Hand Evaluation on 5332 hands

[aguahombre]

The problem, if there is one, is of course that it not only gives more information to opponents, it also gives more information to partner.

If we agree it is a basic condition of contest that pairs are expected to know what their 1-bids mean, I can't imagine how an alert or announcement by partner will be a problem. Responder is telling the table what Opener is showing; Opener knows what he is showing.

[NickRW]

I think there is a fallacy that occurs...

 

Yes it does vary according to what exact shape is opposite what other exact shape. The numbers I was quoting were averages over large sample sets. At the point you open the bidding (which is what the OP was talking about) you have no idea what partner has - only what you have - so can only go on averages - or your impression of them anyway.

 

N.

[benlessard]

IMO you should rely on the majors events stats by R.Pavlicek.

 

http://www.rpbridge.net/rpme.htm

 

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Holding 25 pts and no 5 card suits, 140 imps for 3NT-- 119 imps for partscores.

 

25 pts with 5 card suit = 418 imps for 3nt, 121 imps for partscores.

 

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24 pts without 5 card suits, = 323 imps for 3NT, 295 for partscores = 52.27%

 

24 pts with 5 card suit = 712 imps for 3nt, 433 for partscores = 62.18%

 

 

IMO its clear that THE FIRST 5th card suit is worth close to 1 pts when your aiming for 3nt since 3NT with 24 pts and a 5 card has a higher rate of succes than with 25 pts without any 5 card suits.

 

This doesnt take into account when you have two 5 cards suits however, the effect probably doenst add since you will rarely have time to established both suits.

[PhilKing]

IMO you should rely on the majors events stats by R.Pavlicek.

 

http://www.rpbridge.net/rpme.htm

 

---------------------------------------

Holding 25 pts and no 5 card suits, 140 imps for 3NT-- 119 imps for partscores.

 

25 pts with 5 card suit = 418 imps for 3nt, 121 imps for partscores.

 

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24 pts without 5 card suits, = 323 imps for 3NT, 295 for partscores = 52.27%

 

24 pts with 5 card suit = 712 imps for 3nt, 433 for partscores = 62.18%

 

 

IMO its clear that THE FIRST 5th card suit is worth close to 1 pts when your aiming for 3nt since 3NT with 24 pts and a 5 card has a higher rate of succes than with 25 pts without any 5 card suits.

 

This doesnt take into account when you have two 5 cards suits however, the effect probably doenst add since you will rarely have time to established both suits.

 

I think you are making a statistical error by treating hands where (for example) players chose to bid game with 24 points and a five card suit as representative of hands with 24 points and a five card suit as a whole.

 

Similarly, for the 25 points no long suit data, downgrading often came in to play - look at Woodridge's remarkable decision on board 6 to treat a 3433 18 count with two tens as a 15-17 NT. If the data included hands where both sides bid 3nt with no long suit, the results might be very different.

[benlessard]

Unless there is a study on hands where opener VS where its responder that has a 5 cards nothing we can do about it.

 

But these are hands where one table bid 3NT and the other didnt.

 

Hands where both tables bid the same contracts are not calculated. So it kind of neatly show that the FIRST 5th card suit is worth a lot because on close hand (assuming that the score is moslty due to bidding and not to declarer play/def) being agressive with a 5th card seems to reward.

 

Of course its not a lot of hands but its all top-level.

[jogs]

Hand evaluation is more art than science.

 

Point count was designed to measure the effects of honors. It doesn't do well estimating the value of length or shortness. What's the fifth card in a suit worth? 65432. Probably nothing. AKQJT. Five full tricks. AKQJ2. Probably still five tricks.

[Lovera]

On the face of it this statement seems wrong. Otherwise a combined 18 count would expect to give you play for game most of the time. I was going with the simple 40/13 = 3 points/trick calculation, so where does this figure hold?

This simply consideration done has started (toghether other ones) my valutation of the hand based on a (light) variation of that made by S. Stayman (maximum points in 4-3-3-3 is 37 for 13 tricks in NT ..)

[johnu]

This simply consideration done has started (toghether other ones) my valutation of the hand based on a (light) variation of that made by S. Stayman (maximum points in 4-3-3-3 is 37 for 13 tricks in NT ..)

 

???

[PrecisionL]

1385576707[/url]' post='766785']

And IMO at least disclosure is complicated by the ACBL's "state the range" with examples that only say "X to Y" with no caveats. So is "good 14 to flat 17" proper under this regulation, not withstanding that it gives more information than "14 to 17"? The problem, if there is one, is of course that it not only gives more information to opponents, it also gives more information to partner.

 

14+ - 17 I have seen to show a possible upgrade.