Pass or sacrifice

[Hanoi5]

[hv=pc=n&n=sjt75hk6dt74cak75&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=1d4c(3%20Clubs%20would%20have%20shown%20Spades%20and%20Clubs)d5c6dpp?]133|200[/hv]

[EricK]

I pass. We forced him to guess, and he guessed. Maybe he's too high, maybe he's too low, or maybe he's just right. Bidding here seems to be gambling that he's guessed right.

[rhm]

I pass. We forced him to guess, and he guessed. Maybe he's too high, maybe he's too low, or maybe he's just right. Bidding here seems to be gambling that he's guessed right.

East bid slam freely. It is very unlikely he would do that with 2 black losers. He can hardly have a void in clubs and spades, so he is certainly not too low.

It seems East has 12 red cards, probably 8 diamonds and 4 hearts, a singleton club and a void in spades.

We have a club trick and might have a heart trick.

Nevertheless 6♠ must be cheap and would be unlucky to cost more than their vulnerable game.

I would certainly bid 6♠ at IMPs.

At MP it is close.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[Fluffy]

Partner has 7 or 8 bad clubs, but he is probably having a side card. Opponents have guessed right that their club void is useful, but they can still lose ♥K and another, still their slam is a favourite to make, something like 60%-65% I'd say.

 

On the other hand we have probably 9 tricks in clubs (7 clubs and 2 heart ruffs, or ♥K scoring). Maybe even 10 with partner's side card, but then we probably would defeat 6♦.

 

Since I have no clue of the contract at the other table I will use total points math which is far form perfect but a good estimation.

 

pass: 40% of +100, 60% of -1370 -> -770 or so

7♣: 60% -800, 40% -500 -> -680 or so

 

 

Its close, and we have to look at other possibilities, like opponents bidding 7♦ which I would enjoy, I think bidding on is correct.

[mcphee]

If I see things correctly partner pre-empted in C, my RHO made a neg dble and I hold what might be 1 defensive trick, I am saving, always. I have no idea what sort of conditions would prompt partner to bid 4C with a horrible suit unless they have 8 of them.

[mycroft]

Well, he might have pushed white on red because he can't bid 3♣ to show 7 clubs. He might have pushed white on red with 7 cards because that's what you do. He might have pushed white on red because he can't bid 3♣ to show *6* clubs...but probably not given it's QJTxxx at best.

 

But either they have a club void and are only losing partner's side card or they don't and they may not lose partner's side card. 6♦ is likely to make. But this is teams, we only have one pair that can protect us. Are *they* going to get to 6♦? Are their opponents able to make a natural 3♣ preempt? Did partner's pass imply that he doesn't want to save (as in, double says "I'd save, partner, if I had to choose")? Of course with QJ to however many, would he want to save anyway even without a side card?

 

I like the "mean score calculation" above, but it doesn't reference the other table. If our teammates get to 6♦, of course it's a straight up points calc. If our teammates get to 5 only ♦, though, then the calculation is:

 

pass: 40% of -100, win 12, 60% of -1430, lose 13 = -0.3

7♣: 60% of -800, lose 5, 40% of -500, win 3 = -0.6, with the vig that they might push to 7 and misguess (especially if I lead a *low* club).

 

So...how likely is it that the other table's N-S play Ghestem (and get it right)? How likely is it that partner has a 3♣ call, not a 4♣ call? How likely that in either auction (I'll assume that our teammates will double either call, and South will bid 5♣ over either) will our teammates blast the slam?

[ggwhiz]

I'm diving but my partner NEVER has outside defense for the 4♣ bid or why bid that many? Without the heart king I'm much more worried about the grand making but I'll take my chances here that they can't bid it.

[gszes]

7c is surely a stand out bid from the standpoint of its cheaper to sac in 7c than suffer

the loss of imps due to the highly probable 6d making 6/7. My main concern is that our

heart K is positioned poorly since lho surely has a bunch of controls for that 6d bid. I am

VERY afraid that if we push further the opps (with first round control of clubs) will push

to 7d and we have made things a lot worse.

 

There is also the small possibility that lho blasted 6 knowing we would prefer to sac at these

colors and they were sure the 6d bid would "always" get a 7c bid from us. They could then x

at one level higher making 6d a no risk all reward proposition. Worrying about the opps ability

to make 7 and concerned that we could be taking a phantom are enough to make me

 

pass

 

this time and I really like to sac when I can. As an aside--I wonder why we did not bid 4n over the

x at lest we could make certain p did not have a side ace (they should not but at these colors who

knows). No matter your blackwood responses (should be 0314 unless hearts is trump suit) this hand

appears to have an easy sac to at least 6c after p 4c bid so the 4n bid can do nothing but give you

extra information for later in the bidding.

[mycroft]

I'm diving but my partner NEVER has outside defense for the 4♣ bid or why bid that many? Without the heart king I'm much more worried about the grand making but I'll take my chances here that they can't bid it.

Again, it's possible that partner bid 4♣ because he can't bid 3♣ by system.

 

But if your partner will overcall on QJ-to-lots and "NEVER outside defence" (so possibly, but only possibly, the ♥Q), then the chance that your best score at this point is -1390 is pretty high. Still want to roll the dice on them guessing to bid the grand?

[Fluffy]

Again, it's possible that partner bid 4♣ because he can't bid 3♣ by system.

 

But if your partner will overcall on QJ-to-lots and "NEVER outside defence" (so possibly, but only possibly, the ♥Q), then the chance that your best score at this point is -1390 is pretty high. Still want to roll the dice on them guessing to bid the grand?

 

If we assume that ♥K is half a trick it is obviously worth it to push them to 7, perhaps not always, but compensates with partner having some outiside card. Add to the equation that they might double us instead and...

[mycroft]

You're a much better player than I, but when East has a million diamonds, and West has the majors, is the ♥K really half a trick?