6NT with chances

[Lord Molyb]

[hv=pc=n&s=saqj7hk43dckjt842&n=s52hqj75dakqt65ca&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=p1cp1dp1sp2hp3np4dp4np6nppp]266|200[/hv]

♥A led and another, east follows with the 6 on the first round and then discards a club.

6NT is not a hopeless contract, but there are only 9 top tricks- ♠A, ♥KQJ, ♦AKQ, ♣AK. There are, however, opportunities to get 3 extra tricks. How do you go about it?

 

Also, why do my pickup partners on BBO always leave whenever they get a minus score?

[mcphee]

Indeed not hopeless, but clearly not a spot we want to be in. I would win K, play a C. I would now take the spade hook as I am not sure what to dump on the diamonds yet. I am not that much of an optimist to think the J will fall 3rd and if this spade wins I could be in very good shape. If not who cares.

 

Why you bid 3N might be the reason your pard left.

[Lord Molyb]

Indeed not hopeless, but clearly not a spot we want to be in. I would win K, play a C. I would now take the spade hook as I am not sure what to dump on the diamonds yet. I am not that much of an optimist to think the J will fall 3rd and if this spade wins I could be in very good shape. If not who cares.

 

Why you bid 3N might be the reason your pard left.

I was north

[nate_m]

Win K, club to ace, 3 rounds of diamonds pitching clubs. If Jxx falls I have 12 tricks. If they don't run then take the spade hook, cash club king, and run off 2 more hearts hoping somebody gets squeezed. I go down if Qx clubs was dropping and the spade hook is off, but I don't see a way to cater to that without giving up more likely chances.

[Cyberyeti]

Win K, club to ace, 3 rounds of diamonds pitching clubs. If Jxx falls I have 12 tricks. If they don't run then take the spade hook, cash club king, and run off 2 more hearts hoping somebody gets squeezed. I go down if Qx clubs was dropping and the spade hook is off, but I don't see a way to cater to that without giving up more likely chances.

 

Doesn't the A♥ lead suggest to you that the man has K♠ ?

[nige1]

Win K, club to ace, 3 rounds of diamonds pitching clubs. If Jxx falls I have 12 tricks. If they don't run then take the spade hook, cash club king, and run off 2 more hearts hoping somebody gets squeezed. I go down if Qx clubs was dropping and the spade hook is off, but I don't see a way to cater to that without giving up more likely chances.

Doesn't the A♥ lead suggest to you that the man has K♠ ?

I like nate_m's line, losing when ♦J fails to drop and LHO has ♠K but with chances when LHO was trying to reduce endplay possibilities with ♣Qxx.

[johnu]

Doesn't the A♥ lead suggest to you that the man has K♠ ?

 

Maybe, but this is BBO where for most opponents, the only reliable inference is that opening leader has the ♥A :P What kind of inference can you make from someone who leads ace from A10982?

 

Still, the odds of ♣Q being doubleton is only 16%, so you've got to have a high level of confidence that opening leader has ♠K to not take the spade finesse if diamonds don't run.

[Cyberyeti]

Maybe, but this is BBO where for most opponents, the only reliable inference is that opening leader has the ♥A :P What kind of inference can you make from someone who leads ace from A10982?

 

Still, the odds of ♣Q being doubleton is only 16%, so you've got to have a high level of confidence that opening leader has ♠K to not take the spade finesse if diamonds don't run.

 

K♠ onside is only 11 tricks, you still need more, so you're not comparing with 50%, you need him to have 4 or more to the K and J♦ or Q♣, likely but not certain, 10xxx, A10xxx, x, Qxx is not impossible for E where I can see that you might not fancy any other lead.

[nate_m]

Doesn't the A♥ lead suggest to you that the man has K♠ ?

 

What is your suggested line of play?

[Cyberyeti]

What is your suggested line of play?

 

I don't play BBO so didn't have the inference that the A♥ could be semi random, but I would probably play to drop Q♣ in preference to the spade finesse if somebody I respected led A♥. (Yes I'm aware the hand I posted doesn't make 6N, but it was posted to show that K♠ onside wasn't sufficient).

[nate_m]

I don't play BBO so didn't have the inference that the A♥ could be semi random, but I would probably play to drop Q♣ in preference to the spade finesse if somebody I respected led A♥. (Yes I'm aware the hand I posted doesn't make 6N, but it was posted to show that K♠ onside wasn't sufficient).

 

On this hand I would be surprised to see the A♥ lead from somebody I respected. I will admit, my hand construction abilities are limited, but after giving the matter some thought, I can't think of a single hand where such a lead would be even barely passable. I certainly would not be able to think of such a hand at the table. I agree with your instinct that the lead is strange, but BBO random or not, the inference I would draw is that LHO is most likely not a strong player and I would not take antipercentage lines as a result.

