Help with a play problem

[phoenix214]

I was wondering, can anyone suggest me how to play the following hand

[hv=pc=n&s=sak2haq8da52cjt85&n=sjt75hj762dqj43c4]133|200[/hv]

The contract is 1NT by S, lead was 6♦, which is 2nd/4th according to opps methods if i recall.

 

E has the diamond king

 

[CSGibson]

What is the form of scoring?

[rhm]

I am not sure what the best line is but this is my line:

You have only one sure entry to dummy in diamonds. I would not waste it at trick one.

I would win in hand and play three rounds of spades from the top.

If opponents attack clubs you have a likely stopper. Even if West has the ♣9 and 2 higher honors he will need three leads from East and the defense must be precise.

I intent to get to dummy in diamonds to cash the fourth spade.

 

My initial aim is

 

3 spade tricks, 2 diamond tricks and either 2 hearts or one heart and one club if opponents try to establish clubs.

Meanwhile opponents are unlikely to get more than one spade, one diamond and 4 clubs first.

Even if opponents could win seven tricks first, they are unlikely to find this defense.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[phoenix214]

Scoring is imps, if that is important.

[lowerline]

Scoring is imps, if that is important.

 

Play low in dummy and win the ace. You cannot make an extra trick by putting in the Q or J, but you take your best chance for only one diamond loser.

 

 

Steven

 

[CSGibson]

 

If opponents attack clubs you have a likely stopper. Even if West has the ♣9 and 2 higher honors he will need three leads from East and the defense must be precise.

 

 

why does he need all of that, Rainer? One lead from East, lead back from W to E's club honor, and lead back from East...do you play high or the 8? W does not need HH9x, he just needs you to misguess.

[JLOGIC]

why does he need all of that, Rainer? One lead from East, lead back from W to E's club honor, and lead back from East...do you play high or the 8? W does not need HH9x, he just needs you to misguess.

 

I think he meant if west has HH9 third. If west had AK9x or KQ9x they usually would have led that over their 4 card diamond suit depending on the auction so that is diminished. I think LHO would usually not lead AQ9x (again depends on auction) but even then you will be on a heart hook since they have only 4 club tricks.

[gszes]

I am not sure what the best line is but this is my line:

You have only one sure entry to dummy in diamonds. I would not waste it at trick one.

I would win in hand and play three rounds of spades from the top.

If opponents attack clubs you have a likely stopper. Even if West has the ♣9 and 2 higher honors he will need three leads from East and the defense must be precise.

I intent to get to dummy in diamonds to cash the fourth spade.

 

My initial aim is

 

3 spade tricks, 2 diamond tricks and either 2 hearts or one heart and one club if opponents try to establish clubs.

Meanwhile opponents are unlikely to get more than one spade, one diamond and 4 clubs first.

Even if opponents could win seven tricks first, they are unlikely to find this defense.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

 

 

nice clean straightforward and beats the opps over the head with power.

[CSGibson]

I think he meant if west has HH9 third. If west had AK9x or KQ9x they usually would have led that over their 4 card diamond suit depending on the auction so that is diminished. I think LHO would usually not lead AQ9x (again depends on auction) but even then you will be on a heart hook since they have only 4 club tricks.

 

 

Still, you can play west for H9x or HHx...I'd be tempted to play for HHx because it would be unusual not to unblock from that combination, personally.

 

I was thinking about this in terms of restricted choice - if RHO wins the Q, and LHO the ace on the first two club plays, then do the restricted choice mathematics cancel each other out for the three honor combination, leaving psychology to figure it out?

[JLOGIC]

I think you are being too theoretical, they don't know our hand so with H9x or HHx they will return a high one since they are trying to set up clubs. Also, even if they somehow new our hand and returned low and we later misguessed we are still going to make it if LHO has the DK which is extremely likely on the 6 of diamonds lead (they would have to have led low from T976 which is already strange, and then RHO would have to play low from K8 which he might, but he also might not since it will appear to him that his partner has the ace and he will blow a tempo on getting his five card club suit going).

 

Winning and driving the spade is just extremely likely to work if we make normal assumptions like LHO is unlikely to have KQxx/AKxx or KQ9x/AK9x and lead a diamond from KTxx or whatever (or lead a low diamond from T976), and when he has 3 clubs we are almost always getting a club trick if they choose to go after clubs.

 

I will pay off to the parlay of LHO having HHx of clubs and winning and playing a low club back after having led the 6 of diamonds from T976 and their partner putting in the 8 :P It's just not happening.

[WGF_Flame]

I think you are not likely to go down even if you play Q♦ at trick 1.

If it holds you can play heart to the Q.

[CSGibson]

nonsense deleted. This appears to be a tougher hand than I thought - we might be better positioned with the Q of hearts at trick 2 rather than the AK of spades, sets up the same 1 trick, but has the possibility of 2, while either creating an entry or a tempo.