Overall Frequency of Occurrence

[32519]

Can someone help me to check the overall frequency of these numbers for Multi which includes Strong Options. I ran this through BBOs Deal Generator:

 

ODDS % HCP DESCRIPTION OF HAND TYPE

MULTI

2.000% 5-10 6X♥ (♥ or ♠, can't be both at the same time)

2.000% 5-10 6X♠ (♥ or ♠, can't be both at the same time)

0.780% 20-22 Balanced

0.050% 17-24 4-4-4-1 hand pattern

0.050% 17-24 4-4-1-4 hand pattern

0.050% 17-24 4-1-4-4 hand pattern

0.050% 17-24 1-4-4-4 hand pattern

0.130% 15-? 7X♣

0.130% 15-? 7X♦

MUIDERBERG HAND PATTERNS (Can't be more the one at a time)

0.450% 5-10 5X♥ / 5X♣

0.450% 5-10 5X♥ / 5X♦

0.450% 5-10 5X♠ / 5X♣

0.450% 5-10 5X♠ / 5X♦

2NT FREED UP TO SHOW THE MINORS

0.450% 5-10 5X♣ / 5X♦

 

7.490% TOTAL

 

If I left any hand pattern out, which one is it so that I can include it as well?

[Cyberyeti]

Couple quite comments:

 

1. I've sometimes seen strong 5440 patterns (17-24 HCP) as part of the three suited pattern

2. I have ever seen weak 5-5 included in the opening

I wonder if the weak 5-5s are what he now does with 2M/2N having put the standard weak 2s and big balanced in the multi

 

Also, you probably overestimate the number of straight weak 2s, eg hands with 6 of both majors are counted twice, you probably don't open 6-5s in the majors and some people won't open 6-4s.

 

Also some people will open higher balanced ranges as well with 2♦, and we never limited the 3 suiters to 24.

[hrothgar]

Can someone help me to check the overall frequency of these numbers for Multi which includes Strong Options. I ran this through BBOs Deal Generator:

 

ODDS % HCP DESCRIPTION OF HAND TYPE

2.000% 5-10 6X♥

2.000% 5-10 6X♠

0.780% 20-22 Balanced

0.050% 17-24 4-4-4-1 hand pattern

0.050% 17-24 4-4-1-4 hand pattern

0.050% 17-24 4-1-4-4 hand pattern

0.050% 17-24 1-4-4-4 hand pattern

0.130% 15-? 7X♣

0.130% 15-? 7X♦

0.450% 5-10 5X♥ / 5X♣

0.450% 5-10 5X♥ / 5X♦

0.450% 5-10 5X♠ / 5X♣

0.450% 5-10 5X♠ / 5X♦

0.450% 5-10 5X♣ / 5X♦

 

7.490% TOTAL

 

If I left any hand pattern out, which one is it so that I can include it as well?

 

Couple quick comments:

 

1. I've sometimes seen strong 5440 patterns (17-24 HCP) as part of the three suited pattern

2. I have never seen weak 5-5 included in the opening

[PeterAlan]

Can someone help me to check the overall frequency of these numbers for Multi which includes Strong Options. I ran this through BBOs Deal Generator:

 

ODDS % HCP DESCRIPTION OF HAND TYPE

2.000% 5-10 6X♥

2.000% 5-10 6X♠

0.780% 20-22 Balanced

0.050% 17-24 4-4-4-1 hand pattern

0.050% 17-24 4-4-1-4 hand pattern

0.050% 17-24 4-1-4-4 hand pattern

0.050% 17-24 1-4-4-4 hand pattern

0.130% 15-? 7X♣

0.130% 15-? 7X♦

0.450% 5-10 5X♥ / 5X♣

0.450% 5-10 5X♥ / 5X♦

0.450% 5-10 5X♠ / 5X♣

0.450% 5-10 5X♠ / 5X♦

0.450% 5-10 5X♣ / 5X♦

 

7.490% TOTAL

 

If I left any hand pattern out, which one is it so that I can include it as well?

Let's deal with the easy ones first (these figures come from the sub-divisions of all 6,350,135,596,000 possible hands, and are not simulation results):

 

All 4-4-4-1 hands with 17-24 points are 0.1933% of the total; divide by 4 for any specific suit singleton. Including all 17+ hands raises the total to 0.1946%

 

20-22 balanced (4-3-3-3, 4-4-3-2 or 5-3-3-2) are 0.6494% of the total. If you stretch the definition of "balanced" the proportion will rise.

