How to bid?

[eagles123]

[hv=pc=n&s=saqj64haj6dak54cj&n=sthqtdqj7cakt8652]133|200[/hv]

 

South dealer, no opposition bidding.

 

Our sequence was 1S 2C 3D 4C (minor keycard) 4D 6C

 

One down when i ran the J of clubs and Qx in east and heart finesse was off also.

 

felt the bidding wasn't great, so how best to bid this hand :)

 

Thanks,

 

Eagles

[aguahombre]

If 2C was game forcing, Opener should not bounce around with 3D. 2D is fine for the moment, and Responder can rebid his clubs without minorwooding on a hand with which he has no business doing so. The auction would then probably subside in 4NT; but 6NT by South looks to be cold.

 

If 2C was not game forcing, this hand illustrates a good reason to change and make it game forcing.

 

It is interesting that a strong club system would right-side a Club slam.

[Zelandakh]

Am a bit confused why you need the heart finesse. Can you not throw a heart on the diamond? Or failing that ruffing out the spades seems better than the finesse.

 

Anyway,

 

1♣ = 15+ nat/bal or 18+ any

... - 1♠ = GF, no 4 card major

1NT = relay, usually 18+

... - 2♦ = 6-7 clubs, 0-3 other suits

2♥ = relay

... - 3♣ = 3 diamonds, 0-2 majors

3NT = to play

... - 4♣ = extras, nat

6♣

 

seems right.

 

In Acol (where the 2♣ bid has not promised very much strength nor a rebid) it is hard and your agreement for 4♣ to be Minorwood helped. Over 4♦ I think North should bid 4♥ though to ask for the queen and then 6♣ over 5♣. If 4♣ had been natural it would lead to a very uncomfortable auction if South were to continue 4NT but perhaps South is too good for that and should try either 6♣ or 5NT (pick a slam).

 

In any case, within the system you play the given sequence is probably as good as you can do other than checking to make sure no grand was possible. The only real alternative I can see is for North to make a 3♥ grope over 3♦ and then take 3NT out into 4♣. That gives a similar scenario to the direct natural 4♣ but does not promise such a good suit so there is a bigger danger of ending up in 6NT.

[wank]

even playing acol 2d should be forcing. having to jump to 3d on hands like this is too horrid for words.

 

a normal auction in an acol framework would be 1s-2c-2d-2h-2nt-3c-6nt.

[aguahombre]

The problem is not that 2D could be passed ---it can't in any reasonable system. The problem is the inability to rebid 3C forcing unless game+ has been established.

 

Wank's second sentence where Responder artificially creates such game force with 2H on the second round solves it for the Acol players. Standard might have a problem unringing the Heart bell.

[Cyberyeti]

Playing the bent version of Acol that I play:

 

1♠-2♣

2N(GF not necessarily bal)-3♣(5+♣)

3♦-3♥(4SF)

3N-4♣

4♦(KC)-4N(2 without)

6N

 

2♦ as opener's rebid would be forcing so bidding this way shows a REALLY big hand.

 

Am a bit confused why you need the heart finesse. Can you not throw a heart on the diamond? Or failing that ruffing out the spades seems better than the finesse.

 

I'm guessing they led a heart through the A at trick 1, although that might encourage you to drop Q♣, on a non heart lead or played by the big hand you just have 12 tricks.

[eagles123]

Am a bit confused why you need the heart finesse. Can you not throw a heart on the diamond? Or failing that ruffing out the spades seems better than the finesse.

 

Anyway,

 

1♣ = 15+ nat/bal or 18+ any

... - 1♠ = GF, no 4 card major

1NT = relay, usually 18+

... - 2♦ = 6-7 clubs, 0-3 other suits

2♥ = relay

... - 3♣ = 3 diamonds, 0-2 majors

3NT = to play

... - 4♣ = extras, nat

6♣

 

seems right.

 

In Acol (where the 2♣ bid has not promised very much strength nor a rebid) it is hard and your agreement for 4♣ to be Minorwood helped. Over 4♦ I think North should bid 4♥ though to ask for the queen and then 6♣ over 5♣. If 4♣ had been natural it would lead to a very uncomfortable auction if South were to continue 4NT but perhaps South is too good for that and should try either 6♣ or 5NT (pick a slam).

