Lord Molyb Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 [hv=pc=n&s=sqj43hat932dk7cak&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1n4n]133|200[/hv]1NT is 12-144NT shows a very distributional hand with the minors.What do you do here?The vulnerability is wrong in the diagram, you're red on white. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mbodell Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Is it MP or IMP. I think I do an in tempo 6♥ but I like it better at MP than IMP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Molyb Posted February 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 It's IMPs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akwoo Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I bid 5♣. I don't know what it means, and neither does partner, except that it surely is artificial and forcing. I raise either major to 6 and bid 5♥ over 5♦. Hopefully in the last case partner will figure there is a reason I didn't just bid 5♥ and raise to 6 with a suitable hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antrax Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Honestly this seems pretty simple. We're missing 13 HCP in the majors. Partner has 12 of them. 6♥ seems like a good spot. No? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhm Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Honestly this seems pretty simple. We're missing 13 HCP in the majors. Partner has 12 of them. 6♥ seems like a good spot. No?No! Why should that be the case? Because East 4NT bid shows a lot of minor cards? Partner has probably a minimum of 5 cards in the minors and at most 8 cards in the majors. Why should partner have all his HCP in the majors? A priori probability tells me that partner should have about 8 HCP in the majors.But even if East has say 12 or 13 cards in the minors partner could still have more than 5 cards in the minors. Since you are missing 10 HCP in the minors and 13 HCP in the majors this also tends to tell you that chances are that partner has some of his points in the minors. There is just one honor combination ♠AK,♥KQ, while there are many more honor combinations where opener has minor suit honors. If these are lower minor suit honors that will be useless. Does East bid affect the above probability? Yes, but only slightly, not significantly. What East bid shows is, that most of the missing 17 minor suit cards (if we give partner 5 minor suit cards) are with East. My guess is East has 12 cards in the minors, probably 6-6, and that means it is very unlikely that any major suit will break well.6♥ might still make, but it is against the odds. At Imps I take the money. At MP it is closer, but I would still double. Rainer Herrmann Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I expect very bad breaks, I would double and lay there. _|\ \ \ What a pussy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm gonna double everything. I have loads in the minors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antrax Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Rainer, do you think E would bid 4NT over a weak 1NT opener looking at ♠A ♥KQ ♦xxxxx ♣xxxxx ?The vulnerability is nice, but it's take a huge risk and for what? I dunno, maybe it's only players in my level, but when it's easy for the opponents to penalize (because they're looking at trump tricks and because there will be no ambiguity about the meaning of double) I try to avoid preempting on crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 If partner has wastage in the minors, we should double them in 5m, I'd expect 500-800 while our game might not make. If partner has no wastage in the minors, we will probably make 6M.If only there was a way to let partner cooperate in the decision whether to double them... If we double, LHO bids 5m, and partner passes this, how can it be right not to try for slam? Conversely, if he doubles, how can it be right to bid 6♥?Of course, the auction will not always time out so well (I don't know what to do if it goes X P P 5♣), but it doesn't hurt to try. Another point: I think we should let partner declare. At least we won't suffer a ruff in the other major at trick one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 There's no reason to just assume that all partner's cards are in the majors (although it is quite likely if East is solid). Just double. If Partner doubles 5m, sit it. Even against a rock who holds ♠-♥x♦AQJxxx♣QJxxxx), you can collect 1400 if partner has four trumps. If partner passes, we can then follow through with our read that he has length and strength in the majors. Don't bid an inept 6♥ though - you may go off on a ruff (and good pairs don't even need to double for the lead). With all the cards now "marked", you have 12 tricks in 6NT. Edit - Cherdano made the same points at the same time. :blink: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhm Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Rainer, do you think E would bid 4NT over a weak 1NT opener looking at ♠A ♥KQ ♦xxxxx ♣xxxxx ?The vulnerability is nice, but it's take a huge risk and for what? No, but I never said or implied that. I said I expect East to have 12 cards in the minors. East does not promise many HCP, e.g. something like ♠x,♥-,♦AJT9xx, ♣JT9xxx would be plenty. That your construction is not likely does not imply that partner should have all his honors in the major.West need not be broke. He might well have honors in the majors. Rainer