 

In the other cases, you need to decide exactly which shapes you are considering.

 

15+ hands with a longest suit of exactly 7 cards are 0.4444% of all hands; again divide by 4 for a specific suit to be 7-carded. This total includes 0.0123% for 7-5-1-0 hands, and 0.0006% for 7-6-0-0 hands, ie those that also fit a 2-suited category.

 

If we widen the scope to all 7+ card suits, then the total becomes 0.5005%, including 0.0003% for 8-5-0-0 hands.

 

Turning to the 5-10 hands, those with exactly 5-5-x-x (ie 5-5-2-1 & 5-5-3-0) total 1.9482% of all hands; divide by 6 for any specific pair of suits (you left S/H 2-suiters off your list).

 

The 6-x-x-x hands where the second suit is less than 5 cards (6-3-2-2, 6-3-3-1, 6-4-2-1 & 6-4-3-0) total 7.2578% of hands; divide by 4 for a specific suit. This becomes 8.9306% if you include 7-2-2-2, 7-3-2-1, 7-3-3-0, 7-4-1-1 and 7-4-2-0 shapes as well, and 9.1854% if all longer not-2-suited hands are included.

 

That leaves the 6+-5+ two suiters, 0.7524% in total, and comprising 6-5-1-1 (0.3425%), 6-5-2-0 (0.3163%), 6-6-1-0 (0.0356%), 7-5-1-0 (0.0537%), 7-6-0-0 (0.0028%) and 8-5-0-0 (0.0016%).

[32519]

Apologies, the OP is unclear.

What I am trying to calculate is the overall frequency of not only the Multi (on its own), but also the overall frequency of occurrence of the all bids that have been freed up through using Multi i.e.

1. Many use the 2♥ and 2♠ bids freed up for Muiderberg. These are the 5X♥/5X♦ etc shown here.

2. Many use the 2NT bid freed up to show 5/5 in the minors. That is the 5X♣/5X♦ 5-10 HCP shown here.

[hrothgar]

 

1. Many use the 2♥ and 2♠ bids freed up for Muiderberg. These are the 5X♥/5X♦ etc shown here.

 

 

Whatever this may be, it sure as hell ain't Muiderberg.

[gwnn]

Whatever this may be, it sure as hell ain't Muiderberg.

You are obviously one of those ignorant conspiracy-deniers out there, or even a conspirator. 32519 demasked our evil plans for world domination 6 months ago. :(

 

http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/61157-the-muiderberg-hoax/

[PeterAlan]

Apologies, the OP is unclear.

What I am trying to calculate is the overall frequency of not only the Multi (on its own), but also the overall frequency of occurrence of the all bids that have been freed up through using Multi i.e.

1. Many use the 2♥ and 2♠ bids freed up for Muiderberg. These are the 5X♥/5X♦ etc shown here.

2. Many use the 2NT bid freed up to show 5/5 in the minors. That is the 5X♣/5X♦ 5-10 HCP shown here.

Well I've given you the tools to calculate whatever you want. For example, 5X♣/5X♦ 5-10 HCP:

 

Exactly 5-5-x-x shape: 0.3247% = 1.9482% / 6

 

Including 6-5 & 6-6 shapes: 0.4404% = (1.9482% + 0.3425% + 0.3163% + 0.0356%) / 6

 

It's down to you from here.

[hrothgar]

You are obviously one of those ignorant conspiracy-deniers out there, or even a conspirator. 32519 demasked our evil plans for world domination 6 months ago. :(

 

http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/61157-the-muiderberg-hoax/

 

He also promised to go away and never again darken our door about four monthes ago.

[Zelandakh]

Similarly, if I am 5-5 with 10hcp, I am much more likely to open 1 of something than 2, whether that be Muiderberg, Polish or whatever else. Many players include Acol (Strong) 2s in a major in their Multi but it is difficult to convert Playing Tricks to hcp in a reliable way. In terms of the big balanced hand, I am not sure I have ever seen the range for that listed as 20-22. It is also unusual, albeit not impossible, for both big balanced and 3-suited to be strong options at the same time, especially when strong 1-suiters are also included. And has already been noted, most of those who include an option for a strong 3-suiter would be just as happy to use it with 4054 as 4144. Some will have continuations to differentiate between a singleton and a void too.

[32519]

Whatever this may be, it sure as hell ain't Muiderberg.