[cherdano]

Doesn't the A♥ lead suggest to you that the man has K♠ ?

Why?

 

I think the main reason to lead ♥A is the thought that partner might have the ♥K.

[Cyberyeti]

Why?

 

I think the main reason to lead ♥A is the thought that partner might have the ♥K.

 

In a random BBO game maybe. What would you lead from Kxx, A10xxx, x, xxxx ? You'd feel sick if you picked up partner's ♦Jxxx with declarer holding Qx or ♣Qxx or Jxxx with dummy void.

[PhilKing]

In a random BBO game maybe. What would you lead from Kxx, A10xxx, x, xxxx ? You'd feel sick if you picked up partner's ♦Jxxx with declarer holding Qx or ♣Qxx or Jxxx with dummy void.

 

I would overcall 1♥ and never lead the ♥A.

 

Obviously one should lead a diamond - you have simply misread the bidding, or at least overestimated the chances of a diamond costing by about 5000% (this figure is not intended as hyperbole). One could argue that cashing the ace avoids the strip-squeeze, but that is not sufficient reason to prematurely ejaculate.

[nate_m]

In a random BBO game maybe. What would you lead from Kxx, A10xxx, x, xxxx ? You'd feel sick if you picked up partner's ♦Jxxx with declarer holding Qx or ♣Qxx or Jxxx with dummy void.

 

If that's the layout then W has pitched to a stiff club Q. In any case, agree with PhilKing that a diamond lead stands out with the given hand. The auction strongly indicates that you are setting up heart tricks for declarer. The lead just indicates that LHO is a weak player.

[Cyberyeti]

I would overcall 1♥ and never lead the ♥A.

 

Obviously one should lead a diamond - you have simply misread the bidding, or at least overestimated the chances of a diamond costing by about 5000% (this figure is not intended as hyperbole). One could argue that cashing the ace avoids the strip-squeeze, but that is not sufficient reason to prematurely ejaculate.

 

IIRC (and possibly I don't) OP plays a weak no trump, not sure if he rebids 1♠ with a strong NT with 4324 shape, but if he does, 4324 15 count is consistent with this auction. I missed the club pitch from E, so the W hand I gave won't be what's actually going on.

[Fluffy]

The lead from A109x(x) simply suggests west is a beginner

[mfa1010]

It is unclear to me why west would be inclined to cash ♥A holding ♠K. We are playing notrumps. ♥A would still stand up later, if declarer takes a spade finesse. I wouldn't read much in to that inference. On the other hand west has a fine 1♥ overcall with AT9xx and ♠K. I like nate's line, accepting an "unnecessary" spade finesse with ♣Qx dropping in return for good squeeze chances with ♠K onside.

[phil_20686]

Indeed not hopeless, but clearly not a spot we want to be in. I would win K, play a C. I would now take the spade hook as I am not sure what to dump on the diamonds yet. I am not that much of an optimist to think the J will fall 3rd and if this spade wins I could be in very good shape. If not who cares.

 

Why you bid 3N might be the reason your pard left.

 

This just seems like a terrible line - if the diamodns come in you have 12 tricks without the spade finesse. THe question is, whether to play for spade K onside and rely on a diamond - spade squeeze, or to rely on Qx club.

 

I'd pitch clubs myself. So if after three diamonds the diamonds are going to come in, take a spade hook and cash the club K. Cross back in hearts and play the 4th heart pitching your club J and hope someone is squeezed out of the long spade.

[gszes]

Win K, club to ace, 3 rounds of diamonds pitching clubs. If Jxx falls I have 12 tricks. If they don't run then take the spade hook, cash club king, and run off 2 more hearts hoping somebody gets squeezed. I go down if Qx clubs was dropping and the spade hook is off, but I don't see a way to cater to that without giving up more likely chances.

 

I would also start with winning the heart K and leading a club to the A. I am unsure though that

hoping the spade K works (in case the diamonds fail) is the best line. Even if the spade works

we need that 4th spade to come in and that would require the player that held the 4 spades to

also hold the club Q (if not we have only 3s 3h 3d 2c). If lho is holding the 4th spade we are

toast since they would pitch after us in any squeeze anyway so we are reduced to hoping rho has

4+ spades (along with the K) and the club Q. This means before we cash even 1 dia trick we need

decide between trying for the squeeze or intending to try and drop the club Q.

 

Assuming RHo has both missing black honors is a 25% shot and it also has to be that rho has 3+

clubs along with 4+ spades (since with 2 clubs the Q is dropping anyway even w/o the spade finesse.

