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What do you lead ?


MrAce

  

31 members have voted

  1. 1. Your lead ?



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Top heart spot.

 

I am bemused at 3 gf: I don't doubt the description but am having trouble understanding how that is playable...do they use 2 as some form of punt?

 

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that I have talked myself out of the winning, mundane, low spade lead, giving declarer his 8th trick but not his 9th.

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I can understand Mike's reluctance to lead a spade, but I have no such reluctance (rightly or wrongly). I lead the "mundane" low spade.

 

I am also intrigued at the 3 game forcing. I don't recall ever seeing that. What was your opponent's general approach (system)? On this auction, I play 2 as extended new minor forcing. Perhaps they play it as extended new minor less than forcing. :)

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I'm choosing between high and low D - if a S was setting this, P might have found a 1-level overcall.

 

Probably going with AD to avoid blocking the suit/catch doubleton honour/give myself an outside chance of a killing switch if P discourages and I haven't already blown the defence.

 

The GF 3 worries me since if their lower bids would have been artificial, it seems like there might be negative inferences available that we're not informed of. I'm assuming they had an invite of some kind available if they wanted it?

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I'm going to make the stupid lead of the A, on Bird/Anthias grounds... lol.

 

As to 3 being game-forcing, there is school of thought that does this. With an invite you bid 3rd/4th suit and follow-up with support. The meta rule is:

 

"New suit followed by support of opener's 1st suit at the 3-level is GF."

 

It has some advantages, namely simplifying GF auctions. I've been thinking about this switch for a while, but never got around to write down a formal text on it.

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Interesting problem!

Results of simulation with the following contraints:

-W is 12-15hcp with 4-5 hearts, 3+clubs without 5-4/55majors

-E is 11-15hcp, without 3 hearts, without 4spades, without 5diamonds and without 6-4 shape in minors

 

Winning lead:

spade: 329 (low is 329, A is 324)

heart: 165

diamond: 323 (Ace, low is 204)

club: 118

 

So I lead a spade.

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FWIW I play 3 as GF here. This is how it works for me:

 

2 = puppet to 2 (opener bids 2 by default, breaks show outliers)

2 = invitational

2 - GF with values/suit

2NT = bat GF

3 = nat GF

 

after 2-2:

 

2 = GF with spade values/suit

2NT = inv

3 = inv

3 = inv 4-6

 

There is various other exotica, but that is the gist of it.

 

Back to the problem - I lead the diamond ace.

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I can understand Mike's reluctance to lead a spade, but I have no such reluctance (rightly or wrongly). I lead the "mundane" low spade.

 

I am also intrigued at the 3 game forcing. I don't recall ever seeing that. What was your opponent's general approach (system)? On this auction, I play 2 as extended new minor forcing. Perhaps they play it as extended new minor less than forcing. :)

 

Eastern Scientific

 

Richard Pavlicek (Sr) snd Rich Pavlicek (Jr) is your opponents

 

 

 

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In my opinion this is between a small spade and a top heart. Declarer often has 3=1=3=6 and then a heart might be needed. But I will go with a spade.

 

I am seriously considering leading the 10, and I wish I had the guts for it, but I will go with the conventional 3 or 4.

 

Rik

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for MikeH

http://www.rpbridge.net/7g19.htm#13

 

rebid by responder

I was having a memory lapse when I posted originally: in fact, in a partnership I played in the late 1990's we had an entire structure built around using 2 as a punt, with an artificial 2N, and a gf 3 raise :P A vague memory must have existed since I did refer to the 2 punt as the explanation.

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i lead spade.

as I see it there are 2 options here:

1. they have 9 tricks in their 2 suits, in this case spade is better then heart, althogh diamond A is slightly better

2. partner has 1 trick in their suit, in such case if I lead spade I have the best chance to take 3 spades 1 diamond and 1 in partner hand.

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i won't comment as to what i would lead - it's not tricky to get hands right having seen all 4 of them but in general i very rarely lead passively when opps have a 6 card suit which looks like running based on my holding. xx of clubs over is about as bad a holding as it's possible to get.
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i won't comment as to what i would lead - it's not tricky to get hands right having seen all 4 of them but in general i very rarely lead passively when opps have a 6 card suit which looks like running based on my holding. xx of clubs over is about as bad a holding as it's possible to get.

 

Some people led way too agressive if you look at replies (A and T leadshttp://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif

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Some people led way too agressive if you look at replies (A and T leadshttp://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif

Those leads are inspired by the fact that this question was asked.

 

An attacking lead seems normal to me since I expect opps having a running suit, and a small is the normal thing to do. Bringing in 4 + A defeats the contract, hoping for 4 tricks + A is an alternative but looks less appealing to me. Starting passively with a or is probably never right.

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Those leads are inspired by the fact that this question was asked.

 

An attacking lead seems normal to me since I expect opps having a running suit, and a small is the normal thing to do. Bringing in 4 + A defeats the contract, hoping for 4 tricks + A is an alternative but looks less appealing to me. Starting passively with a or is probably never right.

 

I think you and i have different views about "aggressive leads" or in your terms "attacking leads" To me there are 3 kinds of leads;

 

-Normal lead

-Passive lead

-Aggressive lead

 

Aggressive leads are unusual leads for me, such as leading from AQx (A and then Q or starting with Q) in NT is an aggressive lead for me, You do that when you are scared that opponents are likely to make enough tricks in their contract unless we take our tricks first. In this context small lead from ATxx is a normal lead, high lead is passive and A lead would be aggressive (or A)

 

 

If you have seen what a "stopper" looks like in most of

these forum problems a lead of a low spade looks better

and better.

 

You have a good point.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Thinking about this problem again, I really like Phil King's A lead. There are essentially two ways to beat this:

  • Cash 5 tricks
  • Partner has a club stopper, and we can set up four tricks for us.

A seems to give us the best possible shot at the first possibility, and it's hard to construct losing layouts for the second possibility.

I bet bluecalm's simulation would look differently if he specified 6+clubs for opener (which is much closer to the truth of course).

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