Poor judgement or bad luck?

[helene_t]

Rainer is correct. The contract is cold on any lead. It is not double dummy; it is the only possible line ---made more comfortable by West not being able to raise Clubs, yet doubling.

Is it the only possible line (stepping up with ♥A, strip minor suits partially, throw W in with a heart)? I would think that playing E for ♥K is a reasonable alternative. Without the double, of course.

[mfa1010]

Probably more annoying for west would be to establish the 5th heart through brute force. That would demonstrate that his hearts are too weak for his double. ;)

[beowulf]

I'm entirely in agreement with the non-doublers. I think doubling voluntarily bid games, especially minor suit games, is bad bridge unless you have some real surprise for declarer. Even then it may be a bad idea if your double gives up the surprise element.

 

If anything, it means they’ll probably be pushier in game hunting than weaker players. The odds favour bidding it when vul when it’s about 35%, so if they’re a minimum, which both my partner’s overcall and their sequence suggests they are, the a priori odds before I even look at my hand are that it’s not making.

The probability of success required for bidding a vulnerable game, assuming that the result is either making or down one undoubled is 37.5% (i.e. 3/8) not 35%. But in reality, it's a little more complex than that.

 

Let's assume that your opposite number at the other table is faced with the exact same decision that you are but does not double. And for now, let's assume that if you do double you won't actually help declarer make his contract. So, if you double and they are down 1, you will gain 3 imps. If you're wrong and they make, you will lose 4 imps. Those are the two most likely outcomes and you need to be 57% sure of being right to gain in the long run.

 

But there are actually some more bad things (and good things) that can happen. If they go down 2 you will win 7 imps over your more timid opponent. That's nice. However, if they make an overtrick, you will lose 8 imps. What if they redouble? Maybe one or other of the opponents at your table was conscious of having underbid earlier (perhaps not so likely here) and is regretting that he didn't try for 6. 5DXX+1 will cost you 13 imps.

 

And it could be worse. If they are making an overtrick and your teammates are actually in 6D making, you were slated to win 13 by going quietly. But now, if they do redouble, you are going to lose an imp, for a swing of 14! Even if they neglect to redouble, you're still turning 13 into 9 (a net loss of 4).

[mfa1010]

Worst case is if they guess the layout and make a game they would otherwise have gone down in.

[HighLow21]

Worst case is if they guess the layout and make a game they would otherwise have gone down in.

Probability=1%. Unless you lead a trump of course.

[gnasher]

Is it the only possible line (stepping up with ♥A, strip minor suits partially, throw W in with a heart)? I would think that playing E for ♥K is a reasonable alternative. Without the double, of course.

Playing ♥A doesn't preclude playing East for ♥K. We can play ♥A, ♦K, ♦A, heart towards dummy. That line is 100% unless trumps are 3-0, and we're still well placed when West has three trumps.

 

It's almost impossible for East to have three trumps and ♥K. That would give West at least K98xxxx Jxxx - Jx, which is worth a preemptive overcall even if you're Fluffy's partner.

[gab7nt]

West should have bid 2S over 2D. By passing then, he made his bed. He did not involve partner and has zero right to double 5D. Passing 2D was a bigger error than doubling 5D.

[Vampyr]

3) Draw two trumps, then rough a club.

 

Poor old club :(

 

Probability=1%. Unless you lead a trump of course.

 

Haven't enough people said that it is entirely possible that they would go wrong without the double? You have behaved well of late. Don't spoil it.

[jgillispie]

Would you like to tell the entire story? What was the result? 5♦X=????

 

Shouldn't it go down one? ♣J, overtake with ♣Q. Return the singleton heart.

Would South find a double dummy line to make this hand? Next time don't double.

 

IMHO, if this is how the defense starts, then declarer needs to hope that E has 7 clubs and construct an endplay on W. This appears to be the best chance to make 5D after this defense.

[mfa1010]

IMHO, if this is how the defense starts, then declarer needs to hope that E has 7 clubs and construct an endplay on W. This appears to be the best chance to make 5D after this defense.

