A little evaluation problem

[1eyedjack]

I don't know the right answer here, so welcome suggestions. About half the room got to this good slam (MP, robot tourney, best hand South). But not me

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South has a choice of initial responses: 1♠, 2N or 4♣. Any preferences?

 

If you choose 4♣ and hear 4♥ from partner, you are still worth another try, no doubt about that. So you now have a choice between

4♠ (Cue) or 4N (RKCB) Preferences?

 

If you choose 4♠ cue, then North has choices:

4N (RKCB), 5♣ (cue), or 5♥ (I think we can discount 6♥ as a choice here, but possibly not), Preferences?

 

I assume that you agree that if you cue 4♠ it is right to respect a 5♥ signout?

 

For what it is worth, I think that having earlier bid 4♥, North is worth some encouragement over 4♠, my choice being 5♣

[Winstonm]

I think this slam is really hard to get to because the importance of the 5th trump in support is hard to guage in the auction. From the opener's perspective, a 9-card fit is not so great of slam with the misfitting hands, and South simple cannot drive to slam alone.

 

I am pretty sure I would miss this slam, as well.

[RSClyde]

I think 2nt is the clear way to start. If partner shows a stiff spade (a very likely possibility when you hold that hand) you can move immediately to RKC and start counting the tricks up. If not then perhaps you can get him to cue bid the spade king and then RKC.

 

Starting with a splinter isn't a good idea when you're just going to be left scratching your head over a sign off.

 

Starting with 1♠ is beyond horrible.

[RSClyde]

I think this slam is really hard to get to because the importance of the 5th trump in support is hard to guage in the auction. From the opener's perspective, a 9-card fit is not so great of slam with the misfitting hands, and South simple cannot drive to slam alone.

 

I am pretty sure I would miss this slam, as well.

How can you have misfitting hands with a 9 card fit? The stiff club is great news for opener: he can still envision 3 ruffs even if partner does only has 4 trump. Opener was sleeping through the auction. The initial sign off is conservative but reasonable. But when responder takes another call? How is he not going nuts by this point?

[Winstonm]

How can you have misfitting hands with a 9 card fit? The stiff club is great news for opener: he can still envision 3 ruffs even if partner does only has 4 trump. Opener was sleeping through the auction. The initial sign off is conservative but reasonable. But when responder takes another call? How is he not going nuts by this point?

 

Maybe your opponents never lead trumps but mine do. When you are thinking crossruff, a 5-5 fit is a huge plus. The non-fit I mentioned is in the secondary suits. Usually, it is much better to hold KQx in responder's suit than to hold x.

 

This hand is classic crossruff - Aces, singletons, and lots of trumps - and ideal crossruff hands are difficult to determine in the bidding. Whereas, if the fit were 9-card and a trump is led, then you must have a 4-3 side-suit break and an entry to the long suit winner in order to come to 12 tricks.

[1eyedjack]

Starting with a splinter isn't a good idea when you're just going to be left scratching your head over a sign off.

That is a big "if" (edit, "when")

It is true that over 4♥ I gave a choice of reasonable actions (neither of which was pass, incidentally), but both of which lead to slam if North bids 5C over 4S, which I think he should.

Not that that makes 2N wrong.

[RSClyde]

Maybe your opponents never lead trumps but mine do. When you are thinking crossruff, a 5-5 fit is a huge plus. The non-fit I mentioned is in the secondary suits. Usually, it is much better to hold KQx in responder's suit than to hold x.

 

This hand is classic crossruff - Aces, singletons, and lots of trumps - and ideal crossruff hands are difficult to determine in the bidding. Whereas, if the fit were 9-card and a trump is led, then you must have a 4-3 side-suit break and an entry to the long suit winner in order to come to 12 tricks.

First of all holding AJ9xx I'm not sure that I'm going to hate a trump lead, that at least takes care of any trump losers and still leaves me 3 to ruff with. The long card need not be good, dummy may have a place to park it. Here's a 9 fit that is cold for 12 tricks: xxxxx, KQTx, AKQ, x and do you think partner's bidding over 4♥ with that?

 

Of course a 5th trump helps, if responder held Axxxx, KQxx, AJx, x slam is tougher: not doomed, but harder. With that hand he would have passed 4♥. Would partner holding KQx make it a little easier? Sure but that means that he has fewer values in the side suits. A singleton can be just as big and all of his high card points are located elsewhere. That AJxxx opposite a singleton and 4+ trump played for lots of tricks isn't some great surprise.

