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I'm putting club Ace in the East hand; therefore the spade finesse has to work. I'll take opening lead with diamond King in Hand, play to the heart Ace, and low heart back to the King, hoping for no worse than a 3-1 split.

 

Now a spade to the Queen, holding my breath, and if it holds, play the spade Ace. If there was singleton spade, hope that the singleton holder also had only two hearts. Ruff a spade in hand, back to heart Queen, ruff another spade if necessary, then back to diamond Ace to cash your good spades.

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Why do I not have enough entries to ruff two clubs? Win the lead on the board, play the club, win the trump return in hand (assuming that is the return) ruff the club, back to the diamond, ruff the club, ruff the diamond back to hand and draw the trump. If I am not overruffed, this seems to work if the spade king is onside. Now perhaps I see a possible problem. Suppose that on the club king they take their ace and lead a spade, not a trump I win the Queen. Now what? I play a diamond to the king, ruff a club. If trumps are not 2-2 I may have some trouble if I come to hand with a trump, ruff a club, and ruff a diamond back to hand. So I think I can ruff two clubs, but it may not be the right line.

 

 

One club ruff plus the spade finesse comes to 2+6+2+1=11 tricks. So I need to ruff two clubs, or I need to establish spades.

 

If the spade king is offside I am down, place that card with West. If the spades are 3-2 I can easily get home by establishing the spades. I see the problem as: How to I cater to a 4-1 spade split without destroying my chances when spades are 3-2? For example, if I ruff a club before playing on spades I could cash the other diamond and run the hearts. If West started with four spades and the club queen, he is squeezed. The problem is that if he started with three spades and not the club queen I have destroyed my entries and I go down in a cold contract. Catering to a 4-1 split and going down when they split 3-2 would be embarrassing.

 

Maybe I am missing something but I go with the djarva line: Win the lead in hand and play two rounds of trump ending in hand, leaving a high heart on the board. . If trumps are 2-2 then you can easily handle a 4-1 spade split with the king onside. Spade to Q, cash the ace, ruff a spade, back in diamonds, ruff a spade, dummy is up except for the one club loser. . If hearts are 3-1 you are still ok of the spades are 3-2 and you might be ok if they are 4-1. If the three hearts, as well as the four spades, lie with West there is no problem, After ruffing the third spade you get back with a trump and ruff another spade, establishing your last two spades and you still have an entry via the diamonds. However, if East holds one spade and three hearts, he will ruff the ace of spades when you play it, and you no longer have enough entries to establish spades and get to them. I see no way around this that doesn't endanger the contract on the more likely 3-2 spade split.

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To take the spade finesse and ruff the two clubs you need three entries to hand, if you win the diamond lead on table and play a club, you get only KD, diamond ruff, and wouldhave to overtake a trump for a third entry to drawy trumps. Thus ruffing two clubs relys on the hearts being 2-2 or singleton ten coming down.

 

I would just win the diamond in hand, cash two trumps and take the spade finesse. If this holds, I will cash the spade ace, and make when spades are 3-2 with K onside, or when spades are 4-1 and I can ruff them out using dummies remaining trump as an entry to ruff another one. In theory I could cater to a 5-0 spade break, but only by rising going off when trumps are 2-2 and spades are 4-1.

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Thinking out loud...

 

It appears that the losers are as follows:

 

1S (potentially)

No H

No D

1C (Unless you opps are sleepy)

 

This said, the spade finesse has to work (or you could drop the king, but that is nowhere near the % play)

 

I tend to assume that E has A because W didn't X 5C as a lead director. Of course, this is no certainty by any means.

 

I plan to win diamond in dummy, play to(hearts)K, then a small . I'm not expecting any unusual distribution in diamonds, so I can ruff two clubs safely and take the spade finesse

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I plan to win diamond in dummy, play to(hearts)K, then a small . I'm not expecting any unusual distribution in diamonds, so I can ruff two clubs safely and take the spade finesse

 

If you play a heart before you lead the club the oppoents can play another heart and you are not ruffing two clubs.

 

The spade king must be onside for there to be a chance so assume this is so. After that it comes to either trying for two club ruffs (which you can do but it is tough on your trump holding) or trying to establish, and get to, long spades. If you look at what is needed for each line to succeed, I think you will go with establishing the spades

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I'm putting club Ace in the East hand; therefore the spade finesse has to work. I'll take opening lead with diamond King in Hand, play to the heart Ace, and low heart back to the King, hoping for no worse than a 3-1 split. Now a spade to the Queen, holding my breath, and if it holds, play the spade Ace. If there was singleton spade, hope that the singleton holder also had only two hearts. Ruff a spade in hand, back to heart Queen, ruff another spade if necessary, then back to diamond Ace to cash your good spades.
When djarv47's sensible line makes the contract, it often makes an overtrick :)
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Actual result: This was one I got away with misplaying last weekend. I think djarv47's line is right (and it would also work at the table).

 

I decided that going for club ruffs essentially relied on trump 22 + spade K onside and that I'd have better chances going after spades. I decided I wanted to be able to be in hand after pulling 3 rounds of trump for the spade finesse so I won the opening lead in hand and played the AQ of hearts (I should have won in hand then played A then J allowing myself to fall back on K smothering Q if I really want to pull 3 rounds and being in hand after 2 if not). Trump did split 2-2. But on my bad line I was now in dummy and wanted to take the spade finesse without blowing my possible trump so I played A of diamonds and ruffed a diamond. Now when I led a spade up LHO played the K. When I then cashed the Q sure enough LHO was out so spades were 1=4 (but with the K on!). I ruffed a spade in hand but RHO still had the boss spade and I no longer had entries to dummy (other than eventually ruffing a club). But I took the only play I had and played a club to the K which RHO won with the A. But now RHO tanked. Turned out RHO started with JTxx xx xxx AQxx and thus was down to only one boss spade and Qxx of clubs. If he plays the spade I ruff in hand and ruff a club to the board and enjoy the spades. If he plays the club Q I ruff in dummy and my hand is now good. If he plays a low club I win the J and cross ruff. He played a low club and I stuck in the J to recover from my bad line.

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I appreciate this hand and your description of your play. Bridge is played by humans and we all, or at least all of us who see ourselves as advanced rather than expert, make such errors. It helps to analyze later, and it is good to share.

 

West did well by leading the small club holding the queen. I suppose it took some time but maybe not long. You have ruffed diamonds and spades and opened 2 so your shape is not a mystery. A guess for you but good going.

 

 

Often I think that player level can best be judged by what the player regards as a mistake. On the I/A forum, I would call this a definite mistake but one such that we can all recall making similar errors.

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