO, to consider what is the worst 15 partner could have. If he had that, what are the odds that opener will find the opening lead? 16 is slightly above the average 15-17 opening hand. With 16, what is probable, etc.?

 

Could a partnership agreement leave you short of a cold slam? Hard to assess this, but it certainly depends on the depth and quality of the agreement.

 

Finally, of course, what is the form of scoring? How strong are the opponents? If duplicate, how strong is the field?

 

 

 

[eagles123]

thanks folks,

 

as a side partner had this decision

 

[hv=pc=n&n=sq8hakdj843cak932&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1np6dp]133|200[/hv]

 

would you raise?

 

thanks,

 

Eagles

[PhilKing]

I'm not worried about a spade lead - clubs worry me more.

 

If we are going to abandon science the answer is to bid 2NT (showing diamonds) followed by exclusion RKCB in clubs. Since we are punting slam anyway, we may as well stop the lead.

[Cyberyeti]

thanks folks,

 

as a side partner had this decision

 

[hv=pc=n&n=sq8hakdj843cak932&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1np6dp]133|200[/hv]

 

would you raise?

 

thanks,

 

Eagles

 

No, you can't guarantee partner has A♠, although you may well make 7 on a non spade lead unless somebody has 5 clubs

[Antrax]

If my partner bids slam off AK of trumps, I'm going to assume he has a lot of extras (and looking at ♣AK, a club void).

[edit]

Then again, he didn't, so my post makes no sense. See Zel below.

[Zelandakh]

If my partner bids slam off AK of trumps

Trumps are diamonds not hearts. Perhaps they are sitting over there with ♠KJT9 ♥- ♦AKQT97652 ♣- and were either scared of a misunderstanding or thought they had no chance of finding out what they needed to know. Or perhaps just missing a trump honour - ♠AKJT9 ♥- ♦KQT97652 ♣-. Who knows? Surely partner knows what they have in their hand better than I do.

[Antrax]

Thanks for the correction - I invented a new hand which I found more interesting :)

[whereagles]

raise 6D?? ofc not

[neilkaz]

raise 6D?? ofc not

We agree..just pass 6♦ as your hand is defined and constrained by the opening 1NT bid anyhow and you could be off the ace of ♠. Partner's blast to 6♦ is hoping to make and hoping to not give away much info.

[Trinidad]

I once played with a pick up partner from the same bridgeclub.

 

She opened 2NT. We didn't have detailed agreements, so with my nice distributional diamond hand I simply bid 6♦. Then came the words that turned a top into a bottom... "I think I have to alert that. Rik plays so many conventions, so this must be a transfer."

 

Rik

[Fluffy]

The way to explore the hand is minor suit transfer followed by 3♥

 

1NT-3♣

3♦-3♥ (heart shortness, normally singleton)

 

Over this partner will have to decide between 3NT and 3 spades, his hand is good, but ♥AK is too much to bypass 3NT IMO.

 

3NT-4♥ (now a sure heart void slam try)

5♣-6♦ (5♣ denies spade control)

 

 

With AK opposite a void opener might also decide to bid 4NT sing off instead of 5♣, but he has a maximum with 4 card support I don't think he should do that. AK hearts is much better than KQJx

[Mbodell]

would you raise?

 

I wouldn't usually just because you so rarely need to bid grands. However, I am sympathetic to it. How much more can partner need from you when you have Jxxx of their trump suit (they likely have, say, AKQxxxx) and a side AKxxx, AK and Qx. I mean they are very likely to be void in clubs, I'd think, since the jump does sort of imply a void and our length there seems to make it likely. But something like AKx Qxx AKQxxxx - Seems pretty reasonable as does as little as Axx Qxx AKTxxxxx.

[Cascade]

I'm not worried about a spade lead - clubs worry me more.

 

If we are going to abandon science the answer is to bid 2NT (showing diamonds) followed by exclusion RKCB in clubs. Since we are punting slam anyway, we may as well stop the lead.

 

Indeed. I did some simulations and partner had Kx... or KJ... in clubs about twice as often as no fitting spade honour. A club lead might also be bad when partner has AQ.

 

Not sure how to estimate the upside of 6D in not highlighting a club lead. And of course 6D loses an intelligent investigation of a grand - although that might be difficult in a non-regular partnership.

 

Edit: My second larger simulation wasn't so convincing.

[Cascade]

thanks folks,

 

as a side partner had this decision

 

[hv=pc=n&n=sq8hakdj843cak932&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1np6dp]133|200[/hv]

 

would you raise?

 

thanks,

 

Eagles

 

Never. Partners stretch on this auction. Maybe some luck was needed if you were minimum now that you are maximum it is cold rather than needing that luck.

[mikeh]

The way to explore the hand is minor suit transfer followed by 3♥

 

1NT-3♣

3♦-3♥ (heart shortness, normally singleton)

 

Over this partner will have to decide between 3NT and 3 spades, his hand is good, but ♥AK is too much to bypass 3NT IMO.

 

3NT-4♥ (now a sure heart void slam try)

5♣-6♦ (5♣ denies spade control)

 

 

With AK opposite a void opener might also decide to bid 4NT sing off instead of 5♣, but he has a maximum with 4 card support I don't think he should do that. AK hearts is much better than KQJx

I was with you 100% until 4♥.

 

Playing with a random partner, no matter how strong, makes this very dangerous. It isn't enough that he or she 'knows' that this is a heart void...he or she must be convinced that you also know this, and that you haven't just figured out a way to show a 5=6 red hand.

 

Yes, that is not how we'd bid a 5=6 hand, but our partner doesn't know that.

 

I would bid as you did to 3N and then bid 4♦. I don't think that any strong random partner would think that I was running from 3N after bidding 3♥ so I am comfortable that I am slamming. Over 4♥, I will bid 4♠ and now partner can bid 5♣ and I bid 5♥ to allow for a 5♠ cue. Were he to do that, and here he wouldn't, I would bid 5N....asking if he has anything to show that he hasn't already. Thus with the magic Axx Axx xxx AKxx, he can bid 5♣ and I can count 13 tricks.

[gszes]

The way to explore the hand is minor suit transfer followed by 3♥

 

1NT-3♣

3♦-3♥ (heart shortness, normally singleton)

 

Over this partner will have to decide between 3NT and 3 spades, his hand is good, but ♥AK is too much to bypass 3NT IMO.

 

3NT-4♥ (now a sure heart void slam try)

5♣-6♦ (5♣ denies spade control)

 

 

With AK opposite a void opener might also decide to bid 4NT sing off instead of 5♣, but he has a maximum with 4 card support I don't think he should do that. AK hearts is much better than KQJx

 

I would start the same way and become wayyyyy more excited if p cannot bid

3n. 1n 3c 3d 3h 3n and since I have no clue how much "waste" there is in

the heart suit I will give up on a grand but still give one more small slam

try with 4d (which will deny a club control) and let opener decide how good

their hand is for slam purposes (they would bid 4n to sign off else cue bid.

I admit if p bids 4n I will pass but have this gut wrenching feeling 5d is

safer:)))))))))))))))))))))))

 

PART 2

the dia J is a waste and the spade Q is anything but a grand worthy card so this

hand is not a maximum by any means convert the spade Q and dia J into the (spa

or dia) king however and I will raise to 7 and if its wrong tell p to invite next

time vs blast:)))))))))))))))) with 4 diamonds I would also consider the dia Q

(if we held it) to be a wasted card.

 

PASS