Best way to play this grand slam?

[xeno123]

In a recent GIB (MP) tournament I bid and made this 7♠ contract.

 

Two questions:

 

1) Is my 7♠ bid appropriate after GIB cue-bid in response to my splinter? (Note I had more points than the stated requirements for the splinter, but what else to bid?)

 

2) What is the optimal way to play this hand after the king of hearts opening lead? As the cards lie (2-2 ♠ break) it's easy. But what's the best way to survive a 3-1 break? Transport is hard if you ruff a club and then draw trumps - the only remaining entry to dummy is by overtaking the diamond jack. And if you do ruff a club, which one - king (hoping E goes up with the ace) or low?

 

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[Antrax]

In GIBberish your first bid should be 2♥ to set a game force and show five hearts. Then you can bid 3♠ over his 2♠ and GIB will raise to 4, showing a minimum and leaving you guessing.

[kuhchung]

I guess my line is

 

ruff the heart lead

spade up

ruff another heart

spade up (claim on 2-2)

diamond to the ace

CK, intending to ruff even if not covered

heart ruff

run trumps, squeezing somebody somewhere but it feels like a lot of guessing still. argh.

[rhm]

Even if trumps are not 4-0 and diamonds run there are only 12 tricks.

 

So where is your 13th trick?

I see three possibilities

 

If trumps are 2-2 you can ruff a club.

If trumps are 3-1 you could ruff 3 hearts and hope hearts are 4-4

If West has three trumps and East has club ace. In this case, where West has 3 trumps playing East for the ♣ A is a better chance than playing for hearts being 4.4

 

So you could play:

 

T1: ♥ ruff

T2: trump

T3: ♥ ruff

T4-5: diamonds

T6: trump

 

If trumps are 2-2 claim

 

If East has 3 trumps:

 

T6: ♥ ruff

T7: trump

 

If hearts are 4-4 dummy is high.

 

If after Trick 6 West has 3 trumps:

 

Play high diamonds and ♥A from dummy. If West ruffs, overruff and take the ruffing finesse in clubs. (If West does not ruff in you do not need the ruffing finesse)

 

Chances for this line is slightly better than 50%. So the grand is not a particularly good proposition.

 

As far as I can tell the robot played not for the chance that East might have three trumps and hearts being 4-4, but played for the additional chance that West has three trumps and East the ♣A. (a bit above 45%)

 

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

I guess my line is

 

ruff the heart lead

spade up

ruff another heart

spade up (claim on 2-2)

diamond to the ace

CK, intending to ruff even if not covered

heart ruff

run trumps, squeezing somebody somewhere but it feels like a lot of guessing still. argh.

I don't think you're squeezing anybody anywhere. You have only eleven top tricks. If East has ♣A, the long hearts and ♣A, he is squeezed for a twelfth trick, but he just unguards hearts and you can't squeeze him again.

[xeno123]

Even if trumps are not 4-0 and diamonds run there are only 12 tricks.

 

So where is your 13th trick?

I see three possibilities

 

If trumps are 2-2 you can ruff a club.

If trumps are 3-1 you could ruff 3 hearts and hope hearts are 4-4

If West has three trumps and East has club ace. In this case, where West has 3 trumps playing East for the ♣ A is a better chance than playing for hearts being 4.4

 

So you could play:

 

T1: ♥ ruff

T2-3: diamonds

T4: trump

T5: ♥ ruff

T6: trump

 

If trumps are 2-2 claim

 

If East has 3 trumps:

 

T6: ♥ ruff

T7: trump

 

If hearts are 4-4 dummy is high.

 

If after Trick 6 West has 3 trumps:

 

Play high diamonds and ♥A from dummy. If West ruffs, overruff and take the ruffing finesse in clubs. (If West does not ruff in you do not need the ruffing finesse)

 

Chances for this line is slightly better than 50%. So the grand is not a particularly good proposition.

 

As far as I can tell the robot played not for the chance that East might have three trumps and hearts being 4-4, but played for the additional chance that West has three trumps and East the ♣A. (a bit above 45%)

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

Yes, that seems a sensible analysis - thanks.

 

But isn't there one other line to consider - trumps 3-1 and diamonds either 3-3 or 4-2 with the 10 dropping or with the person holding the A clubs also holding the 4 diamonds.

 

T1: heart ruff

T2-3 trumps - if 2-2 then claim

T4 diamond to ace

T5 club ruff

T6 heart ruff

T7-9 trumps

(so now declarer has J diamonds and KQJ clubs; dummy has KQ9x diamonds)

T10 J diamond, overtaking with king

run diamonds if 3-3 or 10 drops or the person with the A of clubs also had 4 diamonds.

 

 

BTW, it was me playing the hand not GIB - these days the human always declares.