 

Yes cross ruffs are difficult to determine in the bidding... if you stick your fingers in your ears and ignore your partner.

[RSClyde]

That is a big "if" (edit, "when")

It is true that over 4♥ I gave a choice of reasonable actions (neither of which was pass, incidentally), but both of which lead to slam if North bids 5C over 4S, which I think he should.

Not that that makes 2N wrong.

That partner may well sign off over your splinter is a reality for which you should be prepared. Yes partner might get excited over a splinter, but a church mouse could bid slam here when partner loves their hand. The key is getting there when partner is reluctant. When you start by splintering and partner signs off, you just blasted past 3 levels of bidding space and haven't learned much in the process. You have several choices it's true, but nothing really tells you what you want to know. Also, with convertible shortness a splinter is misleading: AK of clubs is as good here as A of clubs K of diamonds, but upon hearing a splinter one will not suspect that.

 

This isn't that hard: just look at your hand and ask yourself what you need. You care about the A of hearts, the A of clubs, a 2nd/3rd round spade winner, and a another K: if you have them all, you can bid 7♥, if you have 3 then you can bid 6♥. The easiest place to start is looking for a stiff spade: there are LOTS of hands that partner can hold where he has one. 2nt gives you a perfect chance to find out and it may be impossible later. RKC can do the rest.

1♥ 2nt

3♠ 4nt

5♥ 5nt

(partner shows no kings, whatever that is in your system) and you sign off in 6♥ with 12 tricks counted out.

[BillHiggin]

I think 2nt is the clear way to start. If partner shows a stiff spade (a very likely possibility when you hold that hand) you can move immediately to RKC and start counting the tricks up. If not then perhaps you can get him to cue bid the spade king and then RKC.

 

Starting with a splinter isn't a good idea when you're just going to be left scratching your head over a sign off.

 

Starting with 1♠ is beyond horrible.

I have a simple reason to prefer 2N over a splinter under these conditions. Since I have a bot for a partner, I must keep in mind that bots tend to be walter the walrus when it comes to hand evaluation (they count HCP and have zero or less actual judgement) so, I choose the path where I will most likely be the one to make the judgement call. So, I ask about its hand rather than tell about mine and with this deal, that works well.

[1eyedjack]

I think that you both make a lot of sense.

 

That said, if GIB is going to include splinters in its system at all, I feel that it should be making adjustments to its hand evaluation when its partner makes such a call. And that evaluation should (in my view) justify a 5♣ bid having first signed out in 4♥ after the splinter.

 

Bill makes a sound practical argument, for what action you should take given the current shortcomings of GIB. I had hoped to provide a platform for improving GIB. Of course, if 4♣ was the wrong response, even opposite a perfect GIB, then the example is probably not a good basis for improvement.

[1eyedjack]

Here is another possibly poor choice of splinter

 

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My decision to pass 4♥ was rather unimaginative, regardless of whether or not 4♣ is the correct launchpad.

 

But personally I feel that with xxx opposite a splinter and a 6th trump, North is worth encouraging with a co-operative 4♦, At that stage you are not even committed beyond 4♥.

 

Note that at one other table the auction started the same way, and South followed up with 5♦ over 4♥, and North STILL signed out in 5♥. Hard to believe that South could have any more for that bid, although perhaps he could have bid 5♣ so North expected a club loser.

 

Basically, I feel that Splinters are a part of the system but that GIB pays no attention to them.

[Winstonm]

First of all holding AJ9xx I'm not sure that I'm going to hate a trump lead, that at least takes care of any trump losers and still leaves me 3 to ruff with. The long card need not be good, dummy may have a place to park it. Here's a 9 fit that is cold for 12 tricks: xxxxx, KQTx, AKQ, x and do you think partner's bidding over 4♥ with that?

 

Of course a 5th trump helps, if responder held Axxxx, KQxx, AJx, x slam is tougher: not doomed, but harder. With that hand he would have passed 4♥. Would partner holding KQx make it a little easier? Sure but that means that he has fewer values in the side suits. A singleton can be just as big and all of his high card points are located elsewhere. That AJxxx opposite a singleton and 4+ trump played for lots of tricks isn't some great surprise.