OK, 5M/4+m pushes up the frequency of occurrence substantially, to 1.41% X 2 = 2.82% for Muiderberg.

 

But I made another mistake as well – a Multi with the strong options can include,

1. A strong 4-4-4-1 hand, or

2. A strong two-bid in a minor.

It’s one or the other, not both.

 

I have added a poll to the OP to find out what is preferred by those who play Multi with strong options.

[32519]

Let's deal with the easy ones first (these figures come from the sub-divisions of all 6,350,135,596,000 possible hands, and are not simulation results):

<snip>

Thanks Peter, I found a Mathematical Probabilities Table on the BridgeGuys website. This table does not include a HCP range for any specific distribution.

[hrothgar]

Thanks Peter, I found a Mathematical Probabilities Table on the BridgeGuys website. This table does not include a HCP range for any specific distribution.

 

That, in and of itself, is telling...

 

It's almost as if shape and naive strength metrics like HCP are independent of one another...

[Zelandakh]

I have added a poll to the OP to find out what is preferred by those who play Multi with strong options.

In order of popularity I would suggest:-

 

big bal + strong 2 any suit

big bal only

big 3-suiter + strong 2 any suit

big bal + strong 2 in a minor (very strong 2 in Ben's system)

big bal + big 3-suiter

big 3-suiter + strong 2 in a minor

 

This is only a suggestion though; the last 2 I have never even seen. As usual with such matters, which is "best" depends on the rest of the system so is not a question that can really be answered in isolation.

 

 

It is probably also a good idea to point out here that not everyone that uses the multi opening to gain 2-suited 2M openings. This can also be used to plus a system hole (such as Ben's Roman 2M openings) or to get split-range weak 2s in the majors. The latter is normally done with a weak-only multi of course. Finally, a reasonable alternative, especially not vulnerable, is to play a Muiderberg 2♠ opening but 2♥ as both majors, assumed fit style (4-4 or better). I would not recommend that vulnerable although changing it to 5-4 when vulnerable is sound enough.

 

What are you actually trying to achieve with these numbers out of interest? We have been along this path before and the results were not altogether productive so forgive me for having my doubts this time around.

[Cthulhu D]

That, in and of itself, is telling...

 

It's almost as if shape and naive strength metrics like HCP are independent of one another...

 

To be fair, they are not quite independent, though for a simplistic analysis that's fine.

[32519]

In terms of the big balanced hand, I am not sure I have ever seen the range for that listed as 20-22.

Thanks for your input Zel.

I fully agree with thas as many players put all their 22+ HCP hands through their their 2♣ bid. I will adjust my numbers accordingly.

[32519]

What are you actually trying to achieve with these numbers out of interest?

Any system or convention that allows you to open more hand patterns with a relatively high frequency of occurrence should always get the thumbs up. The overall frequency of Multi (including the hand patterns for the bids which have been freed up through Multi) appears to have a pretty decent frequency of occurrence. From that, its a wonder that there aren't more people using it. An even bigger wonder, is why it isn't allowed everywhere.

 

Once I've eliminated the errors in my own numbers in this thread I'd like to see what that final frequency of occurrence figure is. Then I want to see how it matches up against sticking to the standard/regular uses of each bid i.e.

1. 2♦/2♥/2♠ all as a regular weak 2

2. 2NT as a regular 20-21 HCP balanced hand.

3. Whichever one comes out with the higher frequency of occurrence is what I intend using in my own system.

 

Your input thus far is highly appreciated. Point out the rest of my errors posted here so I can fix them to get to that final number.

 

Thanks again.

[Zelandakh]

Unless you want to go into one of the full assumed fit styles, the highest frequency will probably be along the lines of:-

 

2♣ = big 3-suiter or any GF or weak 2 in diamonds

2♦ = weak 2 in a major or 22-23 bal or (optionally) Acol 2 in any suit

2♥ = weak, 4+ hearts, 4+ spades (assumed fit style preempt)

2♠ = weak, 5 spades, 4+ minor (Muiderberg)

2NT = weak, 5+5+ in the minors or 5 hearts, 5+ minor (French)

 

You can look the above up at the websites of, inter alia, Chris Ryall (all including a coordinated (originally) Acol-based system that uses most of these), Gerben Dirksen (2♣) and Marvin French (2NT).

 

Whenever you include the weak 2 in diamonds into the 2♣ opening you pretty much automatically guarantee to open more hand patterns than Standard. Of course, more hand patterns does not automatically mean better - otherwise we would all be playing Forcing Pass or Strong Minor systems!

