Passout with 12HCP

[kgr]

In 4th seat after 3 passes and with 12HCP and short spades:

Is it best to pass or to bid (or are there other factors that would change this decision, like MPs/IMPs, rest of your system, opps system)?

I thought it is best to open because you probably have the majority of the points, but other players think it is best to pass without the master suit.

 

Example:

(P)-P-(P)-?

 

Jx=xxx=AQTx=KQxx

Jx=xxx=AQTxx=KQx

Jxx=xx=AQTx=KQxx

Jxx=xx=AQTxx=KQx

[TWO4BRIDGE]

I don't know if Rule-of-15 is a good measure.

The first 2 hands count to 14... and the last 2 are just barely 15 .

[Cyberyeti]

Playing a weak NT in 4th helps, means opps have to enter at the 2 level.

[BillPatch]

The first two hands contain 3 flaws--fails rule of 15, doubleton J, and only 5 cards in majors, so I pass. Other two hands have only one flaw, so I open. With J tripleton in hearts instead of J doubleton ♠, I open.

[r_prah]

I would open with all four.

[ArtK78]

There are many factors at play here.

 

The so-called Rule of 15 is that you add your high card points and your spades. If the number is 15 or more, you open. The Rule of 15 was devised at a time when bidders were much less aggressive than they are today.

 

The main question that you should ask is how aggressive is my partner? My partner passed in second seat. Would he open most 11 counts? Would he open with less than that? If the answer to these questions is yes, then you should probably pass this one out. If your partner might pass some 12 counts in second seat, then you should be more inclined to open the bidding.

 

How about your opponents? Your LHO passed in first seat, and your RHO passed in 3rd seat. Do they open with any excuse? Or are they very conservative? If the former, it implies that neither of them has anything close to an opening bid, and the hand may be yours. If they are conservative, opening in 4th seat may lead to their bidding a game! (that may be an exaggeration, but I have seen it happen)

 

None of these hands is an automatic 4th seat opening bid (although the last one is going to be hard to resist). You need to know your customers. I have gotten some great results for passouts on occasion. Sometimes, avoiding a minus score is all you have to do to get a good result.

 

Playing a weak NT in 4th helps, means opps have to enter at the 2 level.

I really do not like playing a weak NT opposite a passed hand. But, as they say, YMMV.

[Cyberyeti]

 

I really do not like playing a weak NT opposite a passed hand. But, as they say, YMMV.

 

In 3rd I see the objection, in 4th they're hardly likely to double, yes you may miss 110 in a 4-4 major suit fit but +90 > passed out

 

It's odds on to be your hand as RHO couldn't even dredge up a 3rd in opener and partner is in the most conservative seat in 2nd.

[BillPatch]

The Rule of 15 was originally 14, as usually in the earlier point count era openers in 2nd seat were sounder. Source ACBL Encclopedia of Bridge, 7th edition.

[kgr]

Thank you all.

Seems like most would follow the rule of 15.

(My partner passed at MP's for a bad score.)

I wonder what the par score of a simulation would be.

[rhm]

Playing a weak NT in 4th helps, means opps have to enter at the 2 level.

I tried this and gave up, when I found out to my disadvantage that nowadays you rarely get a weak notrump in 4th and it goes Pass Pass Pass to you.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[lowerline]

In 4th seat after 3 passes and with 12HCP and short spades:

Is it best to pass or to bid (or are there other factors that would change this decision, like MPs/IMPs, rest of your system, opps system)?

I thought it is best to open because you probably have the majority of the points, but other players think it is best to pass without the master suit.

 

Example:

(P)-P-(P)-?

 

Jx=xxx=AQTx=KQxx

Jx=xxx=AQTxx=KQx

Jxx=xx=AQTx=KQxx

Jxx=xx=AQTxx=KQx

 

I would only pass the first hand because that one is the worst.

 

S.

 

 

 

[Cyberyeti]

I tried this and gave up, when I found out to my disadvantage that nowadays you rarely get a weak notrump in 4th and it goes Pass Pass Pass to you.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

You play in different fields to me then as frequently both opps are balanced and don't bid where I am, I also have a decent number of 200+ penalties where they do bid and partner has an 11 count.

[MrAce]

In 4th seat after 3 passes and with 12HCP and short spades:

Is it best to pass or to bid (or are there other factors that would change this decision, like MPs/IMPs, rest of your system, opps system)?

I thought it is best to open because you probably have the majority of the points, but other players think it is best to pass without both major the master suit. suits

 

FYP

 

 

I am one of those other players, but i would not pass all of those hands in your examples.

 

If i played weak Nt i would probably open all of them, one has to draw the first blood, after all i don't like paying all that money and play 1 less hand than what my money worth for ! http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif

 

 

 

[wank]

ro15 is for marginal openers. this isn't a marginal opener.

[Vampyr]

Seems like most would follow the rule of 15.

 

Er... most of whom?

[steve2005]

I open all 12 hcp hands, I don't care how crappy they are.

 

All these hands are good hands, their only flaw being poor majors.

 

That's doesn't mean you cant make1N, 2 of minor or even 3 of a minor

 

And your defense is good, so you might be able to beat opponents 2 of a major.

 

Rule of 15 applies only when your considering opening light these are full openers.

[ggwhiz]

The rule of 15 makes the first two pass and the rule of 20 makes them all a bid.

 

Bergen put a corollary on the rule of 15 along the lines of "or any hand prepared to compete to the 3-level" but that doesn't fit any of these either.

 

I have tried everything and now tend to open the ones with 3 cards in spades where we may be able to bid 2♠ over their 2♥ competition, forcing them to the 3-level and pass the others. I've settled into the 50% range on these but that includes some big losses to go with some big gains. Don't let 1 hand bother you too much but look for a trend and be satisfied with 50%.