 

If trumps are 2-1/1-2, then declarer is 100% to get a second heart trick by leading the ♥7 up to ♥QT8x later, ruffing out their stoppers.

[Jinksy]

I don’t understand bidding 2S. What’s it supposed to achieve?

 

I don’t want to compete to 4S over 4H

I don’t want to compete to 5S over 5D

My CJx doesn’t guarantee 3 level safety if they start doubling

If they play in Ds or Hs I’ll be on lead

If it’s the killer lead for 3N, I’d hope P will find it anyway – but if they bid to 3N I’ll very likely X it for a H lead anyway

[dake50]

I don’t understand bidding 2S. What’s it supposed to achieve?

..I don’t want to compete to 4S over 4H

I don’t want to compete to 5S over 5D

My CJx doesn’t guarantee 3 level safety if they start doubling

If they play in Ds or Hs I’ll be on lead

If it’s the killer lead for 3N, I’d hope P will find it anyway – but if they bid to 3N I’ll very likely X it for a H lead anyway -- Jinksy

 

*** And my assets are HKJxxx in opponents bid suit +CJ +SK??

What AN I HOPING FOR?

Further what do I want 2S in the future on bigger/useful hands to mean?

[gab7nt]

I don’t understand bidding 2S. What’s it supposed to achieve?

 

I don’t want to compete to 4S over 4H

I don’t want to compete to 5S over 5D

My CJx doesn’t guarantee 3 level safety if they start doubling

If they play in Ds or Hs I’ll be on lead

If it’s the killer lead for 3N, I’d hope P will find it anyway – but if they bid to 3N I’ll very likely X it for a H lead anyway

 

At the point RHO bids 2D why on earth would you be thinking about competing with 4s over 4H or 5S over 5D? What gives you the impression the opponents have game? What gives you the impression it is opponents hand rather than ours? Why do you think it's OK to mastermind the auction? How about doing it the right way: Describe your hand and COOPERATE with partner and TOGETHER decide on the right way to procede.

[gab7nt]

I don’t understand bidding 2S. What’s it supposed to achieve?

..I don’t want to compete to 4S over 4H

I don’t want to compete to 5S over 5D

My CJx doesn’t guarantee 3 level safety if they start doubling

If they play in Ds or Hs I’ll be on lead

If it’s the killer lead for 3N, I’d hope P will find it anyway – but if they bid to 3N I’ll very likely X it for a H lead anyway -- Jinksy

 

*** And my assets are HKJxxx in opponents bid suit +CJ +SK??

What AN I HOPING FOR?

Further what do I want 2S in the future on bigger/useful hands to mean?

 

You have forgotten the early part of the auction: namely you did not overcall 1S, you passed. Therefore, 2S here cannot be a great hand with spades... if so why did you not overcall initially? 2S here clearly shows a hand that wants to compete in clubs but with an added feature: a semi decent five-card spade suit.

[Jinksy]

I agree it shows both of those things. I don't agree that I have either of them.

[beowulf]

I don’t understand bidding 2S. What’s it supposed to achieve?

As others have said - just bid normally and involve your partner. Partner has shown a decent hand and you have 8 points. There's no reason to curl up and die. Your side has 19 hcp, theirs 21. So it's not at all clear that they "own" the hand, especially when you have the spades.

 

If partner gets to raise your spades, as he likely will, you will know that you have an eight-card spade fit and, in all probability, an eight-card club fit. Having a double fit like that should make you want to bid (or pass), not double. It's true that you have a surprise in hearts and a trump lead might be a successful defense but double is speculative.

 

It will be a tough decision over 5♦ but, having described your hand well, partner will be in a much better position to make a decision over 5♦ than you. With Qx in diamonds he's unlikely to want to bid 5♠ (which could be down too many) but will also know that they might easily make 5♦, given that you couldn't overcall the 1♥ bid.

 

If your side does end up in 5♠X, you might easily win a few imps if you are able to hold the damage to down two.

[the hog]

I agree it shows both of those things. I don't agree that I have either of them.

 

You don't have 5S? Did you get the hand record wrong?

Isn't spades the boss suit?

