What is your plan?

[xx1943]

[hv=pc=n&s=s32ha8765dat7ckq2&n=sakt95hj42dk42cj6&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p1sp2hp2sp3nppp]266|200|West leads Diamond 9, East contributes the Q, while you played low from table. The ♦9 is alerted as coded 9/10.[/hv]

 

Sure, 4 hearts is the better contract and partner is to blame for his bidding.

But you should concentrate making this 3NT. Partner will not like your complaints about his bidding if you lose a makeable contract.

 

You count 5 sure tricks and expect 2 more from Clubs after the Ace is out.

1. 
    
   
2. Where (hearts or spades) do you look for the missing 2 tricks?
   
3. If you develop hearts, how do you handle the suit?
   
4. If you develop spades, how do you handle the suit?
   
5. What are the odds to win this contract?
   

[eagles123]

Duck a spade?

 

Low heart to the J could work if KQ are both onside but that doesn't seem like great odds compared to 3-3 spades?

 

Eagles

 

edit: double finesse in spades probably better?

[whereagles]

hmmm... I guess I'd try a ♦A, spade finesse, heart back (RHO can't play diamonds) for the ace. Spade finesse again, cash spades, club back. This line goes down if they duck clubs once, but I can't see anything better because going for clubs first seems worse. Even shifting to hearts after cashing a club only nets 8 tricks.

[inquiry]

[hv=pc=n&s=s32ha8765dat7ckq2&n=sakt95hj42dk42cj6&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p1sp2hp2sp3nppp]266|200|West leads Diamond 9, East contributes the Q, while you played low from table. The ♦9 is alerted as coded 9/10.[/hv]

 

Sure, 4 hearts is the better contract and partner is to blame for his bidding.

But you should concentrate making this 3NT. Partner will not like your complaints about his bidding if you lose a makeable contract.

 

You count 5 sure tricks and expect 2 more from Clubs after the Ace is out.

1. Where (hearts or spades) do you look for the missing 2 tricks?
2. If you develop hearts, how do you handle the suit?
3. If you develop spades, how do you handle the suit?
4. What are the odds to win this contract?
   

If 2♥ was game force, I would not be so quick to place fault at partner's feet.

 

If I am going to develop hearts I play a heart towards dummy. If I am going to play spades, it is close between banging the ♠AK and taking the double finesse. If diamonds split badly and East has the ♣A he might win first spade and switch to a heart, West gets in and leads a diamond, and they might come to 5 tricks (1H, 3D. 1C before I can come to 9.). Anyway, I guess I will bang the ♠AK and if nothing funny happens continue spades.

 

I don't know what the odds of making are

 

 

[blackshoe]

"Coded 9/10" is inadequate disclosure.

[SteveMoe]

Pavlicek offers a great tool for analyzing these situations at: http://www.rpbridge.net/cgi-bin/xcc1.pl

 

Playing ♠ by finessing twice yields 4 tricks 65.6% of the time.

Playing ♥ to split 3-2 yields 3♥ tricks 67.8% of the time.

Playing ♠ top down yields 4 tricks 57.8% of the time.

 

While we all want to take the best odds play, ♥ require we give up control twice, and ♠ only once. If ♦ are 5-3 they might manage to have RHO win the 1st ♥ and lead a ♦ through the ♦10. They'll win the race to 5 tricks: 3♦ plus 1♥ plus 1♣ and maybe more...

 

I'll finesse ♠ twice.

[shyams]

If I am going to develop hearts I play a heart towards dummy. If I am going to play spades, it is close between banging the ♠AK and taking the double finesse. If diamonds split badly and East has the ♣A he might win first spade and switch to a heart, West gets in and leads a diamond, and they might come to 5 tricks (1H, 3D. 1C before I can come to 9.). Anyway, I guess I will bang the ♠AK and if nothing funny happens continue spades.

 

I don't know what the odds of making are

Ben, the spade double finesse might still be best. If East switches to a low heart upon winning the first spade, we can go straight up with the ♥A and repeat the spade finesse.

 

When we eventually play clubs, defenders can cash out two hearts but their setting trick in diamonds is not going to materialise.

[xx1943]

Pavlicek offers a great tool for analyzing these situations at: http://www.rpbridge.net/cgi-bin/xcc1.pl

 

Playing ♠ by finessing twice yields 4 tricks 65.6% of the time.

Playing ♥ to split 3-2 yields 3♥ tricks 67.8% of the time.

Playing ♠ top down yields 4 tricks 57.8% of the time.

 

While we all want to take the best odds play, ♥ require we give up control twice, and ♠ only once. If ♦ are 5-3 they might manage to have RHO win the 1st ♥ and lead a ♦ through the ♦10. They'll win the race to 5 tricks: 3♦ plus 1♥ plus 1♣ and maybe more...

 

I'll finesse ♠ twice.