When we take all of that into consideration I think it is awfully close between trying to play for

the squeeze or play for the drop of the club Q. If this was IMPS the heart lead would convince me

to strongly consider playing for the drop. At MP where the reasoning behind the lead could be nothing

more than someone trying to salvage some MP (with a hopeless defensive hand) in case the opps can

score 13 tricks off the top w/o a heart lead I would be much more inclined to go for the squeeze

and if it works I can practice restraint by NOT thanking lho for their very friendly heart lead.

 

If you can go through all this fast enough not to get penalized for slow play make sure you let

me know so I can avoid your table in the future:). ONE MORE THING to consider no matter if this is

IMPS or MP. Deciding to go for the drop is a highly dangerous route since you are going to have

to pitch the QJx of spades and lead to the A to try the drop. If you are wrong you will end up

limited to 3h 1s 3d 2c and go down 3 whereas choosing the squeeze LOP will never result in you

going down more than 2. This may seem like small stuff compared to making but if dia fail to

drop we do not expect to make much more than 1 in 6 times anyway so chucking an extra 3-5 IMPS

the 5 times we fail makes playing for the drop dramatically more expensive in the long run than

playing for the squeeze.

 

Taking all of this into consideration I am back to following Nate-m LOP and go for the squeeze.

UNLESS :) I needed a top at MP or a swing at IMPS SOTM then I would play for the drop.

[nate_m]

It is not close at all. If LHO has K fourth or longer we are basically 100% given we only need them to hold the diamond or club guard. If they have a short K we still get to try for Qx. Another way to see it is that playing for the drop only gains when RHO holds the spade K and Qx, which is 8% without factoring early play. It should be obvious that the spade finesse has more gaining cases. Even if we were 25% to make after trying diamonds (I would be shocked to see the actual odds much below 40% and the majority of that 40% are gaining cases) it is still very clear to play on diamonds without risking slow play penalties.

 

Considering using SOTM considerations to drop Qx? Now THAT will get you slow play penalties :) . That's also a really bad idea in this particular example because you need the lead...

[Fluffy]

So did the squeeze work?

[phil_20686]

I would also start with winning the heart K and leading a club to the A. I am unsure though that

hoping the spade K works (in case the diamonds fail) is the best line. Even if the spade works

we need that 4th spade to come in and that would require the player that held the 4 spades to

also hold the club Q (if not we have only 3s 3h 3d 2c). If lho is holding the 4th spade we are

toast since they would pitch after us in any squeeze anyway so we are reduced to hoping rho has

4+ spades (along with the K) and the club Q. This means before we cash even 1 dia trick we need

decide between trying for the squeeze or intending to try and drop the club Q.

 

Assuming RHo has both missing black honors is a 25% shot and it also has to be that rho has 3+

clubs along with 4+ spades (since with 2 clubs the Q is dropping anyway even w/o the spade finesse.

When we take all of that into consideration I think it is awfully close between trying to play for

the squeeze or play for the drop of the club Q. If this was IMPS the heart lead would convince me

to strongly consider playing for the drop. At MP where the reasoning behind the lead could be nothing

more than someone trying to salvage some MP (with a hopeless defensive hand) in case the opps can

score 13 tricks off the top w/o a heart lead I would be much more inclined to go for the squeeze

and if it works I can practice restraint by NOT thanking lho for their very friendly heart lead.

 

If you can go through all this fast enough not to get penalized for slow play make sure you let

me know so I can avoid your table in the future:). ONE MORE THING to consider no matter if this is

IMPS or MP. Deciding to go for the drop is a highly dangerous route since you are going to have

to pitch the QJx of spades and lead to the A to try the drop. If you are wrong you will end up

limited to 3h 1s 3d 2c and go down 3 whereas choosing the squeeze LOP will never result in you

going down more than 2. This may seem like small stuff compared to making but if dia fail to

drop we do not expect to make much more than 1 in 6 times anyway so chucking an extra 3-5 IMPS

the 5 times we fail makes playing for the drop dramatically more expensive in the long run than

playing for the squeeze.

 

Taking all of this into consideration I am back to following Nate-m LOP and go for the squeeze.

UNLESS :) I needed a top at MP or a swing at IMPS SOTM then I would play for the drop.

 

You have forgotten that the diamond T is also a threat.

 

Also, the K of spades is most likely with the long spades, so when the spade K is onside, it is significantly more likely that east holds the long spades.

[Lord Molyb]

So did the squeeze work?

Sort of.

I was dummy and east held ♠T9xx ♥6 ♦Jxxx ♣Qxxx, so the contract is technically unmakable.

Partner ran his three heart winners and east didn't want to discard his spades in case declarer had AKQx of spades, so he discarded 2 clubs and a spade. Unfortunately, partner still misplayed it for down two.

[Fluffy]

You have forgotten that the diamond T is also a threat.

 

 

I was ging to say the same however it is only a threat against a 4540 shape on west, not so likely.