At this stage you know very little about the hand. Could your partner not have Axx in S or better and 5/6 decent Clubs? You need to tell your partner what you have, not be frightened.

[Jinksy]

I don't call K9xxx 'semi-decent'. And I still don't understand what I'm trying to achieve by bidding here other than to prove that I've heard of fit non-jumps.

 

This hand looks like a misfit. Just because the points are split doesn't mean I want to compete.

[gnasher]

I don't call K9xxx 'semi-decent'. And I still don't understand what I'm trying to achieve by bidding here other than to prove that I've heard of fit non-jumps.

 

This hand looks like a misfit. Just because the points are split doesn't mean I want to compete.

Why don't you want to compete? Partner will have either six clubs or a good hand, and the spades are known to be breaking. The opponents are almost guaranteed to have a diamond fit, so one obvious upside of 2♠ is that it may push them to an unmakeable 3♦ when they were about to play in 2♦.

[MrAce]

I would bid 1 ♠ over 1♥

 

I would bid 2♠ over 2♦

 

I would not DBL 5 ♦ myself but i have sympathy to the thoughts of Jinsky and would not criticize it.

 

I agree that when a dbl gives us too much info to the declarer to a point that a normally unmakeable contracts become makeable. But there is another side of this coin. Tbh i have seen also a lot of contracts which was cold w/o a reckless dbl and went down after dbl as well as contracts that were made just because of the dbl. In this hand, had declarer had 9 trumps he could have talked himself into taking wrong finesse. Or after ♣ J lead overtaken and continuation he could have talked himself into ruffing with K and try to finesse you (lets say dummy had 4 clubs ) Even on this hand it was not clear that dbl suggested not to take the ♥ finesse. However declarer should not take ♥ finesse because of the reasons Andy (Gnasher) wrote, more than because of your dbl.

 

I said i would not dbl myself, because the outcome of this type of doubles are way too random for me.

[jogs]

 

I said i would not dbl myself, because the outcome of this type of doubles are way too random for me.

 

I wouldn't double because it paints a picture of the hand for declarer, increasing his chances of making the hand.

 

Lead a club. In a contested auction, the only excuse for not leading partner's suit is being right.

[the hog]

One thing I cannot understand, Jinksy, is why you bother posting thee hands if you do not listen to the proferred advice. Most have said an overcall of 1 or 2S is obvious and that the double is plain pure bad judgement.

[Jinksy]

I am very interested in advice when it's accompanied by an argument that involves some concept of expectation and either some generalizability of either hand type or reasoning to other hands, since that's how I can actually learn from it. Otherwise what am I supposed to do? Just nod and remember that if that exact hand ever comes up again in the exact sequence I'll have the majority's approval for making a specific call?

 

I'm much less interested when I either don't get an argument, or it simply repeats points I've explicitly discussed earlier in the thread or, better but still less satisfying, it consists solely of a couple of 'what ifs' without addressing the whole set of plausible outcomes.

 

Even then, if I can extrapolate some actual practical advice to take from it, I'll try to do so - for eg, as a result of heavy majority view in the 'sandwiched' thread, I'll be overcalling 1N after two bids on pretty much any balanced 16 count with requisite stoppers. In this thread, I’m still struggling to see what to take from it to other hands, but I guess I’ll be less keen to make penalty Xes against suit contracts without harder controls as well as well-placed honours.

 

(I'm still chewing over Gnasher's comment, so hopefully I'll be able to modify my future decisions based on that)

 

I would hope people here are reasonable enough to differentiate between me probing their claims and dismissing them out of hand. If you can't do so, why do you bother posting answers?

[the hog]

"In this thread, I’m still struggling to see what to take from it to other hands"

 

Mr Ace

I would bid 1 ♠ over 1♥

I would bid 2♠ over 2♦

 

Gnasher

Why don't you want to compete?

 

Beowulf

As others have said - just bid normally and involve your partner. Partner has shown a decent hand and you have 8 points. There's no reason to curl up and die

 

Finally Jinksy

And I still don't understand what I'm trying to achieve by bidding here other than to prove that I've heard of fit non-jumps.