 

Peter

[kuhchung]

I don't think you're squeezing anybody anywhere. You have only eleven top tricks. If East has ♣A, the long hearts and ♣A, he is squeezed for a twelfth trick, but he just unguards hearts and you can't squeeze him again.

 

Right, diamonds haven't come in for 5 tricks yet. I'm smart.

[rhm]

Yes, that seems a sensible analysis - thanks.

 

But isn't there one other line to consider - trumps 3-1 and diamonds either 3-3 or 4-2 with the 10 dropping or with the person holding the A clubs also holding the 4 diamonds.

 

T1: heart ruff

T2-3 trumps - if 2-2 then claim

T4 diamond to ace

T5 club ruff

T6 heart ruff

T7-9 trumps

(so now declarer has J diamonds and KQJ clubs; dummy has KQ9x diamonds)

T10 J diamond, overtaking with king

run diamonds if 3-3 or 10 drops or the person with the A of clubs also had 4 diamonds.

 

 

 

 

 

BTW, it was me playing the hand not GIB - these days the human always declares.

 

Peter

Agreed

 

A good line, even though the diamond club squeeze does not materialize. (In the 4 card ending an opponent has room for ♦Txx and ♣A)

However a triple squeeze is theoretically possible against East (hearts, diamonds,♣A) if you isolate the heart menace ♥A,♠A;K,♥ruff,♣ruff,♥ruff, trumps.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[gszes]

I have seen worse grand slams but I admit I would have been

much happier in 6. Blame the computer for its bidding. The play

however seems more interesting. RHM accurately shows the possible

way to 13 tricks though hoping hearts are 44 also means needing

a fair amount of diamond help (33 or doubleton T). IMO we are much

better off just playing east for the club A if we have to since

that is at worst around a 5050 shot.

 

trick 1 ruff the heart

trick 2 trump assuming trumps not 40

trick 3 trump if trumps 22 we are practically a lay down

trick 4 dia A

trick 5 dia J if dia no worse than 42 claim if dia do not break

trick 6 take ruffing finesse in clubs (we only need 1) and

claim if it works.

 

This lop does not run the risk of anyone ruffing a dia when trumps are 22

and still leaves all options open

 

if trumps are 31 it does not really matter much which opponent has the

3 trumps we need some help. We do not have sufficient entries to pull

trumps and run diamonds and still get a club ruff in (13 tricks) IMO

trick 4 ruff a heart and take the ruffing finesse immediately. If it

works we will need only 2 pitches for our 2 losing clubs and those can

come from the heart A and another dia when we overtake the dia J later.

 

trick 5 club K (assuming it is covered) ruff

trick 6 dia to A

trick 7 trump and claim (6 trumps 1 club ruff heart A 2 clubs 3 dia(overtake dia J)

 

this LOP can fail if lho has 3 trumps and a singleton club since rho can duck

clubs twice and you have to let it ride for lho to ruff but that's pretty small

probability. This LOP makes whenever trumps are 22 OR the club A is with east (with

some small dangers of 60 diamonds or a singleton club with 3 trumps and accurate

defense in the case of clubs)

 

41% trumps will break 22 86% dia will break 42 or 33 = 35%

if dia break 51 or worse 50% club A onside for additional 5%

 

49% trumps break 31 50% club ace onside 98 % chance clubs no worse than 62 = 23%

 

so this lop gives us roughly 63%

[gnasher]

However a triple squeeze is theoretically possible against East (hearts, diamonds,♣A) if you isolate the heart menace ♥A,♠A;K,♥ruff,♣ruff,♥ruff, trumps.

That's a triple squeeze for one down. This is the position with two trumps to go:

[hv=pc=n&s=sh97dkq952c&w=sthd87ct986&n=sj8hdajckqj&e=shqjdt643ca]399|300[/hv]

On the penultimate trump, East discards a heart. If South could keep both red-suit menaces, the next trump would generate two winners. However, South has to throw something, and on the final trump East unguards that suit.

[gnasher]

RHM accurately shows the possible

way to 13 tricks though hoping hearts are 44 also means needing

a fair amount of diamond help (33 or doubleton T).

RHM isn't overtaking in diamonds, so any 4-2 break will do.

 

IMO we are much

better off just playing east for the club A if we have to since

that is at worst around a 5050 shot.

 

trick 1 ruff the heart

trick 2 trump assuming trumps not 40

trick 3 trump if trumps 22 we are practically a lay down

trick 4 dia A

trick 5 dia J if dia no worse than 42 claim if dia do not break

trick 6 take ruffing finesse in clubs (we only need 1) and

Yes, that seems (now that you've pointed it out) obviously better.

 

The essential difference between your and Rainer's line is what you do when trumps are 1=3. Rainer is playing for hearts 4-4 and you're taking a ruffing club finesse. When the vacant spaces are 12:10, a ruffing club finesse is 10/22 = 45%, which is still better than a 4-4 break, so we don't even have to consider Rainer's risk of diamonds 5-1.