 

You are rite, Pavlicek's tool is great, but the odds for at least 4 tricks with double finesse are 76% and with banging down A and K are 69,44%

 

Spade double finesse is the correct play imho.

[inquiry]

I view this problem as a lot more complicated than those of you who just say double finesse in spades... Let's just start with the claimed percentages to gain two spade tricks.....

 

Pavlicek offers a great tool for analyzing these situations at: http://www.rpbridge....cgi-bin/xcc1.pl

 

Playing ♠ by finessing twice yields 4 tricks 65.6% of the time

Playing ♥ to split 3-2 yields 3♥ tricks 67.8% of the time.

Playing ♠ top down yields 4 tricks 57.8% of the time.

 

You are rite, Pavlicek's tool is great, but the odds for at least 4 tricks with double finesse are 76% and with banging down A and K are 69,44%

 

Spade double finesse is the correct play imho.

 

First off, are the odds for 4 tricks in spades 65.6% as Steve claimed, or 76% as xx1943 claimed. I will categorically say they are both wrong. First, how did they get their numbers?

 

Steve used the tool he quoted, but incorrectly. To start off he has the spade suit splitting 3-2 67% of the time. I will say the 3-2 split will occur zero percent of the time because you are missing six spades, not five. His other numbers are also wrong (no doubt in part because he has given them too few spades).

 

How about xx1943's numbers. He claims the double finesse will yield two extra tricks 76% of the time. Wow, an impressive number, is it right? No, and hell no. Why no? He used the "tool" with 13 vacant spaces in each hand. The opening lead marked East with ♦QJ (and West with nothing of value), so the vacant space should have been West with 13 and East with 11. That would change his numbers from 76% (well 76.6 and 59.5) to 80.35 and 59.2%. These are even better than his original numbers, so why hell no?

 

WHY HELL NO? The first reason why hell no is that just because the first finesse wins, doesn't mean you are going to gain TWO tricks in spades. The obvious one is when the WEST holds QJ876 or similar. He will pop up with the Queen or Jack on the second round, so you gain one spade trick, but not a second one. A second why hell no is what if East has Qx or Jx doubleton and ducked the first spade allowing the nine to win? How do you play, do you cross to your hand (and if so how). Let's say you play club to King and lead a second spade, when that loses to the doubleton queen or jack, back comes a club to the Ace and then a diamond (or a heart which if you duck and back comes a diamond). You can't unravel your tricks. What if after the ♠9 wins, you then bang your ♠AK. That works if East ducked spade Qx of Jx, but fails if he had xx.

 

Can east ducking the spade Ten cause problems when he has ♠Qxx or even ♠QJx? Probably not, but what if when your ♠9 wins, you play ♣J then club to King-Ace and West returns a diamond? You win the Ace in dummy, cross to the heart Ace, cash your club (you might need that trick) and lead a spade up... ouch... you could end up winning 1S, 2C, 2D, 1H for down three (you might wonder why West didn't split his spades on the second round now.

 

So no. Double finesse in spades will not gain two extra tricks anywhere near 76 (or 80) percent of the time, and the hand is far from over rather or not the first spade finesse wins. Nor is cashing one top spade as bad as the numbers xx1943 implied. If East drops the ♠Q or ♠J under the ace, you have a safety type play for at least one extra spade trick of finessing on the second round. If both follow you are home rather or not East wins the spade or not.

 

These and other complications make me unsure how to proceed, especially against the defenders capable of ducking the first spade hook with Qx or Jx. If I needed only ONE EXTRA SPADE, the spade hook is a no brainer that would work 80% of the time (based on current vacant space data), but I need two extra tricks plus have to unravel my club suit.

 

Therefore, I am really still looking for some one to come up with the best line, and explain how they play... for instance if the spade hook wins, and if the spade hook doesn't win, assuming best defense (which might very well be to duck with Qx or Jx offside). I don't buy the take the double hook for an answer, which is why I went with clear spades with AK and then a third. At least I can't be "tricked" by a duck from the Jx of Qx....

[kenberg]

I agree that we cannot go with a priori odds here. But I have a question. E really played the Q, not the J at T1? Usually the play of the Q in this situation denies the Jack, and it certainly would discourage W from leading the suit again. I was trying to figure what to make of this. Seems to me the Q is the sort of play you make from QJxx if you want partner to shift to a different suit. But I see on reason at all that E would want this. So I am back to the question: E really played the Q?

 

Maybe the 9 from J98x(x)? Could be, I don't thinking coded 9/10 stops him from leadng the 9 here if he thinks it is the right card. It matters, since if this is the holding I don't much want E to come in, making it better, perhaps, to play spades as AKT. . E, with Qxx will pitch his Q under the King if he did start with J98x in diamonds but if he started with, say, Qxxx then I can set up four spades w/o letting E on lead.

 

 

I'm thinking I might go with this.