Looks easy

[gnasher]

[hv=pc=n&s=shk52daq9762cajt9&n=sq543haqt3d3ckq86&d=w&v=e&b=16&a=p1h(4+)p2d(D%20or%20bal%2C%20FG)p2n(Only%204%20H)p3c(Nat%20with%20D)p4cp4d(Cue)p4h(Cue)p4s(Cue)dp(No%20S%20control)p4n(RKCB)p5s(2+Q)p5n(Kings)p6c(None)ppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Lead: ♥8 (English style 2nd/4th, so could be J98, 98x, 98xx, 8x or 8.)

[rhm]

T1:♥A

T2:♦A

T3:♦ruff high

T4:♥K

T5:♦ ruff high. If diamonds are established claim 13 tricks,

If not:

T7: ♣A

T8:♦ ruff

T9: ♥Q and hope that either

 

a) somebody ruffs or

b) ♥J comes down, in which case you continue with the ♥10

 

If neither a) or b)

 

T10: ♠ ruff and hope trumps to be 3-2

 

This wins almost always if diamond can be established with 2 ruffs (a bit better than 50%). Even if hearts are 5-1 you loose only if somebody has a singleton in both hearts and clubs.

It rarely wins if diamonds are worse than 4-2.

If diamonds are 4-2 and the king is in the long hand you need trumps 3-2 or some luck in the heart department. (hearts 3-3 or ♥J dropping or that an opponent mistakenly ruffs the ♥Q)

If hearts are 5-1 (but trumps 3-2) you need that the heart ruff is taken by the hand with three trumps, which is quite likely, since West with 6♠-1♥-4♦-2♣ might have bid at some stage,

Playing on cross ruff lines is clearly worse since you need hearts 3-3. In this case the above line almost always wins too (except diamonds 5-1).

Taking an immediate diamond finesse is an interesting alternative, but if it loses and a spade comes back, you are in worse shape.

 

Rainer Herrmann