A trick one guess

[PhilKing]

Because AJxx or AJ9x are holdings where low may gain over the queen, and West will probably not have those. Anyway we are told (admittedly hearsay) that Meckstroth played the queen because he was worried about a potential diamond switch, although you thought East would never find one when it was right.

 

But he probably won't have AKxx either, so why is this relevant?

 

And please show layouts on which a competent East will switch.

[gszes]

Sighhhhhhhh my ability to think deeply into a hand has obviously

dwindled as time goes on. I would have risen with the Q with little

to no thought since I had a 25% (and I personally think it is higher

than 25) chance of making 3n right then and there while ducking would

probably result in losing at least 2 clubs and 3d since rho has a

strong chance of having longish diamonds especially if lho has 5 clubs

since rho is then (probably) short in hearts and clubs making a dia

switch a lot easier. Ducking even if it is "right" due to the lie

of the cards on this hand will almost always get a switch and a

dia has to be a heavy favorite looking at that dummy.

[gnasher]

Not so. Assuming the points are distributed, say, 15-10, the most likely distribution is Kx(x) on your right and Qx(x)on your left. Less likely is Qx(x) on your left and Kx(x) on your right. Coming in third is KQx on your right with xx(x) on your left, while fourth is KQx on your left with xx(x) on your right. Then we have the ones with partner having the K or Q of the suit. You may still need to find partner with an entry, and you know that West will know that any major suit entry which partner has may be neutralised. If West has the ace of diamonds, then he will not expect his partner to have an entry.

 

Consider these two situations:

(1) LHO has 13 HCP and RHO has 13 HCP

(2) LHO has 10 HCP and RHO has 16 HCP

If which of these two situations am I more likely to find Hxx on my left and Hxx on my right?

 

Once you have worked out that the answer to that is (1), tell me why you wrote "especially with a strong NT on their right" in post no 15

[lamford]

tell me why you wrote "especially with a strong NT on their right"

Because the lead from AJ9x(x) can both cost a trick when the honours are split, and can give declarer his ninth trick when he has the king, and with a strong NT on his right, declarer is more likely to have the king. The combined chance of costing a trick is clearly greater with a strong NT on his right. "Split honours" is only part of the downside of leading the suit.

 

And I have got bored with this thread and will not post on it again. I agree with Meckstroth and wank, and disagree with gnasher and PhilKing. And I do not have the time or inclination to keep posting.

[PhilKing]

I have to say that's a pretty lame reply.