 

Yes cross ruffs are difficult to determine in the bidding... if you stick your fingers in your ears and ignore your partner.

 

Trump lead - club ace and a ruff. Now, how do you get back to hand? If you lose a spade at this point, a second trump kills the chances for 12 tricks.

 

Even with the real hand shown, if the support is 4-card instead of 5-card it makes a difference. Like I said before, if the fit is 9-card then it requires a side-suit 4-3 break, which is still 62%, but it is harder in the auction to determine opener's shape - if the fit is 5-4, it is the 5th club, established by ruffing 3 times, that saves the day.

[Winstonm]

I think 2nt is the clear way to start. If partner shows a stiff spade (a very likely possibility when you hold that hand) you can move immediately to RKC and start counting the tricks up. If not then perhaps you can get him to cue bid the spade king and then RKC.

 

Starting with a splinter isn't a good idea when you're just going to be left scratching your head over a sign off.

 

Starting with 1♠ is beyond horrible.

 

What if opener had: KQx, AJ9xx, Kx, xxx? He is now going to bid 4H over 2NT - how does that help?

[RSClyde]

Trump lead - club ace and a ruff. Now, how do you get back to hand? If you lose a spade at this point, a second trump kills the chances for 12 tricks.

 

Even with the real hand shown, if the support is 4-card instead of 5-card it makes a difference. Like I said before, if the fit is 9-card then it requires a side-suit 4-3 break, which is still 62%, but it is harder in the auction to determine opener's shape - if the fit is 5-4, it is the 5th club, established by ruffing 3 times, that saves the day.

 

Seriously? I'll play AKQ of diamonds and discard a spade. Now I have a shot at 13 tricks.

 

Yes a 5th trump helps, partner doesn't just happen to have one buried in with his diamonds, that's part of the reason he bid again. If his hand had been Axxxx, KQxx, AJx, x he would have passed 4♥. So when he bids again he doesn't have that hand anymore.

[RSClyde]

What if opener had: KQx, AJ9xx, Kx, xxx? He is now going to bid 4H over 2NT - how does that help?

You're depending on a set of specific judgment calls. It's not clear that this is a jump to game over 2nt. If one is talking such a pessimistic view of it, would you get excited over 4♣? How can you go crazy over 4♣ but refuse to cooperate over 2nt?

 

You have many stiff spades for every KQx. Furthermore, when partner does have KQx, that leaves fewer of his high card points working in the other suits so slam is less likely (unless he's just got a really good hand). When he has a stiff spade you'll accomplish the same thing and he still has his entire opening bid remaining in high card points.

[1eyedjack]

Out of interest, if you start with 2N on the OP, is it clear for North to show Spade shortage rather than Club length?

[RSClyde]

The standard treatment is to only show a second suit if it's strong. I think 2 of the top 3 honors is the standard. It's a frequency thing: the secondary suit is useful information when it's a runner, responder won't have 2 fitting honors that often.

[Winstonm]

The standard treatment is to only show a second suit if it's strong. I think 2 of the top 3 honors is the standard. It's a frequency thing: the secondary suit is useful information when it's a runner, responder won't have 2 fitting honors that often.

 

Personally, I think you are cherry picking - and don't get mad because we all do it from time-to-time in these forums, myself included. Because 2N may have worked on this hand does not mean it is the best bid - in fact, I would suggest that 2N is best used with a more balanced hand to pinpoint shortage in opener's hand.

[RSClyde]

Personally, I think you are cherry picking - and don't get mad because we all do it from time-to-time in these forums, myself included. Because 2N may have worked on this hand does not mean it is the best bid - in fact, I would suggest that 2N is best used with a more balanced hand to pinpoint shortage in opener's hand.

Unbalanced hands care about shortness too and you will not figure it out if you do not ask.

You have 10 hearts and silent opponents, there are lots and lots of hands with stiff spades, a very high percentage of which will produce slam since they still have all of their HCP everywhere else. This hand is not some anomaly. Once you find out that partner has a stiff spade RKC tells you everything else you need to know and you can set the final contract with absolute certainty.

 

Yes it is possible to reach slam without a stiff spade, they are less frequent, easier to bid anyway because they require more HCPs, and you still have chances if you start with 2nt.

