Passout with 12HCP

[BillPatch]

When I said that my study used double dummy anlysis I meant that the last 51 cards were played using Jack's double dummy analyser, not the analysis of absolute par. During the record of play we recorded absolute par for the last 80% of the hands, so I will comment on the differences in score. Jack bid to the suit and contract level(partscore, game, slam)over 50% and 90% of the time the side with the absolute par had a plus score.

 

Richard Pavlichek's website has an extensive comparision of results from actual play versus double dummy analysis for ach contract played in top competition. At he part score level declarer underperforms in actual play by .1 of a trick. Since in this analysi the openerer's side played about 60% of the time to the defender's 40 % to create a bias as suggested by Helenne of 2 tricks per 100 hands.

[BillPatch]

Sorry EGR, I made a major misestimate of the amount of 2 1/2 and 3 QT hands. A sample of 150 13 card

hands reveals that for every 100 12 hcp hands 14 2/3 have less than 2 QT; 32, 2 QT; 38 2/3, 2 and 1/2 QT

and 14 2/3, 3 QT. Thus, it appears that on about half of balanced hands with 12 points and a doubleton

can make positive results, even though they fail the rule of 15.

[mike777]

mike777

maximum passes for Jack versus the J2 432 AQT32 KQ2 fourth hand opener.

Q4 AJ76 KJ94 T65 1ST SEAT

AT7 KJ65 974 K87 3RD

K43 AQT98 J5 J95 2ND

QT98 JT KJ75 A94 2ND

AK763 K86 9 8763 1ST

KQ875 J98 9 A875 1ST

A943 AT6 K654 54 2ND

In summarry I believe that Jack will open on any hand with 12 HCP including a K.

 

thanks ya this is a bias in the results. If pard cannot hold any of these hands that may change the overall results I would open all of these and even hands with less hcp and more shape in seats 1, 2,3.

 

That makes me even more likely to follow the rule of 15 in 4th seat.

 

to put all of this in context the lighter you open the more you will pass in 4thseat, the sounder you open then the lighter you can open in 4th seat.