competing all vul at MPs

[Fluffy]

[hv=pc=n&s=saqhaq9864dt3c742&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=3s]133|200[/hv]

[PhilKing]

It's very tempting to bid 3NT.

[the_clown]

I would pass, at IMPS its tougher.

[phil_20686]

Ill bid 4H.

 

At MP lho always has a tricky decision about raising to four or not when he has a reasonable hand, and basically any time they bid 4S I am happy.

[gnasher]

I'd pass. Any game seems to need quite a lot from partner, and I don't know which game to bid. 4♥ seems much more likely to provoke a double than a sacrifice.

[MrAce]

I would pass too. But what is tempting for Phil is also tempting for me, only if pd is aware of what i am doing, which is legally almost impossible.

[mikeh]

Ill bid 4H.

 

At MP lho always has a tricky decision about raising to four or not when he has a reasonable hand, and basically any time they bid 4S I am happy.

unless, of course, partner, with his stiff spade, decides to bid 5♥. My guess is that this will not usually turn out well

[HighLow21]

I cannot imagine bidding here at any form of scoring unless a gun is at my temple.

[gszes]

PASS

 

Much more tempted to bid at MP than at IMPS where getting slaughtered opposite a part score kind of ticks

 

partner off. We are in a VERY bad spot. We have not the slightest clue where to play or whose hand it is while

 

our LHO (very easily the stronger of the opps) has almost all the information they need to make a decision about

 

the hand. A 4H bid will not change their mind but it adds the possibility of a penalty X to their already vast

 

array of weapons they can use against us. It is only 1 board but still a bit too rich for my taste but give me the

 

heart J instead of a small heart and I will risk 4h so I have a ton of sympathy for the 4h bidders.

 

 

 

[PhilKing]

I did a quick hand generation and I am now felling a bit smug. I just accidentally deleted the data, but 3NT was pretty huge. :)

[Lord Molyb]

I did a quick hand generation and I am now felling a bit smug. I just accidentally deleted the data, but 3NT was pretty huge. :)

Hmm.... it just so happens you deleted the data, eh?

 

 

I'm in the passing camp. We will go down opposite a balanced 10 quite often (especially double dummy, which PhilKing's simulations use), LHO might be waiting with a decent hand and a double, and we're going to be in the wrong game every time partner has 3 or 4 hearts and can't bid them. In addition, if partner happens to have a good hand he will push us too high.

[mfa1010]

I'm in the passing camp. We will go down opposite a balanced 10 quite often (especially double dummy, which PhilKing's simulations use), LHO might be waiting with a decent hand and a double, and we're going to be in the wrong game every time partner has 3 or 4 hearts and can't bid them. In addition, if partner happens to have a good hand he will push us too high.

 

No we are not. 3N could easily still be the only winning game, if partner's hand is (also) balanced.

 

In the Friday night duplicate this is an easy 3N, but in real bridge I wouldn't do it. Give me a few minor suit quacks to boost partner's stoppers, and I'll be there.

[PhilKing]

Eespecially double dummy, which PhilKing's simulations use.

 

Please don't assume what you have no knowledge of. I don't use DD sims - ever. I am in the camp that believes them to be close to useless in the majority of scenarios.

 

I generate hands I believe to be consistent with the auction, estimating how the auction and play will go and take it from there. If you want to dismiss that, fine. I doubt I will have time to do another one, since it was quite time consuming.

 

If you want to do one yourself, go to http://www.playbridge.com and enter the spec. You never know, you might learn something.

[Lord Molyb]

I don't use DD sims - ever.

 

I generate hands I believe to be consistent with the auction and take it from there, estimating how the auction and play will go and take it from there. If you want to dismiss that, fine.

whoops, my bad.

[Fluffy]

There are some follow ups.

 

You can play the full hand here:

 

http://bridgegod.com/playprob.php?probid=162

[gnasher]

If you want to do one yourself, go to http://www.playbridge.com and enter the spec. You never know, you might learn something.

I did that, and I learned something. I like 3NT now.

[HighLow21]

If you want to do one yourself, go to http://www.playbridge.com and enter the spec. You never know, you might learn something.

I've generated boards but is there analytics? Can I analyze which contracts make, what the best bids are etc.?

[cherdano]

I've generated boards but is there analytics? Can I analyze which contracts make, what the best bids are etc.?

I am not sure how Phil is supposed to know whether you are able to analyse what would happen on any given deal.

[helene_t]

I am not sure how Phil is supposed to know whether you are able to analyse what would happen on any given deal.

Of course he knows. Phil has a very realistic HighLow21 simulator :)

[Zelandakh]

Of course he knows. Phil has a very realistic HighLow21 simulator :)

And probably a searchable HighLow21 database to go with it.

[HighLow21]

I am not sure how Phil is supposed to know whether you are able to analyse what would happen on any given deal.

I simply was asking whether there were any automated analytics on the site, perhaps that I'm not seeing--or if it is left to the user to perform any analytics on the output hands.

[whereagles]

I would join the 3NT bandwagon.

 

It's a guessing game after all...

[aguahombre]

Having never done any kind of sim before, other than in my fertile mind, I ran a small sample from Phil's reference site, and came to a mixed conclusion about a 3NT overcall.

 

My process might have been flawed, however, (or at least different from that of others).

 

Plugging in the South hand was the easy part. Next, I had to choose an East hand representative of what I think a red/red 1st-chair 3♠ bid missing the AQ should look like. The bias of my selection included no quacks which might cause me to open 1S instead, and I came up with KJTXXXX X AXX XX -- the 7321 pattern more likely to have heart shortness because of South's length.

 

Each sample derived was actually two..West and North interchangeable. The choices I used for South were 3NT and PASS, intending to bid 3NT if North balanced with a Double. No consideration was given to us getting to a heart contract now or later.

 

Win, lose, or break even for 3NT or Pass was then dependent upon:

 

-successful 3NT if partner would have floated 3S.

-What if Pard would have balanced with something else?

-Will partner allow 3NT to sit if we bid 3NT and it is the last successful contract?

-Will LHO raise to 4S with or without my 3NT bid? (biased by what I would do)

-combinations of the above

 

LHO didn't have a running suit to cash when partner would have reopened with a Double. On those we break even by bidding 3NT directly if CHO let's us play it there. But, if pard would have floated, LHO had cashers off the top a few times.

 

Going exactly minus 100 vs minus 140 occurred. At some point I got a headache.

[the hog]

It's very tempting to bid 3NT.

 

It is even more tempting to pass. 3NT is off with the fairies considering the fact that your Hs are not solid and you have nothing in 2 suits.

[rmnka447]

I'm a passer also, for now.

 

Any bid at this point in the auction is pure speculation on who has what. The hand isn't good enough to bid 4 ♥ directly here.

 

Maybe I'm gun shy, but that's from years of wandering into these auctions and having the corresponding West nail me.

 

So I'll await developments. If pard can make some noise in the pass out seat, it becomes a lot easier to make a call.

 

Since preempter can have a suit headed by no better than KJ10, I'd expect his/her hand to have some extra distribution -- trump length or maybe a second suit.