 

In any case, within the system you play the given sequence is probably as good as you can do other than checking to make sure no grand was possible. The only real alternative I can see is for North to make a 3♥ grope over 3♦ and then take 3NT out into 4♣. That gives a similar scenario to the direct natural 4♣ but does not promise such a good suit so there is a bigger danger of ending up in 6NT.

 

yep H lead as cyberyeti guessed :)

[Zelandakh]

So you take the ace and cash ♣AK. If the queen drops you are home; if not then you ruff a couple of spades. If the king does not make an appearance then hope for diamonds 3-3. This surely (not calculated though, so might be wrong) has to be better odds than hoping East led from king-empty and relying on a first round club finesse. Even if not, at least if you make a spade finesse instead of hearts you will be doing so with more information and can do so into either hand.

[Cyberyeti]

So you take the ace and cash ♣AK. If the queen drops you are home; if not then you ruff a couple of spades. If the king does not make an appearance then hope for diamonds 3-3. This surely (not calculated though, so might be wrong) has to be better odds than hoping East led from king-empty and relying on a first round club finesse. Even if not, at least if you make a spade finesse instead of hearts you will be doing so with more information and can do so into either hand.

 

Of course this is desperately embarrassing when the heart finesse is right and clubs are 4-1 :), but it was the first thing I thought too.

 

Also diamonds do not need to be 3-3, the hand with the 3rd trump is allowed to have 4.

 

So much easier if you play a strong club or play in NT so it's played the other way up.

[lycier]

Sometimes,such a slam victory need more luck. The probability of twice finesse is 21.63% (maybe I am wrong ).

[cherdano]

So you take the ace and cash ♣AK. If the queen drops you are home; if not then you ruff a couple of spades. If the king does not make an appearance then hope for diamonds 3-3. This surely (not calculated though, so might be wrong) has to be better odds than hoping East led from king-empty and relying on a first round club finesse. Even if not, at least if you make a spade finesse instead of hearts you will be doing so with more information and can do so into either hand.

This seems off. First of all, taking the heart finesse you are relying on ♥K onside or the clubs coming in. Secondly, the auction screams for an aggressive lead, and screams for a heart lead, no reason to think East wouldn't lead from king-empty in hearts. Thirdly, you only have the entries to take a single spade ruff.

 

I think the heart finesse is the right play by a big margin.

[Zelandakh]

I realise you are a much better cardplayer than me cherdano but I am confused by your saying we do not have entries for 2 spade ruffs. It does mean blocking the diamonds (using honour on honour as an entry) but I was quite up front about needing 3-3 diamonds rather than 4-2 with length by the ♣Q - it is not like we need the fourth diamond trick if spades come in. Even if we decide that 2 finesses are better odds, something I offered as a possibility, going for the heart finesse rather than spades seems a little bit like an unlucky expert play to me. Sure the auction screams aggressive lead to you but perhaps I play against I/A players a little more than you do because they just do not lead from king-empty against strong hands often, regardless of the auction. Therefore, in this forum I am confident that the heart finesse is not the right play.

[eagles123]

So you take the ace and cash ♣AK. If the queen drops you are home; if not then you ruff a couple of spades. If the king does not make an appearance then hope for diamonds 3-3. This surely (not calculated though, so might be wrong) has to be better odds than hoping East led from king-empty and relying on a first round club finesse. Even if not, at least if you make a spade finesse instead of hearts you will be doing so with more information and can do so into either hand.

 

I kinda thought H lead was pretty automatic on this auction regardless of holding the K or not, so better to play low on the lead - the leader was probably the best player in the room (not that its saying much :D), but obviously your line would have worked!

[cherdano]

I realise you are a much better cardplayer than me cherdano but I am confused by your saying we do not have entries for 2 spade ruffs. It does mean blocking the diamonds (using honour on honour as an entry) but I was quite up front about needing 3-3 diamonds rather than 4-2 with length by the ♣Q - it is not like we need the fourth diamond trick if spades come in. Even if we decide that 2 finesses are better odds, something I offered as a possibility, going for the heart finesse rather than spades seems a little bit like an unlucky expert play to me. Sure the auction screams aggressive lead to you but perhaps I play against I/A players a little more than you do because they just do not lead from king-empty against strong hands often, regardless of the auction. Therefore, in this forum I am confident that the heart finesse is not the right play.