Herrmann Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ggwhiz Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm expecting extreme bad breaks with major suit finesses and or squeeze chances coming home against west. Very tempting to head for 6nt but will start with 5♣ and should at least get a chance to hammer them at the 6 or even 7 level on these colors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszes Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 The lack of partnership agreement has apparently thrown us into a tizzy. We have 29-31 hcp with a 5 card heart suit but we havebeen forewarned that the majors will probably split (very) badlynot to mention that if we play a major from our side the oppsmight easily be in a position to get an opening lead ruff in theother major. There is no guarantee of safety if we bid so we have to decideif the somewhat low % of slam probability makes up for the riskof going down at whatever our resting spot is. That is not allhowever---there is apparently no "standard" approach to this situation and what I thought was the standard approach would nothelp a whit here anyway sigh. Combining all of these factors seemsto make the risk vs reward potential too great and I favor x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnu Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm expecting extreme bad breaks with major suit finesses and or squeeze chances coming home against west. What squeeze do you think is remotely likely against west? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighLow21 Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Wow... This is a tough one. At MPs I might venture 6♥ but we could easily be off a trump and a pointed suit trick, or 2 trumps. One thing I KNOW we have is 3 minor suit tricks, so at IMPs I am doubling. There's no reason slam is necessarily making and equally no reason they can avoid -4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighLow21 Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Honestly this seems pretty simple. We're missing 13 HCP in the majors. Partner has 12 of them. 6♥ seems like a good spot. No?Give partner and RHO the following and be prepared to apologize... Partner:♠AT75♥Q74♦AJ5♣Q83 RHO:♠K2♥-♦QTxxxx♣JT9xx 4NT is not a terrible bid White vs. Red with these cards. Now you are probably down 2 while 5 of either minor loses 6 tricks, and maybe 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I don't like guesses, so I'll just take the money :D 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 What squeeze do you think is remotely likely against west?I'm not sure if it passes the "remotely likely" test, but how about this one? [hv=pc=n&s=sqj43hat932dk7cak&w=skt98hq8765d43c54&n=sa7652hkj4daq2c32&e=shdjt9865cqjt9876]399|300[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighLow21 Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm not sure if it passes the "remotely likely" test, but how about this one? [hv=pc=n&s=sqj43hat932dk7cak&w=skt98hq8765d43c54&n=sa7652hkj4daq2c32&e=shdjt9865cqjt9876]399|300[/hv]No slam here is possible on correct defense due to a lack of major suit entries. Play it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Molyb Posted February 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 No slam here is possible on correct defense due to a lack of major suit entries. Play it out.6NT makes.And the other two slams not making are a result of having an unavoidable spade and an additional trump loser no matter which of the major suits are trump. Has nothing to do with major suit entries <_< 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighLow21 Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 6NT makes.And the other two slams not making are a result of having an unavoidable spade and an additional trump loser no matter which of the major suits are trump. Has nothing to do with major suit entries <_<How exactly do you propose to take the needed 7 major suit tricks if West discards a heart on the 3rd diamond (the squeeze card)? From what I can tell--minor suit led, 10♥ (not covered), heart to the jack, run the 4 minor suit tricks. On the final diamond, N must throw a spade. W must throw a heart and there it is (I think?) I suppose the squeeze works if 2 rounds of hearts are run before the squeeze--but only if. -T Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Yep, you are right. FYP. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ggwhiz Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 6nt looks reasonably easy given the 4nt bid. Just hook the heart and cash 3 rounds not two before finishing the minor suit winners. Come down to ♠Axxxx opposite ♠QJx ♥AT and lead a low spade to the Queen. West had to pitch one from ♠KT98 ♥Qx (in the 5-card ending) and is doomed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighLow21 Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 6nt looks reasonably easy. Just hook the heart and cash 3 rounds before finishing the minor suit winners. Come down to ♠Axxxx opposite ♠QJx ♥AT and lead a low spade to the Queen. West had to pitch one from ♠KT98 ♥Qx (at that point) and is doomed.Yep I initially missed the point about the repeated heart finesse before the squeeze. Getting back to the main point of the thread--I can't see how slam is >50% but I am certain 5 of either minor is going down a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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