[BillPatch]

Ran a double dummy simulation on Jack to clarify optimal passout strategy including the first two hands from OP. Jack set for IMPS.

Since a sample of 20 showed that hand 1 was clearly IMP and MP positive I weakened it by replacing the diamond 10 with

a 3 to produce a hand as close to breakeven as possible.

 

New hand J2 432 AQ32 KQ32 Opening bid set at 1 diamond versus pass. null hypothesis = no positive effect

51 positive scores/110. MP average 46.4%. net -15imps average -.136imps per board

 

hand 1 x's filled with lowest possible spots J2 432 AQT2 KQ32

30 POSITIVE SCORES/50. MP average 60.0%. net 43 imps gives a positive .86imps per board

 

hand 2 J2 432 AQT32 KQ2

26 positive scores/50. MP average 52.0%. net 15 imps gives a positive .30 imps per board

I let Jack make all the bridge decisions in all simulations except the choice of opening bid.

Opposite hand 2 Jack made 3 negative doubles, made opener bid the three card heart suit and was raised to three--down one

2 diamonds would make 2 each time, would have made results more positive.

[mike777]

"I let Jack make all the bridge decisions in all simulations except the choice of opening bid."

 

OK what max type hands are being passed in seats 1,2,3?

 

what max type hands are being passed when nv?

 

I wondered since I would pass with all of these example hands in 4th seat after pard passed.

[kgr]

Ran a double dummy simulation on Jack to clarify optimal passout strategy including the first two hands from OP. Jack set for IMPS.

Since a sample of 20 showed that hand 1 was clearly IMP and MP positive I weakened it by replacing the diamond 10 with

a 3 to produce a hand as close to breakeven as possible.

 

New hand J2 432 AQ32 KQ32 Opening bid set at 1 diamond versus pass. null hypothesis = no positive effect

51 positive scores/110. MP average 46.4%. net -15imps average -.136imps per board

 

hand 1 x's filled with lowest possible spots J2 432 AQT2 KQ32

30 POSITIVE SCORES/50. MP average 60.0%. net 43 imps gives a positive .86imps per board

 

hand 2 J2 432 AQT32 KQ2

26 positive scores/50. MP average 52.0%. net 15 imps gives a positive .30 imps per board

I let Jack make all the bridge decisions in all simulations except the choice of opening bid.

Opposite hand 2 Jack made 3 negative doubles, made opener bid the three card heart suit and was raised to three--down one

2 diamonds would make 2 each time, would have made results more positive.

Thanks a lot!

With DT all the example hands should be opened...and probably w/o DT, but with average intermediates any of these hands should be opened?

The conclusion is that the rule of 15 is letting you pass too often with this hand...and we would do better to open any hand with 12HCP?

[helene_t]

Double dummy analysis, if I understand it correctly, means that you should pass out whenever PAR is negative?

 

In practice the expected score can be negative even if expected par is positive. This is because opps have more freedom in the bidding than you have since they are both passed hand. You are sometimes handicapped by not being able to show your shape without overstating your values. And sometimes partner will make a limit bid with his 11 count and you will be too high even if your PAR is positive.

 

So I think you should be a bid more conservative than DD simulations suggest.

 

This is probably less of an issue with balanced hands than with unbalanced ones.

[lexlogan]

I recall some time ago in these forums someone cited a study that showed it was better to open a 10-point hand with zero spades (a Goren 13 count) in fourth seat than a 10 point 5332 hand with 5 spades (Goren 11 count.) The Goren count was a better guide than the Rule of 15; counting a spade as a point was simply wrong. Unfortunately I can't get BBO's search engine to cooperate to find that discussion but I've completely given up following any rule in fourth seat except: would I open this hand in first seat?

[BillPatch]

mike777

maximum passes for Jack versus the J2 432 AQT32 KQ2 fourth hand opener.

Q4 AJ76 KJ94 T65 1ST SEAT

AT7 KJ65 974 K87 3RD

K43 AQT98 J5 J95 2ND

QT98 JT KJ75 A94 2ND

AK763 K86 9 8763 1ST

KQ875 J98 9 A875 1ST

A943 AT6 K654 54 2ND

In summarry I believe that Jack will open on any hand with 12 HCP including a K.

[BillPatch]

kgr

Your statements about my research are accurate except for your final conclusion. The hands that you provide in your OP were that were superior in overall strength to the average strenght of 12 hcp hands; they each contain 2 1/2 quick tricks. Only about 15% of 12 hcp bridge contain 2 1/2 or 3 QT. A wide majority of the weaker 12 hcp with doublton spades will provide negative returns at both MPs and IMPS if opened in 4th hand. Normally, the rule of 15 works well with most borderline hands. Thus, your intial hypothesis that reopening in general on any 12 hcp hand with a doubleton spade is false, while my study of the example hands you provided show that the subset of 12 hcp hands with a doubleton spade with 2 1/2 QT should be reopened.

 

Edit: My estimate of QT for 12 hcp hands was much too low. 53 1/3% new estimate. 1133est,3/13/ 2014

[kgr]

kgr

Your statements about my research are accurate except for your final conclusion. The hands that you provide in your OP were hands that were superior in overall strength to the average strenght of 12 hcp hands; they each contain 2 1/2 quick tricks. Only about 15% of 12 hcp bridge contain 2 1/2 or 3 QT. A wide majority of the weaker 12 hcp with doublton spades will provide negative returns at both MPs and IMPS if opened in 4th hand. Normally, the rule of 15 works well with most borderline hands. Thus, your intial hypothesis that reopening in general on any 12 hcp hand with a doubleton spade is false, while my study of the example hands you provided show that the subset of 12 hcp hands with a doubleton spade with 2 1/2 QT should be reopened.

Ok, thanks. Makes sense