ArtK78 Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 In the third match (of six) of a Sectional Swiss Team, having won your first two matches, you hold: AQxxKJ9JxKJ9x All vul. Partner passes in first seat and RHO opens 1♥. Your call? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcphee Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 Color ,me yellow, I pass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_dude Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 I seem to get very poor results passing these hands. The likely second heart stopper makes me not even hesitate to bid 1NT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahydra Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oh go on then. 1NT. ahydra Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would bid 1NT, but sometimes people tell me I do that too readily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted February 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 I am also becoming gun shy when it comes to 1NT overcalls. Especially when vulnerable and facing a passed partner. But I am not as yellow as mcphee. I doubled. I figured that I had too much not to act, and that if partner did respond 2♦, he was likely to have 5 and it was not likely that we had a game. If partner jumped in a minor, I could bid 3NT. If partner had spades, that would be easy. If I remember correctly, LHO bid 2NT showing a limit raise or better in hearts, and eventually the opps settled in 3♥. Unfortunately, I didn't find a safe lead, and gave up a trick on the opening lead (extra credit if you can figure out which lead does NOT blow a trick). So the opps scored 140. This was a gain of 8 IMPs, as my counterpart at the other table bid 1NT and was doubled for 500. I was wondering if others were becoming reluctant to overcall 1NT, especially at these conditions. It is a textbook 1NT overcall (although clearly a minimum) but I am becoming convinced that it is losing bridge to overcall 1NT here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasetb Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 I detest having to overcall 1NT here, especially in 3rd or 4th seat (the people I usually play against don't open light in 3rd seat). Larry Cohen did a study awhile ago, and it said that a 1NT overcall usually worked out poorly. While I am sure some of that is due to people incorrectly ovecalling 1NT, my experience is also that it never seems to work out in 3rd seat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 I detest having to overcall 1NT here, especially in 3rd or 4th seat (the people I usually play against don't open light in 3rd seat). Larry Cohen did a study awhile ago, and it said that a 1NT overcall usually worked out poorly. It doesn't say that. It says that when the 1NT overcall was passed out, on average it led to 45% at matchpoints and slightly negative at IMPs. That doesn't tell us much about how well a 1NT overcall worked out on average, because:- We don't know what the matchpoint or IMP expectation was if the player passed instead of overcalling 1NT.- We don't know what happened on the deals where the 1NT overcall wasn't passed out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfa1010 Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 Auto 1N for me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mycroft Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 I play "good 15 to 18", and this isn't a good 15. My teacher (co-)invented Raptor NT overcalls simply because they kept having it go 1x-1NT-X and the world ended, no matter how strong they pushed the lower end of the overcall (until it got to the point where they weren't overcalling it at all). I agree with those who think that it's too good a weapon to pitch completely (although if partner wanted to play Raptor, I'd probably do it), but facing a passed hand vul at IMPs is exactly the time I don't feel like sticking my neck out - especially if partner has the not-quite-broke hand which means "we're going to get doubled, and they don't have enough for game". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 Also auto 1 NT for me. If it was not this topic, i would probably bet a lot of money that even BBF members would bid 1 NT unanimously with this, obviously i was wrong about unanimous part about BBF, again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcphee Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like to have 2 aces with marginal NT overcalls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like to have positional values for marginal 1NT overcalls. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveMoe Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like to have a balanced hand in my agreed range with a stopper or more for my NT overcalls. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnu Posted February 10, 2014 Report Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like to have 2 aces with marginal NT overcalls.I like to have a good play for 7 tricks. When I don't have any play for 7 tricks, I like not getting doubled. When I have no play for 7 tricks and am doubled, I like not playing rubber bridge for money. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 If RHO has ♥AQ this hand is worth around 19. If we can guess RHO has ♥Q10 it will be as well. Sadly it was LHO who had ♥Qxx(x) on this hand. Another way of saying the same is that if you switch West and North, 3NT is a make. I would lead ♥J against 3♥, don't like it much though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 I like to have a balanced hand in my agreed range with a stopper or more for my NT overcalls.I thought you played the stopper as optional Timo. :ph34r: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhm Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 Also auto 1 NT for me. If it was not this topic, i would probably bet a lot of money that even BBF members would bid 1 NT unanimously with this, obviously i was wrong about unanimous part about BBF, again.I like to have a balanced hand in my agreed range with a stopper or more for my NT overcalls.Maybe you should change your agreed range for an 1NT overcall when 1) Partner has passed already and2) you are vulnerable and3) you play IMPs not MP Those conditions matter Rainer Herrmann Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 1NT seems canonical, but if pard is a sensible bidder dbl also comes to mind. why? because you're in excellent shape whatever the reply except 2D. And even if pard bids 2D, you might get away with making it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe you should change your agreed range for an 1NT overcall when 1) Partner has passed already and2) you are vulnerable and3) you play IMPs not MP Those conditions matter Rainer HerrmannAll vul is an argument against competing for the partscore at matchpoints. Since game is still possible (I like to be in 23-24 hcp games with positional values and most hcp known to be on my right), I don't think it's an argument against bidding 1NT at IMPs.I am much more likely to pass this hand at MPs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfa1010 Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 All vul is an argument against competing for the partscore at matchpoints. Since game is still possible (I like to be in 23-24 hcp games with positional values and most hcp known to be on my right), I don't think it's an argument against bidding 1NT at IMPs.I am much more likely to pass this hand at MPs.I agree. A big upside with 1N is finding games. At matchpoint we have -200 looming as a disaster, which is just a scratch at imps.I would bid 1N at both scorings though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhm Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 All vul is an argument against competing for the partscore at matchpoints. Since game is still possible (I like to be in 23-24 hcp games with positional values and most hcp known to be on my right), I don't think it's an argument against bidding 1NT at IMPs.I am much more likely to pass this hand at MPs.It is possible when partner has passed and RHO opened the bidding with a five card or longer major and you hold 15 HCP balanced that you can make 3NT and partner will bid it. But claiming that vulnerable game chances from your side opposite 8-9 HCP balanced should be reasonable is a stretch. For starters it is unclear how often you would be able to get to dummy when RHO has an opening bid. Nor is it likely that opponents will have much difficulty finding the best lead. A heart lead will often spell defeat, whether you have a double stop or not. Whatever, for every time your passed partner will attempt or bid 3NT (and you would certainly not accept any invitations) you can ask yourself what would have happened if your partner's hand would be exchanged with LHO? That looks easy to me. You will usually have the pleasure to play your contract doubled and now the entry situation to dummy might get desperate. So the frequency for telephone numbers against you will be much higher than 3NT games you will reach and make. I would want better odds before putting my neck on the line and the odds change significantly in your favour, if your notrump overcalls start a bit higher vulnerable opposite a passed partner. Rainer Herrmann Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszes Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 When we open 1N 15-17 (with 15) we start with around a 45% chance we have a game. On average this hand we can expect marginal game chances to top out at around 33% and we know our rho has a longish heart suit and the probable entries to use it making that 33% look awfully thin. Too much risk for too little reward especially since we might even be a tad below 15. The fact that, on average, we may win a positive score in the part score battle does little to offset the rather sizeable risk of getting slaughtered with a penalty double. It is precisely because of positions like this that have helped popularize ever weaker opening bids. Pass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted February 12, 2014 Report Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pass. This should be unanimous after partner has passed and you hve no real source of tricks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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