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Bad_Wolf

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I think I'm using the same database as PhilKing.

It was an obvious pass before I ran simulations, now it's an obvious 4.

 

Partner has 3-4 spades and a singleton/void heart a surprising amount of the time and we can often make 4 opposite a low doubleton or honor singleton. When we can't make 4 they are almost always making 4.

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[hv=pc=n&s=sakt963h652d94ckq&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=4hpp]133|200|MPS[/hv]
IMO 4 = 10, Pass = 9, Double = 4. A toss-up. Wank may well be right, taking into account partner's silence and your 3 s
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Did these databases eliminate all hands with which CHO doubles in direct seat?

 

My simtuition went with Wank, but my expectation of the forum replies went with Phil.

 

LOL at myself, I just noticed my tagline.

 

The database shows what happened when the auciton actually occurred at the table.

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4s

 

For ONCE I actually have a suit with quality. Having trump suit

quality is the number one way to keep from getting x. This fact alone

virtually eliminates any chance of going for 800 and thus reducing

risk significantly.

 

The second factor in favor of a 4s bid is that p rates to have

an average of 9 hcp and if p has that 9 we have a great chance at

making game so on average we will make a vul game. Seems like risk

vs reward favors bidding

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4s

 

For ONCE I actually have a suit with quality. Having trump suit

quality is the number one way to keep from getting x. This fact alone

virtually eliminates any chance of going for 800 and thus reducing

risk significantly.

 

The second factor in favor of a 4s bid is that p rates to have

an average of 9 hcp and if p has that 9 we have a great chance at

making game so on average we will make a vul game. Seems like risk

vs reward favors bidding

I have to agree with your thoughts here.

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I think they can make 4 more often than we can make 4. I hope one can make so I bid 4. If it is 4 making then I hope 4 is a decent dive.

 

Its not all roses though. 4 might be too costly at these colours and we may simply create a problem, for partner, when the opponents compete to 5.

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