competing all vul at MPs

[whereagles]

The point of 3NT is that pard is very likely to have xxx/xx of spades. If he has xxx, there's no way he'll balance (unless he has a monster) because he'll put you with short spades and hence no hcps (you passed). If he has xx, then he's likely to dbl (after which all is well).

 

Probably pass/4H is more sensible, but hey it's a guess.

[PhilKing]

The bias of my selection included no quacks which might cause me to open 1S instead, and I came up with KJTXXXX X AXX XX -- the 7321 pattern more likely to have heart shortness because of South's length.

 

My methodology was somewhat simpler - I cast the net much wider in terms of East's potential hands and then decided whether it was likely that someone would preempt on the hand the generator produced. My feeling is that your hand, although classic and the most attractive, is outnumbered by non-classic preempts (when East has more than one heart and/or no entry, 3NT does a lot better). In a recent European, most players opened 3♠ at game all on ♠KJ98754♥2♦8♣JT43. And the fact that we hold the AQ is a mild Baysian indicator that East does not bid according to Hoyle, but that is difficult to prove.

 

Anyway, whilst perusing my database for parallels, this hand caught my eye:[hv=pc=n&s=sa2hkqj75dqt6c953&w=sqt97543hdaj2cjt6&n=skj86ha92dk5cq872&e=sht8643d98743cak4&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=3spp3nppp]399|300[/hv]

 

It's a little different, since we are in the so-called protective seat, but our hand is significantly weaker. So who was the clown who balanced with 3NT? World number two, Claudio Nunes. If only he could cut out the wild overcalls, he might get somewhere.

 

The point is that there are some decent players out there who have noticed that, if we have a trick source and a good chance of shutting out the long suit, traditional yardsticks of when to punt 3NT are far too rigid.

[Lord Molyb]

I found an interesting situation in the 25 simulations I went through.

 

[hv=pc=n&n=s7hj3dak7542cak95&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=3s3n4s]133|200[/hv]

 

What do you do? What if partner had passed 3♠?

[the hog]

I would bid 4C over 3S if possible. For me this asks on what basis pd bid 3NT - a strong flat balanced hand, in which case he bids 4NT, or a long running suit with a stopper, in which case he bids that suit - presumably 4H.

 

Obviously that does not apply in your scenario. Here 4NT would be to play. Not sure what I would do, probably bid 6NT as I would expect partner to have 7 solid H and a S stopper.