I don't really know about your inference. Intermediate players may have heard of leading the unbid suit.

 

I don't think blocking diamonds in order to take an extra spade ruff is a good idea - Kxx isn't that more likely than Kx, the gains from diamonds 4-2 the right way seems bigger. And I don't understand taking the spade finesse instead of the heart finesse: if the spade finesse loses, you are down immediately. If the heart finesse loses, you can still hope for clubs coming in.

 

The odds are pretty strongly in favour of the heart finesse at trick one I think. Your inference about intermediates not leading from ♥K would have to be a pretty strong one.

[Cyberyeti]

I realise you are a much better cardplayer than me cherdano but I am confused by your saying we do not have entries for 2 spade ruffs. It does mean blocking the diamonds (using honour on honour as an entry) but I was quite up front about needing 3-3 diamonds rather than 4-2 with length by the ♣Q - it is not like we need the fourth diamond trick if spades come in. Even if we decide that 2 finesses are better odds, something I offered as a possibility, going for the heart finesse rather than spades seems a little bit like an unlucky expert play to me. Sure the auction screams aggressive lead to you but perhaps I play against I/A players a little more than you do because they just do not lead from king-empty against strong hands often, regardless of the auction. Therefore, in this forum I am confident that the heart finesse is not the right play.

 

I don't think you should worry about the spades 5-3 at all if you don't take the heart finesse.

 

Line 1 (Zel's)

 

Makes when spades are 5-3/6-2/7-1 with the K dropping or (diamonds are 3-3 unless spades are 6-2 with the K in the long hand and you get overruffed on the third spade)

 

Line 2

 

Ace of spades, ruff a spade and bang out diamonds if the K♠ hasn't dropped. Makes when diamonds are 3-3 or K♠ drops in 2 or diamonds are 4-2/5-1 with the long trump with the long diamonds.

 

Line 1:

 

Spades 5-3 = 47.12 x3/8 for K dropping = 17.67

Spades 6-2 = 17.14 x1/4 for K dropping = 4.29

Spades 7-1 = 2.86 x1/8 for K dropping = 0.36

 

So the spades come in 22.32% of the time

 

Diamonds 3-3 = 35.53, but if spades are 6-2 with the short spades and long trump over the clubs this doesn't help, if I've calculated this correctly, this happens 4.57% of that time so the 35.53 goes down to 33.50%.

 

22.32% + (77.68% x 33.50%) = 48.35%

 

Line 2:

 

As above, spades 6-2 or 7-1 with the K dropping = 4.65%, diamonds 3-3 = 35.53%

 

Additionally:

 

Diamonds 4-2 with the 4 with the 3 trumps = 21.28%

Diamonds 5-1 with the 5 with the 3 trumps = 5.11%

 

So we get 4.65% + (95.35% x 61.92%) = 63.69%

 

I've ignored some very low percentage possibilities most of which affect both lines, but I think the calculations differ by enough to show that ruffing the third spade is not a winner unless there's a big hole in my calculations.

 

Edit: Cherdano posted while I was typing this up

 

Additional edit: I should point out these odds are after playing A♥ and the 2 top clubs leaving only the Q missing

[Zelandakh]

but obviously your line would have worked!

That does not make it right and I am (hopefully) pretty open on here about cardplay not being my strongest suit. I was looking forward to seeing some maths on the different options which CY has now given. So (perhaps unsurprisingly) my line is bad and the choice between the other lines perhaps depends on what inferences you think you have from the OL. I stand corrected about taking the trick one heart finesse though - it seems it is better than my instinct guessed at.

[PhilKing]

We were told the lead was a heart but not which one. :blink:

 

It makes a pretty big difference if the lead was the two, the eight, or even the seven, for instance.

 

I don't know how old your Acol primer is, but it must be pretty old if you can't bid 2♦ forcing over 2♣. There should be many successful routes to 6NT now.

[lowerline]

2♣-3♣

3nt-5nt(1)

6nt-p

 

(1) pick-a-slam