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no control in the "4th" suit


manudude03

  

20 members have voted

  1. 1. Your call?

    • Pass
      0
    • Double
      0
    • 4NT
      4
    • 5D
      5
    • 5NT
      0
    • 6D
      10
    • 7D
      0
    • Other
      1
    • Abstain (would have bid inverted 2D or 3S splinter)
      0


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Total CCV is around 35~37 (w'b more if p has six+ card) . So it is between 6 and 7. 36+ is ok for a grand slam.

 

IMO 6=10 ; 5=10 ; 4NT=9 ; 7=6.

 

I think you're overestimating the chance of grand, even if you're not missing the ace of clubs, something like Qx, xx, AKJ10xx, Axx is still not great. I dislike 5 particularly at pairs where you will not make the overtrick in 6 opposite xxx, Q, AKxxxx, KQx that you might have made by blasting it.

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I think you're overestimating the chance of grand, even if you're not missing the ace of clubs, something like Qx, xx, AKJ10xx, Axx is still not great. I dislike 5 particularly at pairs where you will not make the overtrick in 6 opposite xxx, Q, AKxxxx, KQx that you might have made by blasting it.

 

 

I agree we'd get a spade lead after 4NT.

 

Yep, 5 leads us nowhere assumed that we will never get A, the biddings support this assumption.

 

I'd consider grand if I had been given one more heart carder, but still I would had started 4NT.

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Partner on this board had xxx Q AKxxxx Kxx, and there's no ruffs going so 6D was easy, make the king of clubs the ace and it's cold for 7 :)

 

And the A was in west... wasn't it?

 

Therefore jumping to 7 after Blackwood(?!) sounds good provided we have the Q.

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If I am playing strong jump shifts my failure to bid 2h over 1d would make 4n an unmistakeable

 

rkc for diamonds. If not playing SJS then I cannot be sure partner will not take my 4n as asking

 

about hearts. That may not sound like a problem at first but imagine partner replying to 4n

 

(thinking hearts) and then we suddenly bid 6d and they have the dia K hmmmmm are you sure

 

they will not try 7?? I am not and the possible confusion factor would keep me from bidding 4n.

 

Preempts work keep doing them. BTW I think 6D is a very reasonable compromise bid under

 

the circumstances.

 

 

 

 

 

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I think you're overestimating the chance of grand, even if you're not missing the ace of clubs, something like Qx, xx, AKJ10xx, Axx is still not great. I dislike 5 particularly at pairs where you will not make the overtrick in 6 opposite xxx, Q, AKxxxx, KQx that you might have made by blasting it.

 

How often is there a honor in the three spades drawn from 13 spade-deck? 29% < --- wrong!

 

Edited: 71%

Therefore chance for grand is not Good w absolute minimum.

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How often is there a honor in the three spades drawn from 13 spade-deck? 29%

Ignoring the auction, the chance of one or more honours from 3 cards is 1 - ((8.7.6)/(13.12.11)) ~= 80%. I assume your 29% is the calculation for no picture honour (with odds of one appearing being ~71%) but even if you are calculating something else entirely I am not absolutely certain why this calculation is relevant. As an example, the actual hand had no spade honour from 3 but no play for 7. Add the J and change K to the ace and the grand makes. So how does this bring us forward?

 

Just as an aside, the chance of drawing an honour from a single card is 5/13 = 38% so something must have tipped you off that 29% could not be correct for 3 cards surely?!

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Ignoring the auction, the chance of one or more honours from 3 cards is 1 - ((8.7.6)/(13.12.11)) ~= 80%. I assume your 29% is the calculation for no picture honour (with odds of one appearing being ~71%) but even if you are calculating something else entirely I am not absolutely certain why this calculation is relevant. As an example, the actual hand had no spade honour from 3 but no play for 7. Add the J and change K to the ace and the grand makes. So how does this bring us forward?

 

Just as an aside, the chance of drawing an honour from a single card is 5/13 = 38% so something must have tipped you off that 29% could not be correct for 3 cards surely?!

 

Sorry Wrong calc. 71% is right :huh:

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