ought to be simple enough

[billw55]

[hv=pc=n&s=sa74h5dkqjt2ckq86&n=s932ha8762da54ct9&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=pp1dp1hp2cp2dppp]266|200[/hv]

 

IMP pairs, both vul. 3NT was on and bid by half the field. Who gets the chicken award?

[wyman]

looks like a fine spot to me. rub of the green?

[Cyberyeti]

3N is revolting, 2♦ or 1N is where I would want to be, 2N at a pinch.

 

Note that you can't duck a major suit lead or they switch to the other one so you need the led major 4-3 or blocked and your choice of whether you play for ♣A or J onside.

[RunemPard]

I have no issues with playing 2♦ here...but at MPs I prefer 1N. We don't really want partner bidding 2♥ on their 5 card suit though, so I am fine with 2♣ followed by 2♦.

[ggwhiz]

Check the final standings. Anyone who got to 3nt on these cards should bring up the rear in a decently long event but granted when 1/2 of them do some get to rack up scores against other maniacs.

[billw55]

Interesting, thanks everyone. This was a BBO deal, I was north. I was wondering if there was anything better, since obviously neither hand is minimum. 23 good hcp (no wandering quacks) plus whatever extra value you give south's diamond suit didn't seem totally insane to be in game, vulnerable at IMPs. It is still kind of hard to not result myself sometimes.

[wank]

Check the final standings. Anyone who got to 3nt on these cards should bring up the rear in a decently long event but granted when 1/2 of them do some get to rack up scores against other maniacs.

 

rubbish. there's a bonus for bidding vulnerable games i hear. 1d-1h-2c-2d-2s-3s-3nt would be pushy but fine.

[ggwhiz]

rubbish. there's a bonus for bidding vulnerable games i hear. 1d-1h-2c-2d-2s-3s-3nt would be pushy but fine.

 

The cutoff for a profit is over 40% not 20%

[helene_t]

Note that you can't duck a major suit lead or they switch to the other one so you need the led major 4-3 or blocked and your choice of whether you play for ♣A or J onside.

West might be good enough to duck when you play a club to the queen but against random opps I like my chances.

 

North bid normally, South bid reasonably as well but he could have made a move opposite a conservative partner who is known to compensate for South's aggressive style.

[mikeh]

rubbish. there's a bonus for bidding vulnerable games i hear. 1d-1h-2c-2d-2s-3s-3nt would be pushy but fine.

deleted nonsense...thought it was mps!

[helene_t]

There is no bonus at mps for bidding vulnerable games,

but this was imps.

[mikeh]

but this was imps.

aaaargh....me bad:)

 

And thanks, helene, for posting so quickly and thus prompting me to delete my bad post B-)

[billw55]

OK, just to be clear, is anyone advocating bidding game with these hands, vul at IMPs?

[kenrexford]

My take, FWIW:

 

The first three bids are obvious.

 

Responder's first rebid choice was 2♦. Because a courtesy correction can be so horribly weak at times, North probably considered whether 2♦ was enough. If you assume the minimal shape of 5-4 in the minors, Opener is already known to be on better losing trick standing than the minimum 11-count with 4432 by about one tricks. North also has two Aces and what seems like a not unfortunate 10-9 in clubs. Thus, North is really close to a 3♦ call. The fact that the two hands play easily for about 10 tricks on average seems to support raising to 3♦. But, the fact that North has five hearts also argues somewhat against that call, because a 2♦ choice allows space for a three-bid sequence for Opener to show late heart support (if that is the style). So, a simple 2♦ seems fair but perhaps conservative.

 

Opener has a fairly nice hand. He has about a 5-loser hand with 15 HCP and shape. IMO, this may well be worth a third call of 2♠ to complete the pattern. However, if South expects North to aggressively raise diamonds, he may be slower to rebid a second time himself. However, South should expect a possibility that North holds unexpected values in spades and is giving Opener space to complete the sequence rather than raising and misleading Opener as to the location of his values. Give North, for instance, Kxx-xxxxx-Axx-J10, and 10 tricks are easy. The problem, though, is that South needs to be thinking about 11 tricks if his shape is working, or he needs primes (with the club King-Queen not right), for 3NT. So, while the playing strength seems good, where is South going?

 

If North had held xxx-xxxxx-Axx-Ax, 3♦ rather than 2♦ would make sense (and 3NT would make unless hearts were 5-2 or worse, not blocked, and the lead found).

 

If South had held Axx-x-KQJ10x-AQx, South could now bid 3♠, which makes on the same finesse without the risk of simply a bad split and flying the Ace to cash winners.

 

As it is, both are really close to thinking about it, neither slightly overbids, and a marginal game that might make is missed.

 

 

 

[GreenMan]

This is the sort of game Meckwell get rich on. If I'm bidding these pushy games regularly, I hope I'm about as good at declarer play as they are. (Of course bidding these games may be a way to become a good declarer. :rolleyes: )

 

In one of my partnerships, saying "Meckwell would've bid it" after scoring up +150 is how I say "It's a lucky make, we shouldn't make a habit of being in those games." This deal qualifies.

[ggwhiz]

OK, just to be clear, is anyone advocating bidding game with these hands, vul at IMPs?

 

IF one club honor is onside you have to guess it for your 9th trick, both you are safe comes to 50%. Having to duck a major suit lead once or twice and face a switch to the other one, 5-2 spades etc. and I guessed it to be 20% but it's a guess.

 

That would mean -6x4 = -24 imps for each +10 imps when it makes and I'm against bidding in the hopes of poor defense on general principles.

 

If I'm off on the percentages it has to be by a lot to turn this game into a winner. ie. If you judge this game to be 33% you will lose 12 imps (-6x2) for every +10 imps.

 

Note: I just realized, you can't afford to play a club to the king (after a pretty obvious spade lead) as you would have to open the heart suit to get to dummy to do it again.

 

Running the club 10 will go -200 IF it loses to the jack so change all the -6's above to -8's.