Evaluation: how many NT?

[rhm]

Kit Woolsey would certainly not bid 2NT arguing that reaching the right strain is more important than making fine distinctions of your strength, thereby robbing you of the room to find out the right strain.

That partner could be minimum and game might have little play does not bother him and it is not so rare that such games make anyway.

In my opinion this hand is not suitable for an immediate 3NT with mainly first round controls outside of spades.

If partner has something like ♠AKxxx ♥Qx ♦KQxxx ♣x I am rather in 6♦ than in 3NT.

A hand lacking aces is usually suitable for an immediate 3NT, since such hands tend to be a disappointment in high level suit contracts.

Accordingly I am not convinced partner can and should correct an immediate 3NT to 4♠ just because he has six of them.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[whereagles]

Does Kit ever bid 1M-3NT then? Perhaps he plays it as some sort of raise eheh

[Fluffy]

1♠-2NT

2♦-2♥ (minimum with a minor, at most 5 spades)

2♠-2NT (exactly 4 clubs)

3♥-?? (exactly 5314)

 

Only Andy cared to answer what he would bid once you find partner is 5314

[rhm]

You can exit the relays when you want to jump to game.

 

1♠-2NT

2♦-2♥ (minimum with a minor, at most 5 spades)

2♠-2NT (exactly 4 clubs)

3♥-?? (exactly 5314)

 

What game would you bid?, at which point?

 

Only Andy cared to answer what he would bid once you find partner is 5314

Maybe because 1♠-2NT-2♦ is an unusual sequence :P

 

Having started to relay, I'd go all the way. Then I'd bid 5♣, playing him for something like AJxxx Kxx x KJxx. I wouldn't expect to be right that often, though (and I don't like the methods much).

I agree I would not expect Andy to be right here often.

While I respect Andy's judgment, in this case Andy is betting to make 3 tricks more in clubs than notrumps.

I bet against.

In notrumps I likely have a diamond stop and a trick if they lead them and in about one third of the time partner's stiff will be a honor card.

If clubs do not break my chances in 5♣ will be poor.

If partners minors were reversed there would be more reason to go for the minor suit game.

 

I checked this with a simulation (1000 deals) with the specification exactly as given here:

 

Result:

 

3NT made double dummy on 586 delas =58.6%

Average number of tricks: 8.7

 

5♣ made double dummy on 340 deals = 34%

Average number of tricks 10.1

 

When 5♣ makes 3NT will make 88% of the time

However, when 3NT makes 5♣ will make only 51% of the time.

 

Single dummy I would expect the result to be even more in favor of 3NT.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[whereagles]

impressive work there, Rainer

 

what's more, it proves bob is right.. "when in doubt, bid 3NT" :)