It is the rare hand indeed where partner takes off to the races over 4♣ but does nothing helpful over 2nt, and when partner signs off over a splinter, the spade suit is still a mystery and you'll have no idea what the hand can make.

[1eyedjack]

One of the reasons that I was apprehensive about the 4♣ splinter is that most partners opposite a splinter would I think expect a reasonably even distribution of length, values and controls between the other two unbid suits. That may not be a justified expectation or an agreement, but I think that it is close to a practical expectation even so. That is probably what makes a splinter so bad in the second example hand that I posted in this thread, if perhaps not the first.

 

You say that a 1♠ initial response is "beyond bad". But has a couple of things going for it.

Just as 2N consumes less bidding space than 4♣, so, any by about the same extent, 1♠ consumes less space than 2N.

There is a possibility that North might raise Spades, for which he may only require three trumps, and in which case you can RCKB in Spades, where the KQ of trumps is of more value than RCKB in Hearts. You may still be able to sign out in Hearts (at least if committing to 6).

You are of course left with a problem of how to handle this hand, but just because I do not know the answer to that question does not mean that there is no answer.

[Winstonm]

Unbalanced hands care about shortness too and you will not figure it out if you do not ask.

You have 10 hearts and silent opponents, there are lots and lots of hands with stiff spades, a very high percentage of which will produce slam since they still have all of their HCP everywhere else. This hand is not some anomaly. Once you find out that partner has a stiff spade RKC tells you everything else you need to know and you can set the final contract with absolute certainty.

 

Yes it is possible to reach slam without a stiff spade, they are less frequent, easier to bid anyway because they require more HCPs, and you still have chances if you start with 2nt.

It is the rare hand indeed where partner takes off to the races over 4♣ but does nothing helpful over 2nt, and when partner signs off over a splinter, the spade suit is still a mystery and you'll have no idea what the hand can make.

 

There is some benefit to a 2NT bid because repsonder knows the fit is 10-card and opener does not; however, 2NT is not a perfect bid as it will miss a simple slam when opener holds KQx, Axxxx, Kx, xxx.

 

One must pick his poison and live with the results.

[RSClyde]

One of the reasons that I was apprehensive about the 4♣ splinter is that most partners opposite a splinter would I think expect a reasonably even distribution of length, values and controls between the other two unbid suits. That may not be a justified expectation or an agreement, but I think that it is close to a practical expectation even so. That is probably what makes a splinter so bad in the second example hand that I posted in this thread, if perhaps not the first.

 

You say that a 1♠ initial response is "beyond bad". But has a couple of things going for it.

Just as 2N consumes less bidding space than 4♣, so, any by about the same extent, 1♠ consumes less space than 2N.

There is a possibility that North might raise Spades, for which he may only require three trumps, and in which case you can RCKB in Spades, where the KQ of trumps is of more value than RCKB in Hearts. You may still be able to sign out in Hearts (at least if committing to 6).

You are of course left with a problem of how to handle this hand, but just because I do not know the answer to that question does not mean that there is no answer.

The problem with bidding spades is that you can lose the ability to put hearts in focus. Let partner rebid 2♥. Now what? Or 2♦, now 3nt over 4thSF. Plus if you aren't committed to slam it can be tough to return to hearts if spades gets raised.

[RSClyde]

There is some benefit to a 2NT bid because repsonder knows the fit is 10-card and opener does not; however, 2NT is not a perfect bid as it will miss a simple slam when opener holds KQx, Axxxx, Kx, xxx.

 

One must pick his poison and live with the results.

 

Why didn't you give responder the K of clubs instead of the K of diamonds? Now bid slam (slightly worse I know). He wouldn't dream of moving with xx Axxxx xxx AKx, and certainly not with Kx Jxxxx, xxx, AKx. There are lots of slams missed starting with a splinter, even excluding stiff spades. Then of course, since you want partner to go nuts with the hand above (a hefty assumption), why not Kxx, Axxxx, KQ, xxx? It kind of looks like the same hand to opener.

Just pointing out that no bid is perfect doesn't make any bid equally good.

[Winstonm]

Just pointing out that no bid is perfect doesn't make any bid equally good.

 

Quite right - likewise, pointing out a bid works best in a specific case does not mean it is the best bid in all cases.