 

You should also consider the frequency of the trash multi, which typically includes most weak hands with a 5 card major in 2♦ and thus obtains an enormous frequency. Similarly for the assumed fit styles that I hinted at earlier. Again, Chris Ryall's site is the first point of call to find options for opening at the 2 level more often.

[lowerline]

In the Netherlands (home of Muiderberg) the following can be considered as expert standard nowadays:

 

• 2♣ = weak 2♦ OR semi-forcing ♥/♠ OR 25+ balanced OR game-forcing ♣/♥/♠
• 2♦ = weak 2♥/♠ OR 23-24 balanced OR game-forcing ♦ (Multi)
• 2♥/♠ = weak 5crd suit and 4crd or longer in a minor (Muiderberg)
• 2nt = 21-22 balanced

 

Steven

[Cthulhu D]

There are numerous combinations of nasty stuff possible. 2H as 4+ hearts and either 4+ spades OR 5+ clubs is extremely high frequency. Ultimately the sky is the limit - you're mostly constraint by system regulations and how much potential you lose in advancing.

 

The costs to advancer are non trival as well - because both me and partner believe in frequent action, we have a very overloaded 2C opening to enable us to play 2D: 4+/4+ diamonds and a major and 2H: both majors. For this and other reasons, we play

 

2C: Weak Diamonds, Weak Spades or various strong hands.

 

You never get those awesome 2S -> 4S auctions as a result. This has a cost that should be considered.

 

Unless you want to go into one of the full assumed fit styles, the highest frequency will probably be along the lines of:-

 

2♣ = big 3-suiter or any GF or weak 2 in diamonds

2♦ = weak 2 in a major or 22-23 bal or (optionally) Acol 2 in any suit

2♥ = weak, 4+ hearts, 4+ spades (assumed fit style preempt)

2♠ = weak, 5 spades, 4+ minor (Muiderberg)

2NT = weak, 5+5+ in the minors or 5 hearts, 5+ minor (French)

 

You can look the above up at the websites of, inter alia, Chris Ryall (all including a coordinated (originally) Acol-based system that uses most of these), Gerben Dirksen (2♣) and Marvin French (2NT).

 

Whenever you include the weak 2 in diamonds into the 2♣ opening you pretty much automatically guarantee to open more hand patterns than Standard. Of course, more hand patterns does not automatically mean better - otherwise we would all be playing Forcing Pass or Strong Minor systems!

 

You should also consider the frequency of the trash multi, which typically includes most weak hands with a 5 card major in 2♦ and thus obtains an enormous frequency. Similarly for the assumed fit styles that I hinted at earlier. Again, Chris Ryall's site is the first point of call to find options for opening at the 2 level more often.

[fromageGB]

> Unless you want to go into one of the full assumed fit styles, the highest frequency will probably be along the lines of:-

 

If you are going for frequency you should certainly not overlook assumed fit styles.

2♦ = 4+4+ majors (weak 2-suiter or strong 3-suiter)

2♥/♠ = natural weak 5 or 6 card suit

must rate a total frequency higher than most other combinations. I'll let you do the sums ...

[Zelandakh]

The OP already has issues with 5-4 preemptive styles so I strongly suspect assumed fit methods are going to be a step too far. And I do not need to do the sums because Chris Ryall already did them. :) The assume fit style where 2♦ is natural and 2♥ shows the majors will be more common than the one you posted. The classic example of this is Frelling but Ryall has a whole page devoted to this style so it seems easier just to direct the OP to the site and he can check them all out in one go.

[hrothgar]

The OP already has issues with 5-4 preemptive styles so I strongly suspect assumed fit methods are going to be a step too far. And I do not need to do the sums because Chris Ryall already did them. :) The assume fit style where 2♦ is natural and 2♥ shows the majors will be more common than the one you posted. The classic example of this is Frelling but Ryall has a whole page devoted to this style so it seems easier just to direct the OP to the site and he can check them all out in one go.

 

Can't help but note that the Frelling Two's were my own contribution to the milieu.

I crafted the response structure as means to pass the time when I was hiking from Pamplona to Finestere 10+ years back...

Good times...

[jogs]

Thanks Peter, I found a Mathematical Probabilities Table on the BridgeGuys website. This table does not include a HCP range for any specific distribution.

 

Minor mistake on their tables.

 

5-4-3-2 should be 5-4-3-1