competitive judgment

[karlson]

[hv=pc=n&s=s6hk83dkj642cakt5&n=st2haq92dq83cq963&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=pp1d1sd4s]266|200[/hv]

 

1♦ showed 4+♦. Not necessarily unbalanced, but would only be balanced if 11-13 with at least 4 good diamonds (1N is 14-16 and 17-19 balanced opens 1♣).

 

Either player doubling 4♠ would be takeout. 3rd seat openings are "normal light".

 

How do you think the auction should end? Assume E-W are done.

[rhm]

[hv=d=n&v=b&b=13&a=pp1d1sd4sdp4np5cppp]133|100[/hv]

Maybe down if either minor does not split (likely), but then 4♠ might make.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[Fluffy]

it depends on how agressively you double 1 spade, over a solid double south has a double of 4♠, over a light double north has to double again, and over a not so so perhaps nobody can act again and 4♠ is the final contract.

[Endymion77]

> Either player doubling 4♠ would be takeout.

 

Really??

 

Auction should go Pass by South, penalty double by North and that's it.

[dake50]

Maybe down if either minor does not split (likely), but then 4S might make. -- rhm

 

*** To paraphrase Fluffy, it depends on how agressively you double 4S,

over a good controls + tricks double north tries slam,

over a 'some not-12-minimum' double, north must sit on his balanced 10,

and over a not-so-well defined double, nobody knows anything.

The same bug-a-boo call: not well-discussed, not clear on offense tricks suggested;

nor clear on 'we can set them' and 'no slam' = so let's defend clarity.

Nor also on what pass-this-to-partner means.

Which call by South suggests a double fit so 12 tricks? But needing negX to have an A + K?

What call suggests 6+ controls?

"Partner, don't worry about controls, just shape out to find our fit"?

How slammy is double? Or 4Nt? Or pass then 4Nt when North doubles?

In isolation - just this hand, 5m is not unreasonable.

But isn't it resulting when you present no 'slam/not slam' definition of your suggested auction.

What less could be held? What more would try slam? If these are middling hands? Are they?

[Cascade]

I suspect for many it will end pass pass pass from here.

[the hog]

> Either player doubling 4♠ would be takeout.

 

Really??

 

Not for me either.

X by Sth for t/o and X by Nth would be penalties.

 

Auction should go Pass by South, penalty double by North and that's it.

[rhm]

> Either player doubling 4♠ would be takeout.

 

Really??

 

Auction should go Pass by South, penalty double by North and that's it.

Too close for my liking at least at IMPs.

East West have bid 4♠ vulnerable with 16 HCP between them.

East as a passed hand should have more than just 5 card support for bidding 4♠ opposite a one level overcall.

That can only be side distribution

My guess is 4♠ will be one down at most 50% of the time and making otherwise.

If it is miraculously 2 down, game makes for North South.

 

Rainer Herrman

[Cascade]

Neither partner knows they are bidding on so few values. The negative double can be made on a much lighter hand as can the third in hand opening.

[gszes]

I would like the x a ton better if it also included an extra values attached to using it. We do not

 

have the extra values needed (IMHO) to use the x here but I have to admit I like the idea of

 

competing not so much because I expect to make but more as a form of insurance. My

 

singleton spade screams out huge trump fit and that alone makes the opps 4s a pretty big

 

favorite to make. If p has a minor suit fit and even around 5-6 hcp we should be able to hold

 

our losses to down 2 and if P is a tad stronger making 5 is anything but out of the question.

 

I would not make a 5c bid unfavorable and I am pretty sure everyone would at least consider

 

bidding 5c at favorable. The decision to act or not depends on how much risk tolerance your

 

partnership has. if it drives p to drink when they get x and go down 2 or 3 then you are better

 

off passing.

 

 

 

[ggwhiz]

Unless the opponents are nuts 5 of a minor is doomed on bad breaks and maybe severely.

 

Given that all doubles are T.O. (really?) it should probably go float and lose 3 imps to my partnership when we doubled or win 5 when I'm -790.

 

If I'm west the 1♠ bid might be on 4 good ones catching partner with 6 small and I might be going a bit out the door. :blink:

[shevek]

South could double.

4♠ rates to be 1 or 2 off. (If they each have a stiff minor, hearts rate to be 3-3)

Just as likely that they both have balanced or 5422 for -500.

North's double should simply show more stuff.

[aguahombre]

Andy had this one right off the bat. North had a negative double, South didn't have anything to do about it at the given level. NEXT.

[phil_20686]

I would double with the south hand and expect that to end the auction.

 

North cannot really justify pulling with a stodgy balanced ten count, and it doesn't look like there is a large fit.

[HighLow21]

There is bound to be some shortage for them to bid so high. For 4♠ to make they'd need either singletons in all 3 side suits (in which case 5 of a minor probably goes down) or a void somewhere--which is entirely possible on the bidding. The critical cases are:

- 4♠ makes (meaning 5m is almost certainly dead)--but you should bid 5m as a save.

- 4♠ fails and so does 5m--you should double.

- 4♠ fails but 5m makes--you should bid 5m.

 

I would figure the odd of these are, roughly, 5%, 75%, and 20%. Among the 75%, I'd say most of the time it's -1 but occasionally -2. The reason I say only 5% for 4♠ making is that it's going to be difficult for them to ruff a suit good and still have the entries to reach it.

 

Thus, double for penalty stands out a mile to me at MPs and several hundred yards at IMPs. When 5m makes there's reason to believe you might be about to get a -2 in 4♠, mitigating your losses at IMPs but not doing super-hot at MPs. But then again, for MPs, the "neither side can make" scenario dominates.

 

By the way, the fact that 4♠ doubled is takeout seems silly to me. It basically means that you MUST venture to the 11-trick level whenever they preempt in this spot. And if you MUST, I dig rhm's auction.

 

But I much prefer X (penalties) by South and North letting it stick.

[johnu]

East West have bid 4♠ vulnerable with 16 HCP between them.

 

You and I know EW have 16 HCP because we can see the North hand. Of course, at the table, South doesn't know that EW doesn't have 20 or even 21 HCP.

[jogs]

You and I know EW have 16 HCP because we can see the North hand. Of course, at the table, South doesn't know that EW doesn't have 20 or even 21 HCP.

 

That's why I would have passed with South's hand.

 

But North knows NS has the balance of points. North should double. It should just show general strength. South would then bid 5♣. Defending 4♠X only works with a trump stack.

[johnu]

That's why I would have passed with South's hand.

 

But North knows NS has the balance of points. North should double. It should just show general strength. South would then bid 5♣. Defending 4♠X only works with a trump stack.

 

Same comments about North. We can see that South has a nice 14 count on this hand, but in real life, South always seem to have a crappy 11 with neither great playing strength or good defense :(